Lech Poznań vs Nieciecza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Enea stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
4 Winner 1
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:45 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Leo Bengtsson - 33', 36'
Ali Gholizadeh - 37'
Taofeek Ismaheel - 87'
Goal
|
Goal
Gabriel Isik - 65'
|
Second yellow card Krzysztof Kubica 79'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with a full-time score of Lech Poznań 1-1 Nieciecza. This draw represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Lech Poznań entered the contest as heavy favorites. The pre-match market gave the home side a commanding 72% probability of winning, while a draw sat at 17.5% and an away victory was priced at just 10.5%. Consequently, the final outcome completely failed to align with the pre-match market predictions. Lech Poznań controlled the tempo throughout the contest, dominating the ball with 67% possession compared to Nieciecza's 33%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the outcome was consistent with the quality of scoring chances. However, the overall efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with general performance metrics. The dynamics of the game were heavily influenced by disciplinary action, as Nieciecza received a red card. This created a notable red card distortion that impacted second-half adjustments and overall game flow. Despite playing with a numerical disadvantage and conceding the bulk of possession, the visiting side resiliently held on to secure an unlikely stalemate against the stronger hosts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: 57 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 62 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 L
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
72.03%
Draw
17.52%
Away Nieciecza
10.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.14
47.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
Nieciecza
Power Score
70.14
47.48
League Position
1
18
Global Rank
195
712

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.99
33.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.18
42.99
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lech Poznań +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Nieciecza -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Nieciecza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lech Poznań Nieciecza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Nieciecza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Nieciecza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Home
10 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
8
Goals
28
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
28
+20
Goal Difference
-20
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
M. Skrzypczak
Poland
72 M. Skrzypczak
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
A. Gholizadeh
Substitution
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 (C) M. Ishak
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
A. Putivtsev
Ukraine
77 (C) A. Putivtsev
M. Matysik
Poland
32 M. Matysik
G. Isik
Germany
29 G. Isik
D. Hilbrycht
Substitution
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
K. Kubica
Poland
13 K. Kubica
M. Ambrosiewicz
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
S. Guerrero Romero
Substitution
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
D. Paniek
Substitution
Poland
17 D. Paniek
I. Durdov
Substitution
Croatia
19 I. Durdov
J. Jiménez Núñez
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Enea stadion
Capacity
42837
Attendance
32239
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Michal Sobczak
Łukasz Ostrowski

Statistics

Possession
Lech Poznań
64%
Nieciecza
36%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 3
56 Dangerous attacks 39
67 Possession 33
6 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Goal Attempts 6
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
15 Throwins 13
4 Goal Kicks 13
75 Ball Safe 58
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
7 Successful Dribbles 4
15 Dribble Attempts 12

Attacking

101 Attacks 71
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

26 Successful Long Passes 24
89 Successful Passes Percentage 75
68 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
38 Long Passes 42
499 Successful Passes 203
21 Key Passes 7
560 Passes 271

Defensive

3 Saves 5
5 Interceptions 4
12 Tackles 13

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 10
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
6.79
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
7.73
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
7.17
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
6.84
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Mateusz Skrzypczak Defender
6.79
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
7.55
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Taofeek Ismaheel
Midfielder78'
7.31
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
7.1
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma
Midfielder60'
6.59
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
2
8.28
53
Sammy Dudek
Sammy Dudek
Midfielder84'
6.59
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6.73
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
7.42
23
Gísli Thórdarson
Gísli Thórdarson
Midfielder60'
6.97
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak (C) Attacker
7.32
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker85'
6.5
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
7.02
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik Defender
6.69
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik Defender
6.05
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev (C) Defender
6.04
13
Krzysztof Kubica
Krzysztof Kubica Midfielder
6.26
17
Dominik Biniek
Dominik Biniek Midfielder
6.51
7
Morgan Faßbender
Morgan Faßbender
Midfielder53'
6.59
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
6.54
26
Wojciech Jakubik
Wojciech Jakubik
Midfielder90'
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
6.32
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero
Defender53'
6.49
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
6.07
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
6.56
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek
Midfielder81'
6.28
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov Attacker
6.39
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik
Attacker53'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Lucas Masoero
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Wojciech Jakubik → Damian Hilbrycht
10th Substitution
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
87'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Sammy Dudek → Leo Bengtsson
8th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Artem Putivtsev
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Igor Strzalek → Jesús Jiménez
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Krzysztof Kubica
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel → Ali Gholizadeh
6th Substitution
78'
71'
Event
Milosz Matysik
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Foul / Goal Disallowed
65'
Event
Gabriel Isik
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Gísli Thórdarson → Pablo Rodríguez
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Luis Palma → Patrik Wålemark
4th Substitution
60'
53'
Event
Lucas Masoero → Sergio Guerrero
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Morgan Faßbender → Dominik Biniek
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Kamil Zapolnik → Ivan Durdov
3rd Substitution
52'
Event
Krzysztof Kubica
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Ali Gholizadeh
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
37'
Event
Leo Bengtsson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Leo Bengtsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Goal cancelled
9'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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