Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Riverside Stadium Wed, 11 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Middlesbrough MID
0 Winner 1
Charlton Athletic CHA
Full Time Wed, 11 Mar 7:45 PM
|
Goal
Conor Coady - 59'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Charlton Athletic securing a surprising 1-0 away victory over Middlesbrough. Following a scoreless first half, the visitors broke the deadlock to claim the win. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Charlton Athletic pulled off a massive upset. Heading into the fixture, Middlesbrough were the clear favorites with a 73.3% implied win probability, while a draw was priced at 17% and a Charlton victory at just 9.7%. Middlesbrough completely controlled the ball, finishing with a staggering 78% possession compared to Charlton's 22%. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this match, it cannot be determined if the final outcome was consistent with the overall quality of chances created by either side. The flow of the game was smooth and unhindered by disciplinary issues, as no red cards were issued to either team. Ultimately, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market. Charlton's unexpected triumph drove a massive 90.3% statistical deviation. However, despite the dramatic upset on the scoreboard, the underlying efficiency shift remained completely in line with the data model's expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Charlton Athletic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Herczeg
A. Herczeg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Dean Whitestone
Dean Whitestone
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
C. Gough
C. Gough
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
C. Fitch
C. Fitch
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
VS
Charlton Athletic N. Jones
N. Jones
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stoke City Rank: 68 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 W
Southampton Rank: 72 W
Derby County Rank: 71 L
Hull City Rank: 72 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 73 L
Derby County Rank: 71 L
Sheffield United Rank: 72 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 66 D
Coventry City Rank: 74 D
Portsmouth Rank: 66 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Middlesbrough
73.3%
Draw
16.95%
Away Charlton Athletic
9.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.44
61.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Middlesbrough
Charlton Athletic
Power Score
73.44
61.67
League Position
2
17
Global Rank
121
244

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Charlton Athletic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Middlesbrough Charlton Athletic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Middlesbrough

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Charlton Athletic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Middlesbrough ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Charlton Athletic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.83
24.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.55
50.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Middlesbrough +2.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Charlton Athletic -2.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Middlesbrough
Charlton Athletic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Middlesbrough ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Charlton Athletic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Middlesbrough Charlton Athletic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Middlesbrough Charlton Athletic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Middlesbrough
Charlton Athletic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Middlesbrough MID Home
1 matches
Charlton Athletic CHA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-12T00:03:49+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 11, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Riverside Stadium
Capacity
34988
Attendance
24668
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Herczeg
Dean Whitestone
C. Gough
Carl Fitch

Statistics

Possession
MID
72%
CHA
28%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 1
113 Dangerous attacks 8
78 Possession 22
11 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 3
11 Successful Headers 15
1 Goal Kicks 19
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
15 Dribble Attempts 11
6 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
70 Ball Safe 77
0 Injuries 2
16 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

150 Attacks 41
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

91 Successful Passes Percentage 66
754 Passes 226
32 Long Passes 56
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
683 Successful Passes 150
20 Successful Long Passes 17
23 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Interceptions 9
13 Tackles 15
1 Saves 7
42 Duels Won 44

Build-up

46 Total Crosses 3
15 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sontje Hansen → Matt Targett
8th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Lloyd Jones → Greg Docherty
9th Substitution
Event
Kaly Sène → Riley McGree
7th Substitution
74'
65'
Event
Amari'i Bell → Macaulay Gillesphey
6th Substitution
59'
Event
Conor Coady
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Tyreece Campbell → Miles Leaburn
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Lyndon Dykes → Charlie Kelman
5th Substitution
Event
Leo Castledine → David Strelec
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Jeremy Sarmiento → Morgan Whittaker
3rd Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Kayne Ramsay → Keenan Gough
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Macaulay Gillesphey
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Luke Chambers
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Kayne Ramsay allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Amari'i Bell allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Luke Chambers committed a foul against Charlton Athletic.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Will Mannion, the goalkeeper for Charlton Athletic, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Kayne Ramsay allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Adilson Malanda from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from the heart of the box. However, Will Mannion, the goalkeeper for Charlton Athletic, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Hayden Hackney, who delivered a cross to set up the opportunity.
90
Update Update
Jeremy Sarmiento from Middlesbrough earned a free kick on the right flank.
90
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Leo Castledine of Middlesbrough headed the ball from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Luke Ayling, who delivered a well-placed cross.
90
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes committed a foul against a player from Charlton Athletic.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Middlesbrough 0, Charlton Athletic 1.
90
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Conor Coady from Charlton Athletic.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Lloyd Jones comes on to replace Greg Docherty.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Sontje Hansen comes on to replace Matt Targett.
89
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Middlesbrough. Hayden Hackney takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Will Mannion from Charlton Athletic makes a save, diving to his left.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Amari'i Bell gave away the ball.
88
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough attempted a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Greg Docherty's defensive play.
84
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Leo Castledine from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Will Mannion of Charlton Athletic makes a great save, denying the attempt in the upper center of the goal.
80
Update Update
Conor Coventry from Charlton Athletic was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
79
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Kaly Sène from Middlesbrough attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Hayden Hackney, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
78
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Update Update
Greg Docherty from Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
78
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough has been awarded a corner kick after Conor Coventry allowed the ball to go out.
77
Update Update
Jeremy Sarmiento from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Will Mannion from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Leo Castledine from Middlesbrough attempted a header from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The assist came from Hayden Hackney, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Greg Docherty allowed the ball to go out.
76
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
75
Update Update
Sonny Carey from Charlton Athletic committed a handball.
75
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner, but it sailed high and wide to the left.
74
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough has been awarded a corner kick after Kayne Ramsay allowed the ball to go out of play.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Kaly Sène comes on to replace Riley McGree.
73
Update Update
Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes of Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
69
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Leo Castledine from Middlesbrough attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The setup came from Aidan Morris, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Conor Coventry allowed it.
68
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Aidan Morris.
66
Update Update
Leo Castledine from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Kayne Ramsay from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Amari'i Bell comes on to replace Macaulay Gillesphey.
65
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Hayden Hackney of Middlesbrough attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Jeremy Sarmiento following a corner kick.
64
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Middlesbrough after Tyreece Campbell allowed the ball to go out.
63
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Tyreece Campbell has been caught offside.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Macaulay Gillesphey allowed the ball to go out.
61
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Riley McGree.
61
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Tyreece Campbell has been caught in an offside position.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Lyndon Dykes replaces Charlie Kelman.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Charlton Athletic takes the lead against Middlesbrough with a score of 1-0. Conor Coady found the back of the net, firing a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner of the goal. The assist came from Harry Clarke.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Tyreece Campbell comes on to replace Miles Leaburn.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Leo Castledine comes on to replace David Strelec.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Jeremy Sarmiento comes on to replace Morgan Whittaker.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Kayne Ramsay replaces Keenan Gough.
57
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Charlie Kelman from Charlton Athletic attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Harry Clarke.
51
Update Update
Macaulay Gillesphey from Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in an offensive position.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Harry Clarke allowed the ball to go out.
48
Update Update
Conor Coventry committed a foul against a player from Charlton Athletic.
48
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Miles Leaburn of Charlton Athletic.
46
Update Update
Conor Coventry committed a foul on a player from Charlton Athletic.
46
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
Luke Ayling from Middlesbrough was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Matt Targett from Middlesbrough fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Macaulay Gillesphey of Charlton Athletic has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Middlesbrough and Charlton Athletic.
45
Update Update
Harry Clarke from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Middlesbrough 0, Charlton Athletic 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Middlesbrough 0, Charlton Athletic 0.
44
Update Update
Macaulay Gillesphey of Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
44
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Middlesbrough after Will Mannion allowed the ball out of play.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after a defensive play by Will Mannion.
41
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Morgan Whittaker from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Tommy Conway.
39
Update Update
Luke Chambers committed a foul against Charlton Athletic.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luke Chambers of Charlton Athletic has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
39
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Riley McGree of Middlesbrough attempted a header from the middle of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Callum Brittain.
38
Update Update
Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough has earned a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
36
Update Update
Match has been paused due to an injury to Will Mannion from Charlton Athletic.
32
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Riley McGree.
32
Update Update
Sonny Carey from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Riley McGree from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Adilson Malanda from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
30
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Middlesbrough. Aidan Morris takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Will Mannion of Charlton Athletic makes a great save, stopping it in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Riley McGree.
27
Update Update
Charlie Kelman from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Charlton Athletic, following a save by Sol Brynn.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Charlton Athletic after Sol Brynn allowed the ball to go out of play.
24
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Miles Leaburn from Charlton Athletic attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The chance was set up by Sonny Carey, who delivered a cross following a corner.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Charlton Athletic after a play that resulted in a foul by Adilson Malanda.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Charlie Kelman from Charlton Athletic fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Sonny Carey.
22
Update Update
Miles Leaburn from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Update Update
Luke Ayling committed a foul against a Middlesbrough player.
18
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Middlesbrough. Callum Brittain takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Will Mannion, the Charlton Athletic goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Riley McGree.
16
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matt Targett from Middlesbrough took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Hayden Hackney.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. David Strelec from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Adilson Malanda.
12
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Matt Targett from Middlesbrough attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from David Strelec.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Miles Leaburn of Charlton Athletic.
11
Update Update
Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Sonny Carey from Charlton Athletic has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
6
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. David Strelec from Middlesbrough took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the left. The assist came from Callum Brittain.
3
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Morgan Whittaker from Middlesbrough attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left but failed to find the target. The assist came from Tommy Conway.
3
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Charlton Athletic exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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