Mirandés vs Real Valladolid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Anduva Sun, 22 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga 2
Mirandés MIR
2 Winner 1
Real Valladolid REV
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 3:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Unax del Cura - 45'
Carlos Fernández - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Juanmi Latasa - 23'

CONTEXT

The match between Mirandés and Real Valladolid has finished, with Mirandés claiming a 1-0 full-time victory. This result stands in direct contrast to pre-match expectations, meaning the final outcome was not aligned with the betting market. Real Valladolid entered the fixture as the favorites with a 40.7% implied win probability, compared to a 30.2% chance

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mirandés showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Mirandés A. Muneta Beldarrain
A. Muneta Beldarrain
VS
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
0.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: 64 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Huesca Rank: 60 W
Las Palmas Rank: 70 D
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Málaga Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: 66 W
Málaga Rank: 66 D
Huesca Rank: 60 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 D
Granada Rank: 67 L
Castellón Rank: 66 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mirandés
30.22%
Draw
29.05%
Away Real Valladolid
40.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.55
56.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
Power Score
58.55
56.36
League Position
22
18
Global Rank
530
464

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mirandés — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mirandés Real Valladolid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mirandés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mirandés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.89
33.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.09
31.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mirandés -0.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Valladolid +0.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mirandés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mirandés Real Valladolid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mirandés Real Valladolid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mirandés MIR Home
11 matches
Real Valladolid REV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
1
Goals
12
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
12
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Palomares Pulpillo
Spain
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
T. Tamarit Tamarit
27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
J. Gutiérrez Martínez
Spain
22 (C) J. Gutiérrez Martínez
J. Cabello Trujillo
Spain
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
F. Medrano Gastañaga
Spain
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
S. Clua Oya
Spain
16 S. Clua Oya
R. Bauzà Sureda
Spain
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
D. Sia
Substitution
Italy
20 D. Sia
F. Hernandez Coarasa
Substitution
Spain
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
S. El Jebari El Hannouni
Substitution
Morocco
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
U. del Cura Urra
Substitution
Spain
48 U. del Cura Urra
Á. Aceves Catalina
Spain
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
I. Garriel Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
27 I. Garriel Muñoz
R. Martinez Gil
Spain
5 R. Martinez Gil
P. Tomeo Félez
Spain
15 P. Tomeo Félez
I. Alejo Peralta
Substitution
Spain
14 I. Alejo Peralta
S. Canós Tenes
Substitution
Spain
7 S. Canós Tenes
J. Ponceau
Substitution
France
21 J. Ponceau
S. Jurić
Croatia
24 (C) S. Jurić
I. San José Cantalejo
Spain
20 I. San José Cantalejo
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
Spain
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
M. de Sousa Mendonça
Substitution
Brazil
10 M. de Sousa Mendonça

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Anduva
Capacity
5759
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ricardo Landrove Lago
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Fernando Estela Bravo
Rubén Ruipérez Marín

Statistics

Possession
MIR
52%
REV
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 5
38 Dangerous attacks 31
53 Possession 47
8 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 8
2 Assists 1
17 Throwins 18
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
11 Dribble Attempts 13
4 Successful Dribbles 7
52 Ball Safe 60
0 Injuries 1
10 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
98 Attacks 93

Possession

52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
343 Passes 307
76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
261 Successful Passes 234
50 Long Passes 50
26 Successful Long Passes 16
10 Key Passes 9

Defensive

4 Saves 5
11 Tackles 13
9 Interceptions 11

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 6
21 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

13
Juanpa Palomares
Juanpa Palomares Goalkeeper
7.51
3
Fernando Medrano
Fernando Medrano Defender
6.83
15
Jorge Cabello
Jorge Cabello Defender
6.88
22
Juan Gutiérrez
Juan Gutiérrez (C) Defender
6.95
27
Toni Tamarit
Toni Tamarit Defender
7.45
16
Selvi Clua
Selvi Clua Midfielder
6.52
18
Rafel Bauzà
Rafel Bauzà Midfielder
7.49
20
Diego Sia
Diego Sia Midfielder
6.41
29
Ali Houary
Ali Houary
Attacker68'
6.79
28
Javi Hernández
Javi Hernández Midfielder
7.39
4
Martín Pascual
Martín Pascual
Defender88'
30
Salim El Jebari
Salim El Jebari Midfielder
6.74
17
Pablo Pérez
Pablo Pérez
Defender67'
6.45
48
Unax del Cura
Unax del Cura Attacker
6.97
10
Carlos Fernández
Carlos Fernández
Attacker49'
7.14
Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
7.18
5
Ramón Martínez
Ramón Martínez Defender
6.02
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo Defender
6.61
2
Clément Michelin
Clément Michelin
Defender85'
6.4
15
Pablo Tomeo
Pablo Tomeo Defender
6.3
27
Iván Garriel
Iván Garriel Defender
6.62
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc
Defender67'
6.78
7
Sergi Canós
Sergi Canós Midfielder
6.42
25
Vegard Erlien
Vegard Erlien
Attacker87'
20
Chuki
Chuki Midfielder
7.23
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
6.63
8
Víctor Meseguer
Víctor Meseguer
Midfielder85'
6.61
24
Stanko Juric
Stanko Juric (C) Midfielder
6.92
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
7.48
10
Marcos André
Marcos André Attacker
6.36
22
Peter Federico
Peter Federico
Attacker46'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Peter Federico
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Martín Pascual → Javi Hernández
9th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Vegard Erlien → Sergi Canós
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Víctor Meseguer → Julien Ponceau
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Clément Michelin → Iván Alejo
7th Substitution
Event
Carlos Fernández
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
79'
Event
Ramón Martínez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Javi Hernández
Penalty disallowed
78'
Event
Ali Houary → Diego Sia
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Pablo Pérez → Salim El Jebari
4th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Carlos Clerc → Iván Garriel
3rd Substitution
Event
Fernando Medrano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
Event
Carlos Fernández → Unax del Cura
2nd Substitution
49'
46'
Event
Peter Federico → Marcos André
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Unax del Cura
Header / 2nd Goal
45'
23'
Event
Juanmi Latasa
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Mirandés exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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