LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Raiffeisen Arena Sun, 19 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
LASK Linz ASK
Versus
Sturm Graz STU
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 3:00 PM
Round 5 Championship Round

CONTEXT

LASK Linz are set to host Sturm Graz at the Raiffeisen Arena in a pivotal Admiral Bundesliga Championship Round match during the 2025/2026 season. The home team currently occupies third position in the standings, while their opponents lead the table. Power scores give LASK a modest edge at 29.39 against Sturm Graz's 27.95, suggesting a closely matched affair with the home side slightly favored. Form remains positive for both, as LASK recorded a win in their last outing away at Salzburg and Sturm Graz played out a draw at home to Hartberg. With LASK's recent six-match record at W3 D2 L1 and Sturm's at W3 D3 L0, consistency has been evident. The encounter will test each side's ability to dominate structurally and convert chances efficiently. Given the competitive nature of the league, every point carries significant weight in this stage of the campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural: LASK Linz, in third, host league leaders Sturm Graz with a slight power advantage of 1.4 points at home.
  • Form: Both teams show strong recent form, with Sturm unbeaten in six and LASK winning their last match against Salzburg.
  • Squad: Squads are expected to be near full strength, setting up an intriguing tactical battle in the championship round.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not currently available, so focus shifts to power scores and league positions.
  • Transition: Quick transitions will be vital, as both sides possess the quality to punish any defensive lapses.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data is limited with low confidence levels, relying on proxy metrics for analysis.
  • xVariable: The xVariable centers on LASK's home performance versus Sturm's strong away form this season.
  • Market: LASK Linz 42.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.3% (Δ+0%) | Sturm Graz 30.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
2.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: W
SK Rapid Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: D
SK Rapid Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 10 - 21
21
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LASK Linz
42.52%
Draw
27.31%
Away Sturm Graz
30.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.39
27.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LASK Linz
Sturm Graz
Power Score
29.39
27.95
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LASK Linz Sturm Graz

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LASK Linz ASK Home
46 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
15
Wins
21
10
Draws
10
21
Losses
15
Goals
59
Goals Scored
77
77
Goals Conceded
59
-18
Goal Difference
+18
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T01:06:36+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
L. Jungwirth
1 L. Jungwirth
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
J. Tornich
43 J. Tornich
A. Andrade Cedeño
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
I. Coulibaly
4 I. Coulibaly
S. Horvath
30 S. Horvath
M. Bogarde
6 M. Bogarde
S. Kalajdzic
10 S. Kalajdzic
M. Usor
8 M. Usor
S. Adeniran
7 S. Adeniran
D. Khudyakov
53 D. Khudyakov
P. Koller
30 P. Koller
J. Mitchell
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
5 A. Vallci
J. Hödl
43 J. Hödl
L. Weinhandl
39 L. Weinhandl
J. Gorenc Stankovič
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
J. Gazibegovic
22 J. Gazibegovic
G. Mamageishvili
15 G. Mamageishvili
O. Kiteishvili
10 O. Kiteishvili
S. Jatta
20 S. Jatta

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 5 · Championship Round
Stadium
Raiffeisen Arena
Capacity
19080
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Walter Altmann
Roland Brandner
Luka Katholnig
Achim Untergasser

Expected Lineup

Referee : Walter Altmann

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
6.83
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
7
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
7.02
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
7.02
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
7.19
4
Ismaila Coulibaly
Ismaila Coulibaly Central Midfield
6.76
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Right Back
7.06
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Left Back
7.27
30
Sascha Horvath
Sascha Horvath Central Midfield
6.94
43
Alemão
Alemão Centre Back
6.93
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacking Midfield
6.88
Referee : Walter Altmann

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.76
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Midfielder
6.8
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Midfielder
6.91
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
7.35
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.62
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Centre Forward
6.61
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Centre Back
7.07
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Left Back
6.86
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Central Midfield
6.91
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Central Midfield
6.98
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Right Back
7.2

CONCLUSION

This pre-match analysis suggests a tight contest where LASK Linz can capitalize on their home ground and marginal power advantage to challenge the league leaders. Sturm Graz arrive with an unbeaten streak but may struggle to break down a well-organized LASK defense. Key factors include how both teams handle transitions from defense to attack and their effectiveness from set pieces, though data in these areas remains limited. The form of key players and tactical adjustments by the managers will likely determine the winner in this analytical showdown. Expect LASK to push for the victory, but Sturm's resilience makes a draw a distinct possibility in what shapes up as a high-quality Austrian league battle.

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