Nieciecza vs Motor Lublin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza Fri, 13 Mar - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Nieciecza Nieciecza
1 Winner 2
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 5:00 PM
Krzysztof Kubica - 17'
Goal
|
Goal
Karol Czubak - 30' (P)
Bartosz Wolski - 36'
Maciej Ambrosiewicz 90+7' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Nieciecza 0–2 Motor Lublin. The result saw Motor Lublin take the points. Motor Lublin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motor Lublin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Piszczelok
M. Piszczelok
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
S. Mucha
S. Mucha
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
D. Rokosz
D. Rokosz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
VS
Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 71 L
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 64 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 63 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 62 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 68 L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nieciecza
39.13%
Draw
25.31%
Away Motor Lublin
35.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.34
59.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
Power Score
47.34
59.5
League Position
18
6
Global Rank
672
481

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nieciecza Motor Lublin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motor Lublin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.73
24.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.64
52.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nieciecza +2.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Motor Lublin -2.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motor Lublin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nieciecza Motor Lublin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nieciecza Motor Lublin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Motor Lublin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nieciecza Nieciecza Home
1 matches
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:05:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
M. Matysik
Poland
32 M. Matysik
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
A. Putivtsev
Ukraine
77 (C) A. Putivtsev
R. Boboc
Substitution
Romania
27 R. Boboc
M. Ambrosiewicz
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
K. Kubica
Poland
13 K. Kubica
D. Hilbrycht
Substitution
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
A. Trubeha
Substitution
Poland
53 A. Trubeha
I. Durdov
Substitution
Croatia
19 I. Durdov
M. Faßbender
Substitution
Germany
7 M. Faßbender
I. Brkić
Croatia
1 I. Brkić
F. Luberecki
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
H. Matthys
Belgium
3 H. Matthys
M. Bartoš
Slovakia
39 M. Bartoš
P. Stolarski
Substitution
Poland
28 P. Stolarski
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
S. Samper Montaña
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Samper Montaña
B. Wolski
Poland
68 (C) B. Wolski
F. Costa Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
11 F. Costa Conceição
K. Czubak
Substitution
Poland
9 K. Czubak
M. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza
Capacity
4595
Attendance
3452
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mateusz Piszczelok
Sebastian Mucha
Damian Rokosz

Statistics

Possession
Nieciecza
48%
Motor Lublin
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
20 Shots 11
64 Dangerous attacks 56
44 Possession 56
4 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 6
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
8 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Dribbles 9
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
24 Throwins 18
11 Dribble Attempts 18
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
9 Goal Attempts 7
87 Ball Safe 89

Attacking

103 Attacks 92
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

365 Passes 473
76 Successful Passes Percentage 81
51 Long Passes 49
29 Successful Long Passes 20
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
276 Successful Passes 385

Defensive

17 Tackles 9
6 Interceptions 11
3 Saves 6

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
22 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

17 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mateusz Piszczelok

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
6.92
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
6.49
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik Defender
6.51
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev (C) Defender
6.69
13
Krzysztof Kubica
Krzysztof Kubica Midfielder
6.61
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
6.85
17
Dominik Biniek
Dominik Biniek
Midfielder78'
6.74
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc Midfielder
6.62
26
Wojciech Jakubik
Wojciech Jakubik
Midfielder78'
6.66
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
6.47
7
Morgan Faßbender
Morgan Faßbender Attacker
6.7
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik
Attacker59'
6.82
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov Attacker
7.23
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez
Attacker65'
6.88
53
Andrzej Trubeha
Andrzej Trubeha Attacker
6.81
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek
Midfielder46'
7.12
Referee : Mateusz Piszczelok

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Brkic
Ivan Brkic Goalkeeper
7.66
3
Hervé Matthys
Hervé Matthys Defender
6.43
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
7.03
28
Pawel Stolarski
Pawel Stolarski Defender
6.67
17
Filip Wojcik
Filip Wojcik
Defender46'
6.5
39
Marek Bartos
Marek Bartos Defender
6.39
6
Sergi Samper
Sergi Samper Midfielder
6.61
21
Jakub Labojko
Jakub Labojko
Midfielder46'
6.45
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
7.1
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski (C) Midfielder
7.62
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker
7.3
77
Renat Dadashov
Renat Dadashov
Attacker75'
6.51
11
Fábio Ronaldo
Fábio Ronaldo Attacker
7.11
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven
Midfielder84'
6.74
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Attacker
7.15
29
Thomas Santos
Thomas Santos
Defender65'
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Hervé Matthys
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Renat Dadashov
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Bradly van Hoeven
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Bradly van Hoeven → Fábio Ronaldo
10th Substitution
Event
Dominik Biniek → Damian Hilbrycht
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Wojciech Jakubik → Radu Boboc
9th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Renat Dadashov → Karol Czubak
7th Substitution
Event
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Jesús Jiménez → Ivan Durdov
5th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Thomas Santos → Mbaye Ndiaye
6th Substitution
Event
Kamil Zapolnik → Morgan Faßbender
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Igor Strzalek → Andrzej Trubeha
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Filip Wojcik → Pawel Stolarski
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Jakub Labojko → Sergi Samper
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Pawel Stolarski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
39'
Event
Sergi Samper
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
36'
Event
Bartosz Wolski
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
Event
Karol Czubak
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
23'
Event
Mbaye Ndiaye
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Krzysztof Kubica
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
17'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Motor Lublin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews