Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Sun, 15 Mar - 7:45 PM
Serie A
Lazio LAZ
1 Winner 0
AC Milan MIL
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 7:45 PM
Gustav Isaksen - 26'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Lazio securing a 1-0 victory over AC Milan, successfully holding onto their 1-0 half-time lead. This result represents a significant deviation for Lazio, who defied heavy pre-match expectations. AC Milan entered the fixture as the distinctly stronger team, boasting a 51.5% probability of winning according to the pre-match market, compared to Lazio's mere 21.7% chance and a 26.9% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market. AC Milan controlled the tempo, dominating the ball with 59% possession compared to Lazio's 41%. Because expected goals (xG) data is currently unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final scoreline was consistent with the overall quality of chances created by either side. Lazio's narrow victory was further complicated by a sending-off, as the home side received one red card. This numerical disadvantage caused a noticeable red card distortion during the second half. Nevertheless, the underlying efficiency shift remained entirely in line with expectations, as a resilient Lazio bravely defended their early advantage to complete a dramatic upset.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lazio showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Guida
M. Guida
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
G. Peretti
G. Peretti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
G. Perrotti
G. Perrotti
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
G. Ayroldi
G. Ayroldi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.09
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cagliari Rank: 71 D
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Genoa Rank: 73 W
Lecce Rank: 69 D
Como Rank: 82 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 72 L
Como Rank: 82 D
Pisa Rank: 65 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Roma Rank: 85 D
Lecce Rank: 69 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 16 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
21.65%
Draw
26.85%
Away AC Milan
51.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.45
86.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
AC Milan
Power Score
79.45
86.22
League Position
9
2
Global Rank
59
23

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio AC Milan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.98
34.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.75
20.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lazio -1.46 Efficiency Index
vs
AC Milan +1.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
AC Milan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio
vs
AC Milan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio AC Milan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio AC Milan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Lazio
AC Milan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
11 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
14
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T13:50:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
A. Marušić
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
M. Fuentes
Spain
34 M. Fuentes
O. Nielsen
Denmark
25 O. Nielsen
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
F. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
P. Gabarrón Gil
Spain
4 P. Gabarrón Gil
K. Taylor
Substitution
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
Substitution
Denmark
18 G. Isaksen
D. Maldini
Substitution
Italy
27 D. Maldini
M. Zaccagni
Substitution
Italy
10 (C) M. Zaccagni
M. Maignan
France
16 (C) M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
K. De Winter
Belgium
5 K. De Winter
F. Tomori
Substitution
England
23 F. Tomori
P. Estupiñán Tenorio
Substitution
Ecuador
2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
A. Jasari
Switzerland
30 A. Jasari
L. Modrić
Croatia
14 L. Modrić
Y. Fofana
Substitution
France
19 Y. Fofana
A. Saelemaekers
Substitution
Belgium
56 A. Saelemaekers
C. Pulisic
United States
11 C. Pulisic
R. Conceição Leão
Substitution
Portugal
10 R. Conceição Leão

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity
72698
Attendance
50000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida
Giorgio Peretti
Giuseppe Perrotti
Giovanni Ayroldi

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
43%
MIL
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 6
32 Dangerous attacks 70
41 Possession 59
1 Corners 9
19 Free kicks 7
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

85 Ball Safe 74
3 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
12 Throwins 22
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
8 Goal Kicks 4
9 Successful Headers 9
15 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

89 Attacks 119
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

6 Key Passes 14
344 Successful Passes 501
85 Successful Passes Percentage 89
406 Passes 561
52 Long Passes 38
25 Successful Long Passes 25
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
11 Interceptions 8
3 Saves 2

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 33
1 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

7 Fouls 19
3 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
7.06
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
7.28
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Defender
7.03
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
8.04
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
7.07
4
Patric
Patric Midfielder
7.22
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
6.65
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
7.09
21
Reda Belahyane
Reda Belahyane
Midfielder90'
6.5
10
Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni (C) Attacker
7.16
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri
Attacker83'
6.64
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen Attacker
7.41
9
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker67'
6.4
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini Attacker
6.89
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker67'
6.49
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan (C) Goalkeeper
6.71
5
Koni De Winter
Koni De Winter Defender
6.71
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
6.63
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame
Defender57'
6.74
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.93
2
Pervis Estupiñán
Pervis Estupiñán Midfielder
6.53
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi
Defender57'
6.82
14
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić Midfielder
7.26
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.85
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku
Attacker67'
6.47
30
Ardon Jashari
Ardon Jashari Midfielder
6.76
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
7.56
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci
Midfielder84'
6.62
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
6.42
9
Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug
Attacker67'
6.46
11
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic Attacker
7.42

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maurizio Sarri
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+7'
Event
Patric 
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Pedro
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Reda Belahyane → Kenneth Taylor
9th Substitution
90'
84'
Event
Samuele Ricci → Alexis Saelemaekers
8th Substitution
Event
Matteo Cancellieri → Mattia Zaccagni 
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Nuno Tavares
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
76'
Event
Var
Event
Edoardo Motta
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
6th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Boulaye Dia → Daniel Maldini
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Pedro → Gustav Isaksen
6th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Niclas Füllkrug → Rafael Leão
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Christopher Nkunku → Youssouf Fofana
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Davide Bartesaghi → Pervis Estupiñán
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Zachary Athekame → Fikayo Tomori
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Pervis Estupiñán
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Gustav Isaksen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
26'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ardon Jashari from AC Milan took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Luka Modric.
90
Update Update
Patric from Lazio committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Koni De Winter of AC Milan committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AC Milan after Mario Gila allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Mario Gila from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Luka Modric from AC Milan fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Samuele Ricci.
90
Update Update
Offside call against AC Milan. Niclas Füllkrug has been caught in an offside position.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AC Milan after a deflection off Pedro.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Christopher Nkunku from AC Milan committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ardon Jashari from AC Milan was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Reda Belahyane replaces Kenneth Taylor due to an injury.
90
Update Update
Adam Marusic from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Lazio defeating AC Milan 1-0.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patric from Lazio has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pedro from Lazio has been shown a yellow card.
87
Update Update
Davide Bartesaghi of AC Milan committed a foul.
87
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Koni De Winter from AC Milan attempts a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Christian Pulisic.
87
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
85
Update Update
Offside call against AC Milan. Niclas Füllkrug is caught in an offside position.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Samuele Ricci comes on to replace Alexis Saelemaekers.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Matteo Cancellieri comes on to replace Mattia Zaccagni.
83
Update Update
Nuno Tavares from Lazio committed a handball.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Luka Modric of AC Milan attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
81
Update Update
Nuno Tavares from Lazio committed a foul.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nuno Tavares from Lazio has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
81
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers of AC Milan earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
80
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AC Milan after Mario Gila allowed the ball to go out.
80
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Davide Bartesaghi from AC Milan fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AC Milan after a play that resulted in a deflection off Mario Gila.
78
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AC Milan after Adam Marusic allowed the ball to go out of play.
78
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AC Milan after a deflection off Edoardo Motta.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AC Milan after Mario Gila allowed the ball to go out.
77
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Patric from Lazio attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Mattia Zaccagni.
75
Update Update
Zachary Athekame of AC Milan commits a handball.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AC Milan after Mattia Zaccagni allowed the ball to go out.
73
Update Update
Offside call against AC Milan. Christopher Nkunku has been flagged for being in an offside position.
71
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Zachary Athekame of AC Milan took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Alexis Saelemaekers.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Edoardo Motta of Lazio has been shown a yellow card.
69
Update Update
Offside call against AC Milan. Niclas Füllkrug has been caught in an offside position.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Christopher Nkunku replaces Youssouf Fofana.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Niclas Füllkrug replaces Rafael Leão.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Pedro comes on to replace Daniel Maldini.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Boulaye Dia replaces Gustav Isaksen.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Luka Modric of AC Milan attempted a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Ardon Jashari.
62
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Christian Pulisic of AC Milan took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Alexis Saelemaekers, who delivered a cross.
62
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Christian Pulisic of AC Milan took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Alexis Saelemaekers, who delivered a cross.
61
Update Update
Davide Bartesaghi of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio committed a foul.
60
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan committed a foul.
60
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gustav Isaksen from Lazio fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Kenneth Taylor.
59
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic committed a foul against AC Milan.
59
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru from Lazio has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Zachary Athekame replaces Fikayo Tomori.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Davide Bartesaghi comes on to replace Pervis Estupiñán.
57
Update Update
Daniel Maldini from Lazio earned a free kick on the left flank.
57
Update Update
Koni De Winter of AC Milan committed a foul.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pervis Estupiñán of AC Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
55
Update Update
Pervis Estupiñán committed a foul against AC Milan.
55
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen of Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Nuno Tavares committed a foul against Lazio.
53
Update Update
Luka Modric from AC Milan was awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
52
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Youssouf Fofana of AC Milan attempts a header from the middle of the box. However, the shot is expertly stopped by goalkeeper Edoardo Motta of Lazio, who is positioned centrally. The assist for this opportunity came from Ardon Jashari.
52
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ardon Jashari from AC Milan attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide to the left. The assist came from Alexis Saelemaekers.
51
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Christian Pulisic of AC Milan attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
50
Update Update
Offside called against Lazio. Nuno Tavares has been flagged for being in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Lazio leading AC Milan 1-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Lazio leading AC Milan 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
42
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lazio after Fikayo Tomori allowed the ball to go out.
40
Update Update
Koni De Winter from AC Milan committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Daniel Maldini from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
39
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
38
Update Update
Christian Pulisic of AC Milan was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
38
Update Update
Adam Marusic from Lazio committed a foul.
38
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Christian Pulisic of AC Milan fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The setup came from Alexis Saelemaekers, who delivered a cross.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Lazio. Daniel Maldini is caught in an offside position.
36
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was denied. Rafael Leão of AC Milan took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was intercepted. The assist came from Youssouf Fofana.
36
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Daniel Maldini of Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Mike Maignan of AC Milan makes a save, diving to his right. The assist comes from Oliver Provstgaard.
31
Update Update
Offside call against Lazio. Mattia Zaccagni is caught in an offside position.
29
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
29
Update Update
Alexis Saelemaekers of AC Milan committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Koni De Winter of AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Koni De Winter from AC Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Youssouf Fofana from AC Milan committed a foul.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lazio takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against AC Milan. Gustav Isaksen scores with a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, finding the bottom left corner of the net. The assist comes from Adam Marusic.
25
Attempt Attempt
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
23
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity missed. Pervis Estupiñán of AC Milan attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
20
Update Update
Koni De Winter of AC Milan has committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Koni De Winter from AC Milan committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Fikayo Tomori from AC Milan committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Daniel Maldini of Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Luka Modric commits a foul against AC Milan.
15
Update Update
Christian Pulisic of AC Milan committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Patric from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio commits a handball.
12
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio commits a handball.
11
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic from AC Milan committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Adam Marusic from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Christian Pulisic from AC Milan fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AC Milan after Oliver Provstgaard allowed the ball to go out.
10
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Strahinja Pavlovic of AC Milan takes a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it's blocked on the left side.
8
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Fikayo Tomori from AC Milan committed a foul.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nuno Tavares from Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lazio exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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