Modena vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia Sat, 21 Mar - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Modena MOD
2 Winner 1
Mantova MAN
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 6:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Alessandro Sersanti - 14'
Daniel Tonoli - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Davis Mensah - 81'

CONTEXT

The match between Modena and Mantova has finished in a 1-1 draw, representing a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Modena entered the fixture as the clear favorites with a 59.6% implied win probability, compared to just 16.1% for Mantova and a 24.3% chance of a draw. Although Modena held a 1-0 advantage at half-time, they were ultimately unable to secure the victory, meaning the final outcome firmly failed to align with the pre-match market. Mantova managed to control the tempo of the game, dominating the ball with 63% possession while the hosts saw just 37%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the draw was consistent with the underlying chance quality created by either side. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift was noted to be in line with expected patterns. The match was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were shown to either team. Ultimately, Mantova's ability to dictate possession allowed them to overcome their first-half deficit, frustrating the stronger Modena side and earning an unexpected point on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Modena showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
VS
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 53 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 46 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 W
Carrarese Rank: 55 W
Venezia Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 W
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Carrarese Rank: 55 D
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Catanzaro Rank: 61 L
Reggiana Rank: 48 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 8 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Modena
59.56%
Draw
24.29%
Away Mantova
16.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.53
52.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Mantova
Power Score
59.53
52.12
League Position
6
14
Global Rank
501
707

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Mantova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.57
17.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.46
27.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Modena +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Mantova -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Mantova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Modena Mantova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Modena Mantova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Mantova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home
14 matches
Mantova MAN Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
8
Draws
8
3
Losses
3
Goals
18
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
18
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
L. Chichizola
Argentina
1 L. Chichizola
D. Tonoli
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
D. Adorni
Italy
28 D. Adorni
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
F. Zampano
Substitution
Italy
7 F. Zampano
A. Sersanti
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Sersanti
F. Gerli
Italy
16 (C) F. Gerli
S. Santoro
Italy
8 S. Santoro
L. Zanimacchia
Substitution
Italy
98 L. Zanimacchia
M. De Luca
Substitution
Italy
99 M. De Luca
E. Gliozzi
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Gliozzi
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Castellini
Italy
27 A. Castellini
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Dembélé
Substitution
France
3 A. Dembélé
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
R. Kouda
Italy
80 R. Kouda
S. Trimboli
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
N. Radaelli
Substitution
Italy
17 N. Radaelli
N. Buso
Substitution
Italy
77 N. Buso
T. Marras
Substitution
Italy
23 T. Marras
L. Mancuso
Substitution
Italy
9 (C) L. Mancuso

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity
21092
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Andrea Zanotti
Mattia Politi
Simone Pistarelli

Statistics

Possession
MOD
40%
MAN
60%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
24 Dangerous attacks 60
37 Possession 63
1 Corners 4
20 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
1 Assists 1
11 Throwins 21
2 Successful Dribbles 7
4 Dribble Attempts 11
5 Goal Kicks 5
1 Injuries 0
6 Goal Attempts 6
72 Ball Safe 68
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 122

Possession

229 Successful Passes 471
8 Key Passes 8
70 Successful Passes Percentage 85
30 Successful Long Passes 23
75 Long Passes 57
325 Passes 556
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

2 Saves 2
12 Tackles 5
9 Interceptions 6

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 23
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

1
Leandro Chichizola
Leandro Chichizola Goalkeeper
6.84
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
6.68
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Defender
7.13
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
7.7
5
Alessandro Sersanti
Alessandro Sersanti Midfielder
7.32
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe
Midfielder46'
6.74
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
6.24
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku
Defender70'
6.32
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Midfielder
6.31
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli (C) Midfielder
6.93
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
7.01
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali
Defender87'
9
Ettore Gliozzi
Ettore Gliozzi Attacker
7.22
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Attacker70'
6.36
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
7.1
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes
Attacker89'
Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.35
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
6.59
7
Davis Mensah
Davis Mensah
Attacker76'
7.23
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
6.99
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
5.52
17
Nicolò Radaelli
Nicolò Radaelli Midfielder
6.42
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni
Defender65'
6.52
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
6.59
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.76
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
6.79
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso (C) Attacker
6.77
18
César Falletti
César Falletti
Midfielder77'
6.58
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Attacker
6.59
28
Maat Daniel Caprini
Maat Daniel Caprini
Attacker46'
6.56
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso Attacker
6.8
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini
Attacker46'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Davis Mensah
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Pedro Mendes → Manuel De Luca
10th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Alessio Castellini
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Cotali → Luca Zanimacchia
9th Substitution
87'
81'
Event
Davis Mensah
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
79'
Event
Rachid Kouda
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
César Falletti → Leonardo Mancuso
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Davis Mensah → Ali Dembélé
7th Substitution
Event
Gady Beyuku → Francesco Zampano
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino → Ettore Gliozzi
5th Substitution
70'
65'
Event
Tommaso Maggioni → Nicolò Radaelli
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Nicolò Radaelli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Tonoli
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Samuel Wiafe → Alessandro Sersanti
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Davide Bragantini → Nicolò Buso
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Maat Daniel Caprini → Tommaso Marras
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Francesco Zampano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Alessandro Sersanti
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Modena exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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