Leicester City vs Bristol City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
King Power Stadium Tue, 10 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Leicester City LEI
2 Winner 0
Bristol City BSC
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 7:45 PM
Ben Nelson - 13'
Issahaku Fatawu - 28'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Leicester City and Bristol City has finished, with Leicester City securing a 2-0 full-time victory. The hosts did all of their scoring in the first half, taking a 2-0 lead into the break and effectively defending it until the final whistle. Interestingly, despite taking the win, Leicester City held only 42% of the possession, while Bristol City controlled the

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leicester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Dallison
A. Dallison
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
W. Smith
W. Smith
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
T. Nield
T. Nield
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
O. Langford
O. Langford
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.31
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Leicester City G. Rowett
G. Rowett
VS
Bristol City G. Struber
G. Struber
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: D
Coventry City Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
Sheffield United Rank: L
Derby County Rank: W
Watford Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Oxford United Rank: D
Preston North End Rank: L
Portsmouth Rank: W
Millwall Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leicester City
39.81%
Draw
27.23%
Away Bristol City
32.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.43
21.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leicester City
Bristol City
Power Score
26.43
21.67
League Position
21
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leicester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leicester City Bristol City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leicester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bristol City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leicester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.17
20.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.43
44.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leicester City +2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Bristol City -2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leicester City
Bristol City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leicester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leicester City Bristol City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leicester City Bristol City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leicester City
Bristol City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leicester City LEI Home
3 matches
Bristol City BSC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:02:35+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
King Power Stadium
Capacity
32312
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrew Dallison
Wade Smith
Tom Nield
Oliver Langford

Statistics

Possession
LEI
45%
BSC
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 6
31 Dangerous attacks 57
42 Possession 58
5 Corners 9
13 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
10 Goal Attempts 2
61 Ball Safe 50
0 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 0
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 8
25 Throwins 25
8 Successful Headers 13
16 Dribble Attempts 12
2 Assists 0
5 Successful Dribbles 1
4 Goal Kicks 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
74 Attacks 110

Possession

400 Passes 559
80 Successful Passes Percentage 84
321 Successful Passes 472
14 Key Passes 5
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
16 Successful Long Passes 20
43 Long Passes 46

Defensive

43 Duels Won 49
18 Tackles 24
1 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 23
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 13

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Sam Morsy
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Joe Aribo → Issahaku Fatawu
9th Substitution
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Sinclair Armstrong
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Delano Burgzorg → Emil Riis
8th Substitution
Event
Divine Mukasa → Bobby De Cordova-Reid
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Ricardo Pereira → Hamza Choudhury
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Patson Daka → Jordan Ayew
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Harry Winks → Jordan James
5th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Emil Riis
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Ben Nelson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Neto Borges
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Sinclair Armstrong → Scott Twine
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Cameron Pring → Ross McCrorie
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Mark Sykes → Max Bird
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Hamza Choudhury
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
Event
Issahaku Fatawu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
28'
Event
Ben Nelson
Header / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Joe Aribo comes on to replace Abdul Fatawu.
90
Update Update
Oliver Skipp from Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Leicester City defeating Bristol City 2-0.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sinclair Armstrong from Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Sam Morsy commits a foul against Bristol City.
90
Update Update
Harry Winks from Leicester City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sam Morsy of Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Divine Mukasa from Leicester City fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
89
Update Update
Patson Daka of Leicester City committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Neto Borges from Bristol City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Oliver Skipp from Leicester City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg from Bristol City committed a foul.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leicester City after a deflection off Cameron Pring.
82
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City earned a free kick on the right flank.
82
Update Update
Delano Burgzorg from Bristol City committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Luke Thomas from Leicester City committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Oliver Skipp from Leicester City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Delano Burgzorg is coming on to replace Emil Riis.
79
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Stephy Mavididi from Leicester City attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Divine Mukasa comes on to replace Bobby De Cordova-Reid.
75
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Abdul Fatawu from Leicester City attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
75
Update Update
Caleb Okoli of Leicester City had a great opportunity but failed to convert. He attempted a header from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Abdul Fatawu.
72
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Abdul Fatawu from Leicester City attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target. The chance was set up by Bobby De Cordova-Reid after a quick counterattack.
70
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Patson Daka from Leicester City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the right corner by Radek Vítek of Bristol City, with Abdul Fatawu providing the assist.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Ricardo Pereira comes on to replace Hamza Choudhury.
69
Update Update
Ricardo Pereira from Leicester City committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Ricardo Pereira from Leicester City committed a foul.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Patson Daka comes on to replace Jordan Ayew.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Harry Winks comes on to replace Jordan James.
65
Attempt Attempt
Penalty attempt thwarted! Emil Riis of Bristol City took a shot with his right foot, but Jakub Stolarczyk from Leicester City made a fantastic save, diving to his right to keep the ball out of the net.
65
Update Update
Offside call against Leicester City. Bobby De Cordova-Reid has been flagged for being offside.
63
Update Update
Luke Thomas from Leicester City committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Penalty awarded against Ben Nelson of Leicester City for committing a foul inside the box.
63
Update Update
Bristol City has been awarded a penalty after Emil Riis was fouled inside the box.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Nelson from Leicester City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
62
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Neto Borges committed a foul against a player from Bristol City.
61
Update Update
Neto Borges committed a foul against a Bristol City player.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Neto Borges of Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Cameron Pring replaces Ross McCrorie.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Sinclair Armstrong replaces Scott Twine.
59
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Abdul Fatawu of Leicester City took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide. The assist came from Hamza Choudhury.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sam Morsy from Bristol City fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Scott Twine from Bristol City attempts a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from George Tanner, who delivered a cross.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leicester City after a defensive play by Sam Morsy.
56
Update Update
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Jordan Ayew of Leicester City headed the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Bobby De Cordova-Reid, who delivered a cross.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Luke Thomas from Leicester City takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leicester City after Jason Knight allowed the ball to go out.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Hamza Choudhury allowed the ball to go out.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leicester City after Neto Borges allowed the ball to go out.
46
Update Update
George Tanner from Bristol City committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Stephy Mavididi from Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Leicester City leading Bristol City 2-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Mark Sykes comes on to replace Max Bird.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Leicester City leading Bristol City by a score of 2-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Leicester City leading Bristol City by a score of 2-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Leicester City leading Bristol City 2-0.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Leicester City 2, Bristol City 0.
44
Corner Corner
Bristol City has been awarded a corner kick after Hamza Choudhury allowed the ball to go out of play.
44
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Tomi Horvat from Bristol City took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Scott Twine following a corner kick.
43
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
43
Update Update
George Tanner from Bristol City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Stephy Mavididi from Leicester City committed a foul.
40
Attempt Attempt
Max Bird from Bristol City attempts a shot with his left foot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected. The assist came from Scott Twine.
40
Update Update
Jordan James from Leicester City committed a foul.
37
Update Update
George Tanner from Bristol City earned a free kick on the right flank.
37
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Neto Borges from Bristol City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Tomi Horvat.
36
Update Update
Jordan Ayew of Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Sam Morsy from Bristol City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Update Update
Bobby De Cordova-Reid commits a foul against Leicester City.
36
Update Update
Jordan Ayew committed a foul against Leicester City.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hamza Choudhury of Leicester City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
32
Update Update
Scott Twine from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Hamza Choudhury from Leicester City committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Jakub Stolarczyk from Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Bristol City has been called for offside. Tomi Horvat is positioned beyond the last defender.
30
Update Update
Emil Riis committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ross McCrorie from Bristol City fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Luke Thomas allowed the ball to go out.
26
Corner Corner
Goal! Leicester City leads 2-0 against Bristol City. Abdul Fatawu scores with a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, finding the bottom corner. The assist comes from Bobby De Cordova-Reid.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Stephy Mavididi allowed the ball to go out.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Bobby De Cordova-Reid of Leicester City attempted a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The setup came from a cross by Stephy Mavididi.
17
Attempt Attempt
Stephy Mavididi from Leicester City strikes the right post with a right-footed shot taken from the left side of the penalty area, assisted by Abdul Fatawu.
17
Update Update
Offside call against Leicester City. Stephy Mavididi has been caught offside.
17
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jordan James of Leicester City heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Radek Vítek of Bristol City makes a save in the left corner. The assist comes from Abdul Fatawu, who delivered a cross into the area.
17
Update Update
Ross McCrorie committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
15
Update Update
Bobby De Cordova-Reid from Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Oliver Skipp from Leicester City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Fouled by Tomi Horvat of Bristol City.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a foul by Luke Thomas.
10
Update Update
Ross McCrorie commits a foul against Bristol City.
10
Corner Corner
Goal! Leicester City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Bristol City. Ben Nelson scores with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Jordan James, who delivered a precise cross.
7
Update Update
Ross McCrorie committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
7
Update Update
Abdul Fatawu from Leicester City has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
6
Update Update
Abdul Fatawu from Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Ross McCrorie committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
5
Update Update
Abdul Fatawu from Leicester City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Leicester City. Stephy Mavididi takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Jordan James.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Jakub Stolarczyk allowed the ball to go out.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a defensive play by Hamza Choudhury.
4
Update Update
Offside call against Bristol City. Neto Borges has been caught in an offside position.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Jakub Stolarczyk allowed it to go out.
3
Corner Corner
Bristol City has earned a corner kick after Caleb Okoli allowed the ball to go out.
3
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sam Morsy from Bristol City fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
2
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Luke Thomas from Leicester City attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Jordan Ayew following a corner kick.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Leicester City after Ross McCrorie allowed the ball to go out.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Stephy Mavididi from Leicester City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ben Nelson.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leicester City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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