Livingston vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premiership
Livingston LIV
2 – 2
Hearts Hearts
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Stevie May - 5'
Lewis Smith - 58'
Goal
|
Goal
Lawrence Shankland - 24'
Cláudio Braga - 51'
|
Red Card Marc Leonard 90+7'

CONTEXT

The match between Livingston and Hearts has finished in a 2-2 draw. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Hearts entered the contest as the clear stronger team. The pre-match market gave the visiting side a 63.2% chance of victory, compared to just 14.8% for Livingston and 22% for a draw. Consequently, the final stalemate did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite the even scoreline—which was balanced at 1-1 at half-time—Hearts dominated the ball with 65% possession to Livingston's 35%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final outcome was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, both teams displayed finishing efficiency that was in line with their general attacking output throughout the game. A pivotal moment in the match was the dismissal of a Hearts player. The away side's red card introduced a clear distortion into the game's dynamics, particularly in the second half. This disciplinary issue likely hindered the favorites' ability to capitalize on their significant possession advantage, ultimately forcing them to settle for a shared point on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hearts showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Clancy
K. Clancy
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
J. Bell
J. Bell
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
D. Dunne
D. Dunne
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
S. Murdoch
S. Murdoch
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.27
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
VS
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
0.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
St. Mirren Rank: 58 D
Rangers Rank: 77 D
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Kilmarnock Rank: 54 L
Aberdeen Rank: 56 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 6 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
14.75%
Draw
22.02%
Away Hearts
63.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.68
72.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Hearts
Power Score
51.68
72.21
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
657
149

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Livingston

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Livingston ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.43
35.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.46
47.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Livingston +1.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts -1.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Livingston
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Livingston ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Livingston Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Livingston Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Livingston
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Livingston
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Livingston Hearts
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Livingston 0.47
Hearts 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Livingston Hearts
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Livingston 0.02
Hearts 0.06
Livingston
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
19 matches
Hearts Hearts Away
Match Record
2
Wins
11
6
Draws
6
11
Losses
2
Goals
16
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
16
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:03:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Prior
France
28 J. Prior
D. Finlayson
Northern Ireland
19 D. Finlayson
D. Wilson
Scotland
27 D. Wilson
C. Montaño Castillo
Colombia
26 C. Montaño Castillo
C. Kerr
Substitution
Scotland
2 C. Kerr
L. Smith
Scotland
15 L. Smith
M. Sylla
France
24 M. Sylla
S. May
Substitution
Scotland
17 S. May
B. Fati
Substitution
Portugal
3 B. Fati
S. Arfield
Substitution
Canada
37 S. Arfield
J. Nouble
Substitution
England
7 J. Nouble
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
S. Kingsley
Substitution
Scotland
3 S. Kingsley
J. Mccart
Scotland
5 J. Mccart
C. Halkett
Scotland
4 C. Halkett
O. McEntee
Republic of Ireland
31 O. McEntee
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
C. Devlin
Substitution
Australia
14 C. Devlin
M. Leonard
Scotland
49 M. Leonard
I. Chesnokov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
99 I. Chesnokov
C. Soares Braga
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
L. Shankland
Scotland
9 L. Shankland

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity
9672
Attendance
8952
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kevin Clancy
Jonathan Bell
David Dunne
S. Murdoch

Statistics

Possession
LIV
38%
Hearts
62%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 6
32 Dangerous attacks 81
35 Possession 65
5 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 12
17 Throwins 16
5 Substitutions 4
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
16 Successful Headers 14
9 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Goal Kicks 5
1 Assists 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
91 Ball Safe 103
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

57 Attacks 121
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 87
212 Successful Passes 481
51 Long Passes 67
9 Key Passes 14
288 Passes 554
18 Successful Long Passes 43
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 64

Defensive

44 Duels Won 42
9 Tackles 11
6 Interceptions 2
4 Saves 1

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 29
5 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Kevin Clancy

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Defender
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Defender
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Defender
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr Midfielder
5
Ryan McGowan
Ryan McGowan
Defender78'
3
Babacar Fati
Babacar Fati Midfielder
40
Samson Lawal
Samson Lawal
Midfielder87'
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Midfielder
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Midfielder
20
Emmanuel Danso
Emmanuel Danso
Midfielder65'
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Midfielder
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead
Attacker78'
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Attacker
8
Scott Pittman
Scott Pittman
Attacker65'
Referee : Kevin Clancy

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Defender
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena
Defender84'
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart Defender
31
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Defender
14
Cammy Devlin
Cammy Devlin Midfielder
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime
Midfielder89'
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal
Midfielder89'
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Midfielder
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota
Attacker77'
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Marc Leonard
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
90+6'
Event
Marc Leonard
Card adjusted
89'
Event
Beni Baningime → Cammy Devlin
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Blair Spittal → Alexandros Kyziridis
9th Substitution
Event
Samson Lawal → Babacar Fati
7th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Jordi Altena → Stephen Kingsley
6th Substitution
Event
Ryan McGowan → Cammy Kerr
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Robbie Muirhead → Joel Nouble
5th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Sabah Kerjota → Islam Chesnokov
3rd Substitution
Event
Emmanuel Danso → Stevie May
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Scott Pittman → Scott Arfield
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Lewis Smith
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
58'
51'
Event
Cláudio Braga
Header / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Oisin McEntee
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Scott Arfield
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
Event
4th Yellowcard
34'
24'
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Lewis Smith
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
Event
Stevie May
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

90
Red Card Red Card Important
Marc Leonard from Heart of Midlothian receives a red card in the 97th minute.
89
Substitution Substitution
Blair Spittal is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 89th minute.
89
Substitution Substitution
Beni Baningime is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 89th minute.
87
Substitution Substitution
Samson Lawal is substituted for Livingston in the 87th minute.
84
Substitution Substitution
Jordi Altena is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 84th minute.
78
Substitution Substitution
Robbie Muirhead is substituted for Livingston in the 78th minute.
78
Substitution Substitution
Ryan McGowan is substituted for Livingston in the 78th minute.
77
Substitution Substitution
Sabah Kerjota is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 77th minute.
65
Substitution Substitution
Scott Pittman is substituted for Livingston in the 65th minute.
65
Substitution Substitution
Emmanuel Danso is substituted for Livingston in the 65th minute.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Lewis Smith scores for Livingston at the 58th minute.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Cláudio Braga scores for Heart of Midlothian in the 51st minute.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oisin McEntee of Heart of Midlothian receives a yellow card in the 45th minute.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Scott Arfield from Livingston receives a yellow card in the 34th minute.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Lawrence Shankland scores for Heart of Midlothian at the 24th minute.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Smith from Livingston receives a yellow card in the 22nd minute.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Stevie May scores for Livingston at the 5-minute mark.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hearts exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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