Millwall vs Derby County Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Tue, 10 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Millwall MLW
1 Winner 0
Derby County DRB
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 7:45 PM
Josh Coburn - 43'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Millwall and Derby County has finished, with Millwall securing a 1-0 full-time victory. The home side established their lead early, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, and successfully maintained it through the final whistle. Possession was perfectly balanced, with both teams seeing exactly 50 percent of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the scoreline aligned with the quality of chances created. Pre-match expectations favored the hosts, as the market gave Millwall a 47.5 percent chance of winning, compared to a 27.5 percent probability for a draw and 25.1 percent for a Derby County upset. The final outcome aligned with these pre-match market projections. Despite this alignment, the result represented a significant deviation level of 52.5 percent leaning toward Millwall. Overall efficiency shifts remained in line with expectations, reflecting Millwall's operational edge on the day. The match was played without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. Ultimately, Millwall navigated the evenly possessed game cleanly, using their first-half breakthrough to claim all three points as the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Millwall showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Donohue
M. Donohue
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
R. Madley
R. Madley
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
J. Graham
J. Graham
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
I. Cooper
I. Cooper
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Watford Rank: W
Swansea City Rank: W
Southampton Rank: D
Bristol City Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Leicester City Rank: L
Birmingham City Rank: D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 10 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
47.5%
Draw
27.45%
Away Derby County
25.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.63
22.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Derby County
Power Score
26.63
22.32
League Position
3
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Derby County

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.30
32.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.40
35.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Millwall +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Derby County -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Derby County
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Millwall Derby County
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Millwall Derby County
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Derby County
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
7 matches
Derby County DRB Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
3
Goals
7
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
7
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:03:35+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
The Den
Capacity
20146
Attendance
15939
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matt Donohue
Robert Madley
J. Graham
Ian Cooper

Statistics

Possession
MLW
49%
DRB
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
15 Shots 14
53 Dangerous attacks 44
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Injuries 3
10 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
83 Ball Safe 88
24 Successful Headers 29
26 Throwins 18
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
2 Successful Dribbles 4
6 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Assists 0
8 Goal Kicks 12

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
103 Attacks 100

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes 34
71 Long Passes 81
241 Successful Passes 257
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
11 Key Passes 10
70 Successful Passes Percentage 72
345 Passes 355

Defensive

55 Duels Won 58
3 Interceptions 10
15 Tackles 17
0 Saves 3

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 14
10 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 13

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Derek Mazou-Sacko → Josh Coburn
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Will Smallbone → Billy Mitchell
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Tom Watson → Femi Azeez
9th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Richard O'Donnell → Josh Vickers
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Lewis Travis
6th Substitution
Event
Macaulay Langstaff → Mihailo Ivanovic
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Luke Cundle → Barry Bannan
4th Substitution
72'
61'
Event
Carlton Morris
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Jaydon Banel → Ben Brereton Díaz
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Carlton Morris → Rhian Brewster
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Dion Sanderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Bobby Clark
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Bobby Clark → David Ozoh
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Josh Coburn
Header / 1st Goal
43'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Derry John Murkin.
90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Carlton Morris has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Carlton Morris has been caught in an offside position.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Derek Mazou-Sacko comes on to replace Josh Coburn.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Oscar Fraulo from Derby County took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Millwall defeating Derby County 1-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Carlton Morris from Derby County attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Patrick Agyemang, who also used his head to set it up.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Will Smallbone is coming on to replace Billy Mitchell.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Tom Watson comes on to replace Femi Azeez.
88
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Dan McNamara from Millwall took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Luke Cundle.
87
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Josh Vickers from Derby County.
86
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Richard O'Donnell replaces Josh Vickers due to injury.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Oscar Fraulo replaces Lewis Travis.
83
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Dan McNamara from Millwall was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Sam Szmodics from Derby County attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
80
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Derry John Murkin from Derby County.
77
Update Update
Carlton Morris from Derby County committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Billy Mitchell from Millwall earned a free kick on the right flank.
76
Update Update
Jake Cooper from Millwall was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
Jake Cooper from Millwall was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Macaulay Langstaff comes on to replace Mihailo Ivanovic.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Luke Cundle comes on to replace Barry Bannan.
71
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jaydon Banel from Derby County attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
69
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Patrick Agyemang from Derby County took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Sam Szmodics.
68
Update Update
Barry Bannan from Millwall was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
68
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Another offensive push! Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Josh Vickers, the goalkeeper for Derby County, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Camiel Neghli, who delivered a cross.
64
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Femi Azeez of Millwall attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Mihailo Ivanovic, who set him up with a header.
62
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County was awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlton Morris of Derby County has been shown a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Carlton Morris committed a foul against a player from Derby County.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Jaydon Banel replaces Ben Brereton.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Carlton Morris replaces Rhian Brewster.
59
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Lewis Travis from Derby County took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Bobby Clark.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dion Sanderson from Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
58
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall earned a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Dion Sanderson commits a foul for Derby County.
56
Attempt Attempt
Azeez attempts a shot from outside the penalty area with his left foot, but it gets deflected.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mihailo Ivanovic of Millwall headed the ball from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Billy Mitchell, who delivered a cross.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bobby Clark from Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
54
Update Update
Dion Sanderson committed a foul against a player from Derby County.
54
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
53
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
53
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Update Update
Zak Sturge from Millwall committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Dion Sanderson from Derby County has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Matt Clarke allowed the ball to go out.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Billy Mitchell from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Camiel Neghli.
49
Update Update
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Millwall leading Derby County 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Josh Coburn from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Josh Vickers of Derby County makes a crucial save, denying the attempt in the left corner. The assist came from Billy Mitchell.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Millwall 1, Derby County 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Bobby Clark replaces David Ozoh.
45
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after a deflection off Josh Vickers.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall committed a foul.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Millwall takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Derby County. Josh Coburn heads the ball into the bottom right corner from just a few meters out, thanks to an assist from Tristan Crama.
42
Update Update
Rhian Brewster committed a foul against Derby County.
42
Update Update
Dan McNamara from Millwall earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
40
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Josh Coburn from Millwall attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The cross was delivered by Femi Azeez.
38
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Joe Ward from Derby County.
37
Update Update
Josh Coburn committed a foul for Millwall.
37
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Barry Bannan from Millwall attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
35
Update Update
Dion Sanderson committed a foul for Derby County.
35
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall earned a free kick in an offensive position.
33
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Joe Ward from Derby County took a right-footed shot from over 35 yards out, but it went wide. The assist came from Ben Brereton following a corner kick.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sam Szmodics from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County attempts a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lewis Travis.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Tristan Crama allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Patrick Agyemang has been caught offside.
27
Update Update
Josh Vickers from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Update Update
Josh Coburn committed a foul against Millwall.
27
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Millwall, following a save made by Josh Vickers.
26
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Zak Sturge from Millwall heads the ball from the center of the box, but Josh Vickers of Derby County makes a fantastic save, reaching up to deny it in the top left corner. The assist comes from Femi Azeez, who delivered a precise cross.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall, following a foul by Dion Sanderson.
24
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Tristan Crama of Millwall attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box but failed to score following a corner kick.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Matt Clarke allowed the ball to go out.
24
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Barry Bannan, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
22
Update Update
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
22
Update Update
Lewis Travis committed a foul against a player from Derby County.
21
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Dan McNamara from Millwall earned a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
18
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Patrick Agyemang from Derby County.
15
Update Update
A header attempt from Patrick Agyemang of Derby County is denied as it gets blocked. The chance was set up by a cross from Joe Ward.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Zak Sturge allowed the ball to go out.
14
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Ben Brereton from Derby County heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Dion Sanderson.
14
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ben Brereton from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Patrick Agyemang.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Matt Clarke allowed the ball to go out.
11
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall earned a free kick in an offensive position.
5
Attempt Attempt
Azeez's attempt thwarted. Femi Azeez of Millwall takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Barry Bannan.
1
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Patrick Agyemang is caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Millwall exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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