Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Tomorrow - 11:30 AM
Championship
Millwall MLW
Versus
Queens Park Rangers QPR
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 11:30 AM
Round 43 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Millwall host Queens Park Rangers in Championship (Regular Season) at The Den. Domestically, Millwall sit 3th in the table while Queens Park Rangers are 11th. Power ranking favours Millwall by 5.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Millwall lead structurally with a 5.7-point power advantage and third-place standing over QPR's 11th.
  • Form: Queens Park Rangers hold a slight form edge at 24.39 compared to Millwall's 23.28.
  • Squad: Millwall's squad power score of 30 surpasses QPR's 24.31.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable.
  • Market: Millwall 55.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0%) | Queens Park Rangers 19.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.3
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: D
Preston North End Rank: D
Watford Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: W
Leicester City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
55.89%
Draw
24.79%
Away Queens Park Rangers
19.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
24.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Queens Park Rangers
Power Score
30
24.31
League Position
3
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Queens Park Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Queens Park Rangers

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
23 matches
Queens Park Rangers QPR Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
9
Draws
9
7
Losses
7
Goals
28
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
28
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-17T00:05:30+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Patterson
13 A. Patterson
T. Crama
4 T. Crama
C. Taylor
6 C. Taylor
J. Cooper
5 J. Cooper
Z. Norton Sturge
3 Z. Norton Sturge
R. Leonard
18 R. Leonard
C. De Norre
24 C. De Norre
F. Azeez
11 F. Azeez
C. Neghli
10 C. Neghli
T. Ballo
7 T. Ballo
J. Coburn
19 J. Coburn
J. Walsh
13 J. Walsh
R. Norrington-Davies
18 R. Norrington-Davies
R. Edwards
37 R. Edwards
J. Clarke-Salter
6 J. Clarke-Salter
A. Mbengue
27 A. Mbengue
P. Smyth
11 P. Smyth
J. Varane
40 J. Varane
K. Morgan
21 K. Morgan
H. Vale
20 H. Vale
R. Kone
22 R. Kone
R. Kolli
26 R. Kolli

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Den
Capacity
20146
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tom Nield
George Byrne
Graham Kane
J. Oldham

Expected Lineup

Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.67
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Centre Forward
6.86
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Left Back
7.04
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Right Back
7.23
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Left Wing
6.64
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Left Back
6.63
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Right Back
7.08
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Right Wing
7.27
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Defensive Midfield
6.85
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Defensive Midfield
6.81
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Attacking Midfield
6.79
Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

13
Joe Walsh
Joe Walsh Goalkeeper
6.65
11
Paul Patrick Smyth
Paul Patrick Smyth Midfielder
6.79
20
Harvey Vale
Harvey Vale Midfielder
6.9
22
Richard Kone
Richard Kone Attacker
6.82
26
Rayan Kolli
Rayan Kolli Attacker
6.73
27
Amadou Salif Mbengue
Amadou Salif Mbengue Right Back
6.66
37
Ronnie Edwards
Ronnie Edwards Left Back
6.6
40
Jonathan Varane
Jonathan Varane Central Midfield
6.79
6
Jake Clarke-Salter
Jake Clarke-Salter Right Back
6.6
21
Kieran Morgan
Kieran Morgan Central Midfield
6.55
18
Rhys Norrington-Davies
Rhys Norrington-Davies Left Back
5.21

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Millwall holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Millwall a 5.7-point edge. External projection is Millwall 55.9%, draw 24.8%, and Queens Park Rangers 19.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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