Modena vs Spezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia Fri, 13 Mar - 7:30 PM
Serie B
Modena MOD
3 Winner 0
Spezia SPE
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 7:30 PM
Manuel De Luca - 29', 55'
Ettore Gliozzi - 59'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Modena and Spezia has officially finished, with Modena securing a decisive 3-0 full-time victory. The home side set the tone early, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, and comfortably expanded their lead in the second half. The contest proceeded cleanly without any red card incidents, ensuring both teams remained at full strength for the full 90 minutes. Pre-match market expectations favored Modena, who held a 53.8% probability of winning, alongside a 25.9% chance for a draw and a 20.4% likelihood for a Spezia upset. As the stronger team, Modena's win meant the final result was perfectly aligned with these initial market forecasts. However, the wide margin of victory produced a significant deviation level of 46.2% in favor of Modena, showing they outperformed the baseline expectations of a standard win. Interestingly, the visitors dictated the flow of play with 58% possession, leaving Modena with just 42% of the ball. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to determine if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Despite sacrificing possession, Modena's efficiency shift remained completely in line with statistical models, showcasing a clinical counter-attacking edge to seal the shutout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Modena showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Turrini
N. Turrini
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
A. Zezza
A. Zezza
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
M. Belsanti
M. Belsanti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
F. D'Eusanio
F. D'Eusanio
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
VS
Spezia R. Donadoni
R. Donadoni
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 58 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Venezia Rank: 69 W
Sampdoria Rank: 54 L
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 D
Sampdoria Rank: 54 L
Avellino Rank: 50 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 8 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Modena
53.75%
Draw
25.9%
Away Spezia
20.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.21
52.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Spezia
Power Score
58.21
52.32
League Position
6
17
Global Rank
518
669

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Spezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.19
14.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.14
26.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Modena +1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Spezia -1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Spezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Modena Spezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Modena Spezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Spezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home
5 matches
Spezia SPE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:13:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
L. Chichizola
Argentina
1 L. Chichizola
D. Tonoli
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
D. Adorni
Italy
28 D. Adorni
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
F. Zampano
Substitution
Italy
7 F. Zampano
S. Wiafe
Substitution
71 S. Wiafe
F. Gerli
Italy
16 (C) F. Gerli
S. Santoro
Substitution
Italy
8 S. Santoro
L. Zanimacchia
Italy
98 L. Zanimacchia
M. De Luca
Substitution
Italy
99 M. De Luca
E. Gliozzi
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Gliozzi
B. Radunović
Serbia
22 B. Radunović
P. Beruatto
Italy
11 P. Beruatto
G. Bonfanti
Substitution
Italy
94 G. Bonfanti
L. Vignali
Italy
32 (C) L. Vignali
G. Aurelio
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
C. Comotto
Substitution
Italy
34 C. Comotto
A. Romano
Substitution
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
A. Bellemo
Substitution
Italy
6 A. Bellemo
L. Sernicola
Italy
17 L. Sernicola
M. Valoti
Substitution
Italy
5 M. Valoti
G. Artistico
Italy
9 G. Artistico

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity
21092
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Niccolò Turrini
Andrea Zezza
Marco Belsanti
Francesco D'Eusanio

Statistics

Possession
MOD
44%
SPE
56%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 6
40 Dangerous attacks 44
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Throwins 22
10 Dribble Attempts 12
8 Goal Kicks 9
3 Successful Dribbles 8
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
3 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
66 Ball Safe 75
1 Injuries 0
7 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

97 Attacks 107

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 82
354 Passes 508
264 Successful Passes 416
69 Long Passes 48
7 Key Passes 6
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
25 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

16 Tackles 12
8 Interceptions 1
1 Saves 0

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

1
Leandro Chichizola
Leandro Chichizola Goalkeeper
6.96
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
6.83
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Defender
7.28
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
7.11
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
6.65
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku
Defender74'
6.72
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Midfielder
7.26
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin
Midfielder87'
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli (C) Midfielder
6.53
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe Midfielder
7.1
5
Alessandro Sersanti
Alessandro Sersanti
Midfielder71'
6.54
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
6.69
9
Ettore Gliozzi
Ettore Gliozzi Attacker
7.17
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes
Attacker71'
6.76
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
2
9.04
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Attacker87'
Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

22
Boris Radunović
Boris Radunović Goalkeeper
6.13
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Defender
6.62
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali (C) Defender
6.36
94
Giovanni Bonfanti
Giovanni Bonfanti Defender
6.01
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov
Defender77'
6.52
6
Alessandro Bellemo
Alessandro Bellemo Midfielder
6.29
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo
Midfielder55'
6.61
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Midfielder
6.5
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
6.77
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Midfielder
6.26
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli
Midfielder62'
6.53
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
6.6
8
Ádám Nagy
Ádám Nagy
Midfielder62'
6.5
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Attacker
6.9
19
Hamse Shagaxle
Hamse Shagaxle
Midfielder76'
6.64
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Attacker
6.25

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino → Manuel De Luca
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Yanis Massolin → Simone Santoro
10th Substitution
87'
77'
Event
Petko Hristov  → Giovanni Bonfanti
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Hamse Shagaxle → Mattia Valoti
7th Substitution
Event
Gady Beyuku → Francesco Zampano
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Alessandro Sersanti → Samuel Wiafe
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Pedro Mendes → Ettore Gliozzi
4th Substitution
71'
62'
Event
Filippo Bandinelli → Christian Comotto
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Ádám Nagy → Alessandro Romano
3rd Substitution
Event
Ettore Gliozzi
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
59'
Event
Manuel De Luca
Header / 2nd Goal
55'
55'
Event
Emanuele Adamo → Alessandro Bellemo
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Pietro Beruatto
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Alessandro Bellemo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Manuel De Luca
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
29'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Modena exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews