Modena vs Frosinone Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia Tomorrow - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Modena MOD
Versus
Frosinone FRO
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Modena host Frosinone in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Domestically, Modena sit 6th in the table while Frosinone are 2th. Power ranking favours Frosinone by 9.5 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Frosinone enters as the stronger side with a 9.5-point power advantage over Modena.
  • Form: Visitors showcase superior recent form at 30.67 versus Modena's 19.
  • Squad: Frosinone's higher power score of 33.25 highlights deeper squad quality than Modena's 23.72.
  • Efficiency: Limited data available, but proxies indicate balanced efficiency without clear dominance.
  • Transition: Frosinone's elevated form score suggests sharper transitions in open play.
  • Set pieces: Both teams rely on low-confidence proxies for set pieces with no standout xG metrics.
  • xVariable: Absence of xG data leaves expected goal variables unquantified for this matchup.
  • Market: Modena 39.7% (Δ-0.9%) | Draw 27.4% (Δ+0.1%) | Frosinone 32.9% (Δ+0.9%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
VS
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: D
Südtirol Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Mantova Rank: W
Spezia Rank: W
Cesena Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: D
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Cesena Rank: D
Sampdoria Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Modena
39.66%
Draw
27.42%
Away Frosinone
32.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Modena
-0.91%
Draw
+0.05%
Frosinone
+0.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.72
33.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Frosinone
Power Score
23.72
33.25
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Frosinone

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home
19 matches
Frosinone FRO Away
Match Record
6
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
6
Goals
23
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
23
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:06:27+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Pezzolato
22 M. Pezzolato
A. Dellavalle
25 A. Dellavalle
D. Adorni
28 D. Adorni
B. Nieling
20 B. Nieling
F. Zampano
7 F. Zampano
Y. Massolin
17 Y. Massolin
S. Wiafe
71 S. Wiafe
S. Santoro
8 S. Santoro
M. Cotali
29 M. Cotali
G. Ambrosino
10 G. Ambrosino
M. De Luca
99 M. De Luca
L. Palmisani
22 L. Palmisani
G. Bracaglia
79 G. Bracaglia
G. Cittadini
2 G. Cittadini
I. Monterisi
30 I. Monterisi
J. Oyono Omva Torque
20 J. Oyono Omva Torque
I. Koutsoupias
8 I. Koutsoupias
M. Cichella
16 M. Cichella
G. Calò
14 G. Calò
G. Kvernadze
17 G. Kvernadze
A. Raimondo
9 A. Raimondo
F. Ghedjemis
7 F. Ghedjemis

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity
21092
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Giovanni Ayroldi
Francesco Cortese
Giuseppe Di Giacinto
David Kovacevic

Expected Lineup

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper
6.89
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
6.77
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali Midfielder
6.67
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino Attacker
6.83
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
6.86
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Central Midfield
7.1
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Central Midfield
6.93
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Left Back
6.99
25
Alessandro Dellavalle
Alessandro Dellavalle Right Back
6.9
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Centre Back
6.85
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe Central Midfield
6.63
Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
7.12
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Centre Forward
6.88
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis Attacker
7.16
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
6.75
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Central Midfield
6.72
2
Giorgio Cittadini
Giorgio Cittadini Left Back
6.9
8
Ilias Koutsoupias
Ilias Koutsoupias Central Midfield
6.94
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Central Midfield
7.6
20
Jérémy Oyono
Jérémy Oyono Right Back
6.64
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi Right Back
7.07
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia Left Back
6.92

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Frosinone holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Frosinone a 9.5-point edge. External projection is Modena 40.6%, draw 27.4%, and Frosinone 32.1%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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