Mantova vs Virtus Entella Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Mantova MAN
1 Winner 0
Virtus Entella ENT
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Tommaso Marras - 84'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Mantova securing a narrow 1-0 victory over Virtus Entella. After a tightly contested first half that ended in a scoreless draw, Mantova eventually found the breakthrough in the second half to claim the win on their home turf. The outcome aligned directly with the pre-match market, as Mantova entered the contest as the stronger side. Pre-match betting probabilities gave the home team a 40.1% chance of winning, compared to a 29.7% chance of a draw and a 30.3% chance for a Virtus Entella victory. This result generated a significant deviation level of 59.9% favoring Mantova, ultimately justifying their status as the pre-game favorites. Mantova controlled the tempo of the game, holding 55% of the overall possession while Virtus Entella managed 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was perfectly consistent with underlying xG metrics. However, the teams' offensive efficiency shift was distinctly in line with regular expectations. Finally, the match was played cleanly without any red cards shown to either side, ensuring that disciplinary events and numerical disadvantages did not impact the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Emmanuele
M. Emmanuele
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Zezza
A. Zezza
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Dionisi
F. Dionisi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Zanotti
A. Zanotti
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 58 L
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 W
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Carrarese Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 49 W
Pescara Rank: 46 L
Avellino Rank: 50 L
Südtirol Rank: 55 W
Modena Rank: 58 W
Monza Rank: 65 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
40.07%
Draw
29.67%
Away Virtus Entella
30.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.25
46.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Virtus Entella
Power Score
52.25
46.99
League Position
12
16
Global Rank
686
827

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Virtus Entella

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.09
26.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.11
26.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mantova 0.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Virtus Entella +0.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Virtus Entella
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mantova Virtus Entella
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mantova Virtus Entella
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Virtus Entella
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mantova
vs
Virtus Entella
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mantova Virtus Entella
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mantova 0.26
Virtus Entella 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mantova Virtus Entella
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mantova 0.00
Virtus Entella 0.02
Mantova
Virtus Entella
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
1 matches
Virtus Entella ENT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
T. Maggioni
Italy
96 T. Maggioni
N. Radaelli
Italy
17 N. Radaelli
S. Trimboli
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
D. Wieser
Substitution
Italy
10 D. Wieser
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Bragantini
Substitution
Italy
30 D. Bragantini
N. Buso
Substitution
Italy
77 N. Buso
L. Mancuso
Substitution
Italy
9 L. Mancuso
F. Del Frate
Italy
22 F. Del Frate
I. Marconi
Substitution
Italy
15 I. Marconi
A. Tiritiello
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
L. Parodi
Italy
23 L. Parodi
S. Di Mario
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
N. Karic
Substitution
Sweden
8 N. Karic
N. Squizzato
Italy
5 N. Squizzato
A. Franzoni
Italy
24 A. Franzoni
D. Bariti
Substitution
Italy
7 D. Bariti
M. Tirelli
Substitution
Italy
17 M. Tirelli
L. Cuppone
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Cuppone

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity
7487
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Marco Emmanuele
Andrea Zezza
Federico Dionisi
Andrea Zanotti

Statistics

Possession
MAN
54%
ENT
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 35
55 Possession 45
4 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

24 Throwins 29
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
4 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 2
13 Goal Kicks 7
6 Successful Dribbles 3
15 Dribble Attempts 8
79 Ball Safe 82
9 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2
71 Attacks 80

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 19
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
42 Long Passes 54
344 Passes 280
277 Successful Passes 188
81 Successful Passes Percentage 67
7 Key Passes 7

Defensive

40 Duels Won 47
6 Interceptions 8
7 Tackles 13
1 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
14 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

18 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Federico Dionisi

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Defender
10
David Wieser
David Wieser Midfielder
36
Flavio Paoletti
Flavio Paoletti
Midfielder76'
17
Nicolò Radaelli
Nicolò Radaelli Midfielder
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Attacker
7
Davis Mensah
Davis Mensah
Attacker20'
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini Attacker
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras
Attacker76'
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso Attacker
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco
Midfielder54'
Referee : Federico Dionisi

Starting XI ▼

22
Federico Del Frate
Federico Del Frate Goalkeeper
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
15
Ivan Marconi
Ivan Marconi Defender
3
Mattia Alborghetti
Mattia Alborghetti
Defender57'
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi Defender
5
Niccolò Squizzato
Niccolò Squizzato Midfielder
7
Davide Bariti
Davide Bariti Midfielder
94
Francesco Mezzoni
Francesco Mezzoni
Defender70'
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić Midfielder
27
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Midfielder77'
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni Midfielder
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Midfielder
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
11
Bernat Guiu
Bernat Guiu
Attacker57'
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli Attacker
19
Alessandro Debenedetti
Alessandro Debenedetti
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Flavio Paoletti
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Tommaso Marras
6th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Tommaso Marras
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
84'
83'
Event
Niccolò Squizzato
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Nicolò Radaelli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
77'
Event
Marco Dalla Vecchia → Nermin Karić
9th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Marras → Davide Bragantini
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Flavio Paoletti → David Wieser
8th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Francesco Mezzoni → Davide Bariti
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Alessandro Debenedetti → Mattia Tirelli
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Andrea Tiritiello
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ali Dembélé
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
57'
Event
Mattia Alborghetti → Ivan Marconi
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Bernat Guiu → Luigi Cuppone
4th Substitution
Event
Francesco Ruocco → Nicolò Buso
2nd Substitution
54'
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Ivan Marconi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Francesco Modesto
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
31'
Event
Davis Mensah → Leonardo Mancuso
1st Substitution
20'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Mantova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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