Millwall vs Norwich City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Mon, 6 Apr - 12:00 PM
Championship
Millwall MLW
1 Winner 2
Norwich City NOR
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 41 Regular Season
Mihailo Ivanović - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
P. Mattsson - 62'
Oscar Schwartau - 76'

CONTEXT

The match between Millwall and Norwich City has finished, with Norwich City securing a 2-1 away victory. The game was tightly contested early on, as the two sides went into the halftime break deadlocked at 0-0 before the visitors found their winning edge in the second half. Norwich City's triumph represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Millwall entered the contest as the market favorites with a 43.6% probability of winning, compared to Norwich City's 28.2% chance. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market, as the away side defied the odds to claim the victory. On the pitch, possession was relatively balanced, though Norwich City held a slight advantage with 53% of the ball compared to Millwall's 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, meaning it cannot be definitively stated whether the outcome aligned with the underlying shot quality. However, the teams' attacking efficiency shift was evaluated to be entirely in line with general expectations. Finally, the match was played without any major disciplinary disruptions or game-altering suspensions, as neither team received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Norwich City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Dwyer
M. Dwyer
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
L. Swabey
L. Swabey
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
S. Allison
S. Allison
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
C. Brown
C. Brown
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
1.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 65 L
Derby County Rank: 71 W
Hull City Rank: 71 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portsmouth Rank: 65 D
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Southampton Rank: 73 L
Preston North End Rank: 65 W
Sheffield United Rank: 70 W
Leicester City Rank: 67 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
43.61%
Draw
28.2%
Away Norwich City
28.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.49
72.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Norwich City
Power Score
74.49
72.34
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
112
146

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Norwich City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.81
26.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.70
26.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Millwall +0.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Norwich City -0.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Norwich City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Millwall Norwich City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Millwall Norwich City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Norwich City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Millwall
vs
Norwich City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Millwall Norwich City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Millwall 0.19
Norwich City 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Millwall Norwich City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Millwall 0.05
Norwich City 0.02
Millwall
Norwich City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
19 matches
Norwich City NOR Away
Match Record
5
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
5
Goals
25
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
25
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:01:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
C. Taylor
England
6 C. Taylor
J. Cooper
England
5 J. Cooper
Z. Norton Sturge
Substitution
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
B. Bannan
Substitution
Scotland
67 B. Bannan
C. De Norre
Substitution
Belgium
24 C. De Norre
F. Azeez
England
11 F. Azeez
L. Cundle
Substitution
England
25 L. Cundle
C. Neghli
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
J. Coburn
England
19 J. Coburn
V. Kovačević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 V. Kovačević
K. Fisher
Substitution
England
35 K. Fisher
J. Cordoba Chambers
Panama
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
H. Darling
England
6 H. Darling
J. Stacey
England
3 J. Stacey
P. Mattsson
Denmark
7 P. Mattsson
S. Field
England
26 S. Field
A. Ahmed
Canada
21 A. Ahmed
A. Slimane
Substitution
Tunisia
20 A. Slimane
K. McLean
Scotland
23 K. McLean
M. Kvistgaarden
Substitution
Denmark
30 M. Kvistgaarden

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 41 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Den
Capacity
20146
Attendance
18855
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Mark Dwyer
Lee Swabey
Samuel Allison
Connor Brown

Statistics

Possession
MLW
49%
NOR
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
2 Shots 5
52 Dangerous attacks 43
47 Possession 53
2 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Attempts 7
3 Successful Dribbles 3
3 Dribble Attempts 3
13 Goal Kicks 5
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
27 Successful Headers 22
33 Throwins 22
73 Ball Safe 78
4 Substitutions 3
1 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

90 Attacks 82

Possession

319 Passes 375
8 Key Passes 10
65 Successful Passes Percentage 72
207 Successful Passes 272
24 Long Passes 21

Defensive

2 Saves 1
6 Interceptions 8
48 Duels Won 40
12 Tackles 4

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

12 Fouls 7
4 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Allison

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
23
Joe Bryan
Joe Bryan
Defender87'
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Defender
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
22
Tom Watson
Tom Watson
Attacker80'
25
Luke Cundle
Luke Cundle Midfielder
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović
Attacker46'
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan Midfielder
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Midfielder86'
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Attacker
Referee : Samuel Allison

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey Defender
6
Harry Darling
Harry Darling Defender
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Defender
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher Defender
14
Ben Chrisene
Ben Chrisene
Defender67'
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson Midfielder
20
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Midfielder
29
Oscar Schwartau
Oscar Schwartau
Attacker68'
21
Ali Ahmed
Ali Ahmed Midfielder
23
Kenny McLean
Kenny McLean Midfielder
26
Sam Field
Sam Field Midfielder
30
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Mathias Kvistgaarden Attacker
37
Mohamed Touré
Mohamed Touré
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joe Bryan
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Oscar Schwartau
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Joe Bryan → Zak Sturge
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Derek Mazou-Sacko → Barry Bannan
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Tom Watson → Casper De Norre
5th Substitution
80'
76'
Event
Oscar Schwartau
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
Event
Oscar Schwartau → Anis Slimane
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Ben Chrisene → Kellen Fisher
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
P. Mattsson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Mihailo Ivanović
Header / 1st Goal
56'
Event
Mihailo Ivanović → Luke Cundle
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Mohamed Touré → Mathias Kvistgaarden
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
José Córdoba
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Kenny McLean from Norwich City missed a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a fast break.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Offside called against Norwich City. Ali Ahmed is in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Millwall 1, Norwich City 2.
89
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Joe Bryan from Millwall.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Bryan from Millwall receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oscar Schwartau of Norwich City receives a yellow card.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by José Córdoba of Norwich City.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Joe Bryan replaces Zak Sturge.
87
Update Update
Joe Bryan of Millwall won a free kick in defense.
87
Corner Corner
Harry Darling of Norwich City attempts an attack with a header from the center of the box, but Anthony Patterson of Millwall saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Sam Field's cross.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Derek Mazou-Sacko replaces Barry Bannan.
86
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after Femi Azeez concedes.
84
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after Jake Cooper concedes.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tom Watson's shot for Millwall from outside the box is blocked. Barry Bannan provided the assist.
81
Update Update
Sam Field from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Foul by Tom Watson of Millwall.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Zak Sturge of Millwall.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Tom Watson replaces Casper De Norre.
80
Update Update
Mohamed Touré of Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
79
Attempt Attempt
Camiel Neghli's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Caleb Taylor.
78
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Harry Darling concedes.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norwich City leads 2-1 with Oscar Schwartau scoring from the center of the box with a right-footed shot to the center of the goal, assisted by Mohamed Touré after a fast break.
74
Attempt Attempt
Femi Azeez of Millwall missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from Camiel Neghli's cross.
73
Update Update
Handball by Casper De Norre of Millwall.
72
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sam Field from Norwich City.
71
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Ben Chrisene of Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
69
Update Update
Barry Bannan from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Oscar Schwartau replaces Anis Ben Slimane.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Ben Chrisene replaces Kellen Fisher due to injury.
66
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kellen Fisher of Norwich City.
63
Update Update
Femi Azeez is flagged for offside for Millwall.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pelle Mattsson scores for Norwich City with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the top right corner. The match is now 1-1, with an assist from Mohamed Touré.
60
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul for Millwall.
60
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Josh Coburn of Millwall won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Stacey of Norwich City.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Millwall leads 1-0 against Norwich City. Mihailo Ivanovic scores for Millwall with a header from a few meters to the center of the goal, assisted by Casper De Norre.
51
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic of Millwall missed a header from the center of the box, with the assist coming from Femi Azeez's cross.
51
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Camiel Neghli of Millwall takes a left-footed shot from a difficult position on the left, but it's saved in the top left corner by Vladan Kovacevic of Norwich City. The assist comes from Zak Sturge.
50
Update Update
Harry Darling from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Coburn for Millwall.
49
Update Update
Mihailo Ivanovic of Millwall is flagged for offside.
48
Update Update
Offside called against Millwall. Josh Coburn is offside.
47
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Crama of Millwall had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Caleb Taylor.
47
Update Update
Jack Stacey of Norwich City commits a handball.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Jake Cooper of Millwall.
45
Update Update
Zak Sturge from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by José Córdoba of Norwich City.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Millwall and Norwich City tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Mohamed Touré replaces Mathias Kvistgaarden.
42
Update Update
Kenny McLean of Norwich City won a free kick on the right wing.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Zak Sturge of Millwall.
41
Update Update
Harry Darling from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
41
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Sam Field concedes.
41
Corner Corner
Caleb Taylor from Millwall missed a chance with a header from the center of the box following a corner.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Coburn for Millwall.
39
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Crama of Millwall had a close header from a few meters out, but he missed the chance. The assist was provided by Camiel Neghli.
38
Corner Corner
Kenny McLean of Norwich City attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but Anthony Patterson of Millwall saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Ali Ahmed.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jack Stacey of Norwich City had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from a difficult position on the right. The shot was close but went to the left. Anis Ben Slimane provided the assist.
36
Attempt Attempt
Femi Azeez from Millwall misses a left-footed shot from outside the box.
34
Update Update
Zak Sturge from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden fouled a player from Norwich City.
31
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Mathias Kvistgaarden from Norwich City has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Anthony Patterson from Millwall. The assist comes from Anis Ben Slimane.
31
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after Jake Cooper concedes.
28
Update Update
Offside called against Norwich City. Mathias Kvistgaarden is offside.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
José Córdoba from Norwich City receives a yellow card.
25
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
24
Attempt Attempt
Anis Ben Slimane's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Coburn of Millwall.
24
Update Update
Fouled by José Córdoba of Norwich City.
24
Update Update
José Córdoba from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Barry Bannan of Millwall.
20
Update Update
Femi Azeez of Millwall is flagged for offside.
20
Attempt Attempt
Ali Ahmed's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Mathias Kvistgaarden.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Zak Sturge concedes.
12
Update Update
Offside called against Norwich City. Jack Stacey is offside.
10
Attempt Attempt
Kenny McLean's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Ali Ahmed.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Luke Cundle of Millwall.
4
Update Update
Harry Darling from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after a concession by Casper De Norre.
2
Attempt Attempt
Anis Ben Slimane's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Mathias Kvistgaarden.
2
Attempt Attempt
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City missed a header from the center of the box.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Norwich City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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