LASK Linz vs Hartberg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Raiffeisen Arena Fri, 13 Mar - 6:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
LASK Linz ASK
0 – 0
Hartberg HTB
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 6:30 PM
|
Red Card Youba Diarra 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between LASK Linz and Hartberg has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. Coming into the game, LASK Linz were clear favorites with a 57.4% implied probability of victory, while the draw stood at 24.6% and a Hartberg win at 18%. The final stalemate represents a significant deviation from these pre-match expectations, frustrating the heavily favored LASK Linz side. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the result was consistent with the underlying shot metrics. However, LASK Linz held a slight edge in ball control, recording 52% possession compared to Hartberg's 48%. Overall, the teams' efficiency shifts remained in line with their general performance patterns throughout the contest. A critical event in the fixture was a red card issued to Hartberg. Despite being reduced to ten men, the away side managed to defensively hold their ground. The second half featured noticeable red card distortion, altering the match dynamics, but LASK Linz ultimately failed to capitalize on their numerical advantage to break the deadlock.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LASK Linz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Sadikovski
A. Sadikovski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
A. Borucki
A. Borucki
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Hartl
M. Hartl
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
S. Sampl
S. Sampl
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
VS
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 62 W
Austria Wien Rank: 66 D
Salzburg Rank: 70 L
Ried Rank: 53 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 W
Grazer AK Rank: 49 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 D
Salzburg Rank: 70 D
Grazer AK Rank: 49 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 D
SK Rapid Rank: 58 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LASK Linz
57.42%
Draw
24.61%
Away Hartberg
17.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.48
59.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LASK Linz
Hartberg
Power Score
64.48
59.72
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
317
470

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LASK Linz Hartberg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hartberg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
62.88
15.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.00
62.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LASK Linz +3.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Hartberg -3.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Hartberg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LASK Linz
vs
Hartberg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LASK Linz Hartberg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LASK Linz Hartberg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
LASK Linz
Hartberg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LASK Linz ASK Home
19 matches
Hartberg HTB Away
Match Record
4
Wins
4
11
Draws
11
4
Losses
4
Goals
23
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
23
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:29:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
X. Mbuyamba
Netherlands
3 X. Mbuyamba
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 (C) A. Andrade Cedeño
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
C. Lang
Substitution
Austria
27 C. Lang
G. Bello
United States
2 G. Bello
M. Usor
Nigeria
8 M. Usor
S. Kalajdzic
Austria
10 S. Kalajdzic
S. Adeniran
Substitution
United States
7 S. Adeniran
T. Hülsmann
Germany
40 T. Hülsmann
M. Hennig
Germany
33 M. Hennig
H. Coulibaly
Spain
6 H. Coulibaly
F. Wilfinger
Austria
18 F. Wilfinger
D. Vincze
Austria
3 D. Vincze
L. Pazourek
Substitution
Austria
2 L. Pazourek
Y. Diarra
Mali
5 Y. Diarra
B. Markuš
Slovenia
4 B. Markuš
J. Heil
Substitution
Austria
28 (C) J. Heil
E. Havel
Substitution
Austria
7 E. Havel
M. Aziz
Substitution
61 M. Aziz

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
Raiffeisen Arena
Capacity
19080
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Alain Sadikovski
Alexander Borucki
Mattias Hartl
Samuel Sampl

Statistics

Possession
ASK
54%
HTB
46%

Top Statistics

4 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 4
74 Dangerous attacks 24
52 Possession 48
12 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 7
5 Goal Kicks 21
15 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Successful Dribbles 6
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
17 Goal Attempts 2
74 Ball Safe 95
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Substitutions 5

Attacking

130 Attacks 78
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

326 Successful Passes 300
17 Key Passes 2
83 Successful Passes Percentage 77
393 Passes 391
53 Long Passes 62
68 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
36 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

0 Saves 4
11 Tackles 16
14 Interceptions 10

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 5
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

16 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
6.7
3
Xavier Mbuyamba
Xavier Mbuyamba Defender
7.04
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade (C) Defender
8.32
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Defender
7.33
2
George Bello
George Bello Midfielder
7.26
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
7.06
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
7.05
27
Christoph Lang
Christoph Lang Midfielder
7.28
44
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda
Midfielder79'
6.37
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
6.69
11
Maximilian Entrup
Maximilian Entrup
Attacker66'
6.42
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
7.4
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacker
7.16
Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

40
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper
7.77
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek Defender
7.19
95
Damjan Kovacevic
Damjan Kovacevic
Defender79'
6.46
3
Dominic Vincze
Dominic Vincze Defender
7.18
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
7.41
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Defender
7.28
33
Maximilian Hennig
Maximilian Hennig Defender
6.94
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Midfielder
6.63
5
Youba Diarra
Youba Diarra Midfielder
7.13
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil (C) Midfielder
6.48
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz
Midfielder46'
6.63
7
Elias Havel
Elias Havel Attacker
6.27
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas
Attacker61'
6.3
61
Musibau Aziz
Musibau Aziz Attacker
6.53
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann
Attacker46'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Julian Halwachs → Lukas Fridrikas
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Youba Diarra
Foul / 1st Redcard
81'
Event
Tobias Kainz
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Lukas Kacavenda → Christoph Lang
5th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Damjan Kovacevic → Luca Pazourek
6th Substitution
Event
Modou Kéba Cissé
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
75'
Event
Lukas Fridrikas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Maximilian Entrup → Samuel Adeniran
4th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Lukas Fridrikas → Elias Havel
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Maximilian Hennig
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Marco Hoffmann → Musibau Aziz
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tobias Kainz → Jürgen Heil
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Elias Havel
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LASK Linz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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