Las Palmas vs Granada Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de Gran Canaria Thu, 2 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga 2
Las Palmas LPA
2 Winner 0
Granada GRA
Full Time Thu, 2 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Taisei Miyashiro - 49'
Cristian Gutiérrez - 88'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Las Palmas and Granada has officially finished, with the hosts securing a 2-0 victory at full-time. Following an evenly matched first half that ended 0-0, Las Palmas broke the deadlock in the second period to claim the win. The outcome was firmly aligned with the pre-match market. Although Granada was designated as the overall stronger team, Las Palmas entered the game as clear betting favorites with a 55.4% win probability, compared to a 27.6% chance for a draw and 17% for Granada. The final result represented a significant deviation level of 44.6% associated with Las Palmas. On the pitch, the match flow was perfectly balanced, highlighted by an exact 50-50 possession split between the two sides. While specific expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to assess underlying chance creation, the game's overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with general expectations. Furthermore, the fixture remained free of any red card incidents, allowing Las Palmas to secure a straightforward home victory that accurately validated the pre-game betting forecasts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Las Palmas showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Fernández Correas
D. Fernández Correas
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
R. Landrove Lago
R. Landrove Lago
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Gil Soriano
M. Gil Soriano
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
S. Lax Franco
S. Lax Franco
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
VS
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 W
Albacete Rank: 63 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 W
Castellón Rank: 66 D
Mirandés Rank: 58 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 W
Málaga Rank: 68 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Leganés Rank: 66 L
Racing Santander Rank: 70 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Las Palmas
55.42%
Draw
27.55%
Away Granada
17.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.98
66.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Las Palmas
Granada
Power Score
62.98
66.38
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
181
275

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Las Palmas Granada

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.70
22.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.80
18.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Las Palmas -0.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Granada +0.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Granada
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Las Palmas Granada
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Las Palmas Granada
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Granada
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Las Palmas LPA Home
13 matches
Granada GRA Away
Match Record
4
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
4
Goals
22
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
22
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-03T00:00:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Horkaš
Croatia
1 D. Horkaš
V. Álvarez Rozada
Spain
17 V. Álvarez Rozada
Á. Suárez
Substitution
Spain
4 Á. Suárez
M. Marmol Medina
Spain
3 M. Marmol Medina
E. Clemente Maza
Spain
5 E. Clemente Maza
T. Miyashiro
Japan
18 T. Miyashiro
E. Loiodice
Substitution
France
12 E. Loiodice
L. Amatucci
Italy
16 L. Amatucci
P. García Mejías
Substitution
Spain
22 P. García Mejías
I. Bravo Solanilla
Substitution
Spain
49 I. Bravo Solanilla
M. Fuster Lázaro
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
A. Astralaga Aranguren
Spain
13 A. Astralaga Aranguren
D. Hormigo Iturralde
Spain
3 D. Hormigo Iturralde
L. Ntambue Kayumba
Spain
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
M. Maroto
Spain
5 M. Maroto
B. Diaby
Spain
17 B. Diaby
S. Ruiz Alonso
Substitution
Spain
20 S. Ruiz Alonso
R. Alcaraz Jiménez
Substitution
Spain
4 R. Alcaraz Jiménez
P. Saenz Ezquerra
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra
J. Arnáiz Díaz
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz
J. Pascual Medina
Spain
19 J. Pascual Medina
A. Sola López Ocaña
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Sola López Ocaña

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 02, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de Gran Canaria
Capacity
32392
Attendance
16689
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Diego Fernández Correas
Ricardo Landrove Lago
María Eugenia Gil Soriano
Salvador Lax Franco

Statistics

Possession
LPA
50%
GRA
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
27 Dangerous attacks 28
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 9
4 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 0
53 Ball Safe 61
19 Throwins 22
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
5 Substitutions 5
6 Dribble Attempts 7
9 Goal Kicks 7

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
87 Attacks 71

Possession

59 Long Passes 45
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
393 Passes 399
316 Successful Passes 330
19 Successful Long Passes 16
80 Successful Passes Percentage 83
5 Key Passes 10

Defensive

6 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 8
3 Saves 2
32 Duels Won 32

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 7
11 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

9 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Defender
4
Álex Suárez
Álex Suárez Defender
15
Juanma Herzog
Juanma Herzog
Defender80'
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Defender
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada Defender
12
Enzo Loiodice
Enzo Loiodice Midfielder
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez
Midfielder11'
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Midfielder
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro Midfielder
22
Ale García
Ale García Midfielder
23
Cristian Gutiérrez
Cristian Gutiérrez
Defender80'
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacker
21
Jonathan Viera
Jonathan Viera
Midfielder61'
49
Iker Bravo
Iker Bravo Attacker
10
Jesé
Jesé
Attacker60'
Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Astralaga
Ander Astralaga Goalkeeper
3
Diego Hormigo
Diego Hormigo Defender
5
Manu Lama
Manu Lama Defender
17
Bambo Diaby
Bambo Diaby Defender
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Defender
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz Midfielder
41
Izan González
Izan González
Midfielder64'
20
Sergio Ruiz
Sergio Ruiz Midfielder
40
Baba Diocou
Baba Diocou
Attacker64'
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Midfielder
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros
Midfielder73'
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola Attacker
9
Gonzalo Petit
Gonzalo Petit
Attacker80'
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
8
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Midfielder63'
19
Jorge Pascual
Jorge Pascual Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Cristian Gutiérrez
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Dinko Horkas
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Juanma Herzog → Álex Suárez
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Cristian Gutiérrez → Ale García
8th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Gonzalo Petit → Álex Sola
10th Substitution
73'
Event
Manu Trigueros → Pablo Sáenz
7th Substitution
64'
Event
Izan González → Rubén Alcaraz
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Baba Diocou → Sergio Ruiz
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Pedro Alemañ Serna → José Manuel Arnáiz
4th Substitution
Event
Jonathan Viera → Manu Fuster
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Jesé → Iker Bravo
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Taisei Miyashiro
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
49'
Event
Ale García
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Loïc Williams
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Kirian Rodríguez → Enzo Loiodice
1st Substitution
11'
5'
Event
Var

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Las Palmas exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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