Lugano vs Thun Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Sat, 4 Apr - 4:00 PM
Super League
Lugano Lugano
1 Winner 0
Thun THU
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Daniel Dos Santos - 59'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Lugano and Thun has finished, with Lugano securing a narrow 1-0 victory. Following a tightly contested first half where the teams remained deadlocked at 0-0, the home side ultimately found the decisive breakthrough in the second period to claim the win. Pre-match market expectations suggested a highly competitive and evenly matched affair, giving both Lugano and Thun an identical 37% probability of winning, alongside a 26% chance of a draw. Despite this perfectly split forecast, the final result represented a significant deviation of 63% in favor of Lugano. Ultimately, the outcome remained aligned with the pre-match market as the stronger team managed to secure the result on their home turf. Lugano controlled the general flow of the game with 57% possession, restricting Thun to 43% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, leaving it undetermined if the 1-0 scoreline strictly aligned with underlying chance creation. However, both teams' overall efficiency shifted in line with standard expectations. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards, ensuring no major disciplinary events impacted the final outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Küng
S. Küng
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
N. Tuberosa
N. Tuberosa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
M. Turkes
M. Turkes
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
J. Mandach
J. Mandach
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.42
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys Rank: 63 D
St. Gallen Rank: 64 D
Luzern Rank: 59 L
Sion Rank: 59 W
Grasshopper Rank: 49 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: 51 L
Grasshopper Rank: 51 W
Young Boys Rank: 63 W
St. Gallen Rank: 64 D
Luzern Rank: 59 W
Winterthur Rank: 45 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
37.02%
Draw
25.96%
Away Thun
37.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.33
55.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Thun
Power Score
63.33
55.93
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
364
319

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Thun

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.21
35.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.81
29.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lugano -0.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Thun +0.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Thun
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Thun
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano Thun
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano Thun
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Thun
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lugano
vs
Thun
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lugano Thun
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lugano 0.45
Thun 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lugano Thun
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lugano 0.00
Thun 0.03
Lugano
Thun
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
22 matches
Thun THU Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
7
Goals
33
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
33
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
A. Saipi
Switzerland
1 A. Saipi
A. Papadopoulos
Germany
6 A. Papadopoulos
L. Mai
Germany
17 L. Mai
H. Delcroix
Belgium
3 H. Delcroix
M. Zanotti
Substitution
Italy
46 M. Zanotti
U. Bislimi
Switzerland
25 U. Bislimi
A. Grgic
Switzerland
8 A. Grgic
Y. Cimignani
Substitution
France
21 Y. Cimignani
R. Steffen
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Steffen
D. dos Santos Correia
Substitution
Switzerland
27 D. dos Santos Correia
G. Koutsias
Substitution
Greece
9 G. Koutsias
N. Steffen
Switzerland
24 N. Steffen
M. Heule
Switzerland
27 M. Heule
J. Bamert
Switzerland
19 J. Bamert
G. Montolio Lafuente
Spain
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
F. Fehr
Switzerland
47 F. Fehr
M. Käit
Substitution
Estonia
14 M. Käit
L. Bertone
Substitution
Switzerland
6 L. Bertone
K. Imeri
Substitution
Switzerland
7 K. Imeri
F. Meichtry
Substitution
77 F. Meichtry
E. Rastoder
Switzerland
74 E. Rastoder
B. Labeau Melchior
Substitution
Martinique
96 B. Labeau Melchior

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity
6390
Attendance
4638
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Susann Küng
N. Tuberosa
Mirel Turkes
Johannes von Mandach

Statistics

Possession
Lugano
55%
THU
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 6
33 Dangerous attacks 48
57 Possession 43
3 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 2
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
23 Throwins 21
5 Substitutions 6
6 Successful Dribbles 6
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
103 Ball Safe 84
13 Goal Attempts 13
11 Goal Kicks 7
11 Dribble Attempts 14

Attacking

66 Attacks 109
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

12 Key Passes 8
446 Passes 317
79 Successful Passes Percentage 73
351 Successful Passes 231
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
68 Long Passes 55
36 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

6 Saves 3
14 Tackles 8
12 Interceptions 11
47 Duels Won 38

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
8 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Johannes von Mandach

Starting XI ▼

1
Amir Saipi
Amir Saipi Goalkeeper
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
26
Martim Marques
Martim Marques
Defender71'
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
7
Pablo Acebal
Pablo Acebal
Defender84'
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias Attacker
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström
Attacker90'
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
29
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Midfielder84'
27
Daniel Dos Santos
Daniel Dos Santos Attacker
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker84'
Referee : Johannes von Mandach

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
4
Genís Montolio
Genís Montolio Defender
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Defender
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Defender
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Defender
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone Midfielder
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth
Midfielder79'
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
70
Nils Reichmuth
Nils Reichmuth
Midfielder67'
14
Mattias Käit
Mattias Käit Midfielder
33
Marc Gutbub
Marc Gutbub
Attacker86'
77
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
9
Furkan Dursun
Furkan Dursun
Attacker67'
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
96
Brighton Labeau
Brighton Labeau Attacker
78
Valmir Matoshi
Valmir Matoshi
Midfielder67'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Niklas Steffen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Elias Pihlström → Georgios Koutsias
10th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Marc Gutbub → Mattias Käit
9th Substitution
Event
Pablo Acebal → Mattia Zanotti
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Mattia Bottani → Daniel Dos Santos
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud → Renato Steffen
8th Substitution
84'
79'
Event
Justin Roth → Leonardo Bertone
5th Substitution
Event
Martim Marques → Yanis Cimignani
4th Substitution
71'
67'
Event
Nils Reichmuth → Kastriot Imeri
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Furkan Dursun → Franz-Ethan Meichtry
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Valmir Matoshi → Brighton Labeau
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Michael Heule
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Dos Santos
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Yanis Cimignani
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
6th Yellowcard
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Antonios Papadopoulos
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
5'
Event
Genís Montolio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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