Motherwell vs Falkirk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Motherwell MOT
2 Winner 3
Falkirk Falkirk
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Elliot Watt - 34'
Tawanda Maswanhise - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Barney Stewart - 3'
Ben Broggio - 45'
Calvin Miller - 62' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Motherwell and Falkirk has finished, with Motherwell securing a full-time 2-1 victory. This outcome aligned with the pre-match market, which favored the home side as the stronger team with a 48.8% probability of winning, compared to a 26.6% chance for a draw and a 24.6% chance for an away upset. Despite entering as the expected winners, Motherwell's victory still registered a significant deviation level of 51.2% to finalize the result in their favor. Motherwell dictated the overall flow of the game, dominating the ball with 62% possession while Falkirk was limited to just 38%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be mathematically evaluated whether the final scoreline was strictly consistent with the underlying scoring opportunities created by both clubs. The overall efficiency shift for the match remained in line with standard expectations. Additionally, the game concluded without any major disciplinary events or numerical disadvantages altering the tactical landscape, as zero red cards were issued to either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motherwell showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Nicolson
D. Nicolson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
R. MacLeod
R. MacLeod
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
S. Anderson
S. Anderson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
G. Soutar
G. Soutar
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Dundee Rank: 59 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Aberdeen Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 56 L
Aberdeen Rank: 57 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Dundee Rank: 59 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 6 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
48.76%
Draw
26.63%
Away Falkirk
24.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.75
60.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Falkirk
Power Score
66.75
60.05
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
268
306

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Falkirk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Falkirk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.26
35.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.39
27.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motherwell -0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Falkirk +0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Falkirk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Falkirk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell Falkirk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell Falkirk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Falkirk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motherwell
vs
Falkirk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motherwell Falkirk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motherwell 0.24
Falkirk 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motherwell Falkirk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motherwell 0.10
Falkirk 0.03
Motherwell
Falkirk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
20 matches
Falkirk Falkirk Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
8
Goals
27
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
27
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
Substitution
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
P. McGinn
Scotland
16 P. McGinn
S. Welsh
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
M. Emmanuel
Substitution
England
45 M. Emmanuel
L. Fadinger
Substitution
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
T. Sparrow
Substitution
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
E. Just
New Zealand
21 E. Just
I. Sa’id
Nigeria
90 I. Sa’id
T. Maswanhise
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
S. Bain
Scotland
19 S. Bain
L. McCann
Scotland
3 L. McCann
L. Henderson
Scotland
5 L. Henderson
F. Lissah
England
28 F. Lissah
K. Adams
Scotland
2 K. Adams
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
D. Tait
Scotland
21 D. Tait
F. Yeats
Substitution
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
C. Miller
Substitution
Scotland
29 C. Miller
B. Broggio
Substitution
England
11 B. Broggio
B. Stewart
Substitution
16 B. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duncan Nicolson
Ross MacLeod
Scott Robert Anderson
Greg Soutar

Statistics

Possession
MOT
58%
Falkirk
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 3
14 Shots 12
58 Dangerous attacks 29
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
0 Penalties 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 4
7 Successful Dribbles 4
11 Goal Kicks 7
1 Assists 1
15 Dribble Attempts 12
20 Throwins 13
12 Successful Headers 11
90 Ball Safe 74

Attacking

99 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
9 Key Passes 7
68 Long Passes 77
435 Successful Passes 239
525 Passes 324
41 Successful Long Passes 32
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
50 Duels Won 56
2 Saves 5
19 Tackles 26

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 15
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6
Jordan McGhee
Jordan McGhee
Defender73'
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Defender
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Defender
28
Luca Ross
Luca Ross
Attacker79'
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Midfielder
19
Sam Nicholson
Sam Nicholson
Attacker63'
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman
Midfielder73'
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Midfielder
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Attacker
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

19
Scott Bain
Scott Bain Goalkeeper
2
Keelan Adams
Keelan Adams Defender
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann Defender
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Defender
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker71'
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson
Attacker71'
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson
Attacker84'
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker
7
Brian Graham
Brian Graham
Attacker79'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tawanda Maswanhise
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+4'
85'
Event
Brad Spencer
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Ben Parkinson → Calvin Miller
8th Substitution
Event
Luca Ross → Emmanuel Longelo
7th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Brian Graham → Barney Stewart
6th Substitution
Event
Jordan McGhee → Stephen O'Donnell
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Oscar Priestman → Lukas Fadinger
5th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Ethan Ross → Ben Broggio
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Kyrell Wilson → Finn Yeats
3rd Substitution
Event
Sam Nicholson → Tom Sparrow
1st Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Calvin Miller
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Ibrahim Said
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
56'
Event
Keelan Adams
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Ben Broggio
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
Event
Liam Henderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Elliot Watt
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
Event
Tom Sparrow
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
3'
Event
Barney Stewart
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tawanda Maswanhise scores for Motherwell in the 94th minute.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brad Spencer of Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 85th minute.
84
Substitution Substitution
Ben Parkinson is substituted for Falkirk in the 84th minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Luca Ross is substituted for Motherwell in the 79th minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Brian Graham is substituted for Falkirk in the 79th minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Jordan McGhee is substituted for Motherwell in the 73rd minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Oscar Priestman is substituted for Motherwell in the 73rd minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Ross is substituted for Falkirk in the 71st minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Kyrell Wilson is substituted for Falkirk in the 71st minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Sam Nicholson is substituted for Motherwell in the 63rd minute.
62
Update Update
Calvin Miller scores a penalty for Falkirk in the 62nd minute.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Sa'Id of Motherwell receives a yellow card in the 61st minute.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Keelan Adams of Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 56th minute.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ben Broggio scores for Falkirk at the 45th minute.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Henderson of Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 42nd minute.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Elliot Watt scores for Motherwell in the 34th minute.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom Sparrow from Motherwell receives a yellow card in the 25th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews