Korona Kielce vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Exbud Arena Sun, 22 Mar - 11:15 AM
Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
3 Winner 0
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 11:15 AM
Round 26 Regular Season
Marcel Pieczek - 22'
Stjepan Davidovic - 24'
Mariusz Stepinski - 44' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Korona Kielce and Arka Gdynia has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. Going into the fixture, Korona Kielce were heavily favored as the stronger side. Pre-match market probabilities gave the home team a 47.6% chance of victory, alongside a 29.8% likelihood of a draw and a 22.7% chance for an away win. Because Korona Kielce failed to secure the full three points, the scoreless draw represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, disappointing the home supporters. On the pitch, Korona Kielce controlled the overall flow of the game, finishing with 54% possession compared to Arka Gdynia's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this contest, meaning it cannot be definitively evaluated whether the final outcome aligned with the underlying quality of scoring opportunities created by either side. Because the favored hosts failed to win, the ultimate result did not align with the pre-match market. Despite the lack of goals, the overall efficiency shift remained squarely in line with baseline projections. Furthermore, discipline was not a factor in the dropped points, as the match featured no red cards to alter the tactical balance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Korona Kielce showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Szwarga
D. Szwarga
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 L
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 61 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 W
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 D
Katowice Rank: 64 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Korona Kielce
47.56%
Draw
29.77%
Away Arka Gdynia
22.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.1
50.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Korona Kielce
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
62.1
50.15
League Position
8
16
Global Rank
422
608

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.00
24.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.24
50.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Korona Kielce +2.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia -2.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Korona Kielce Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home
19 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
9
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
9
Goals
20
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
20
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
S. Rubežić
Serbia
23 S. Rubežić
C. Soteriou
Cyprus
44 C. Soteriou
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
W. Długosz
Poland
71 W. Długosz
T. Svetlin
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
S. Davidović
Substitution
Slovenia
9 S. Davidović
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 (C) D. Błanik
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
D. Węglarz
Poland
77 D. Węglarz
D. Gojny
Poland
94 (C) D. Gojny
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
S. Szota
Substitution
Poland
3 S. Szota
Oskar Kubiak
Substitution
7 Oskar Kubiak
K. Jakubczyk
Poland
35 K. Jakubczyk
A. Sidibe
Substitution
Ivory Coast
8 A. Sidibe
D. Kocyla
Poland
11 D. Kocyla
S. Kerk
Substitution
Germany
37 S. Kerk
V. Gutkovskis
Substitution
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis
P. Szysz
Poland
21 P. Szysz

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 11:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Exbud Arena
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Jarosław Przybył
Maciej Kosarzecki
Sebastian Mucha

Statistics

Possession
Korona Kielce
54%
Arka Gdynia
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
25 Shots 10
40 Dangerous attacks 23
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 10
9 Successful Dribbles 6
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
8 Goal Kicks 12
15 Throwins 17
41 Ball Safe 48
10 Goal Attempts 5
2 Assists 0
1 Penalties 0
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

47 Attacks 39
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 78
54 Long Passes 46
19 Successful Long Passes 13
410 Passes 355
18 Key Passes 6
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
317 Successful Passes 276

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
5 Saves 1
7 Interceptions 7

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 13
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jarosław Przybył

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
7.98
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
6.91
23
Slobodan Rubezic
Slobodan Rubezic Defender
7.09
44
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Konstantinos Sotiriou Defender
7.57
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Midfielder
7.56
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Midfielder
6.98
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson
Midfielder76'
6.52
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
7.49
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
6.82
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik (C) Attacker
8.87
77
Marcin Cebula
Marcin Cebula
Midfielder71'
6.4
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic Attacker
7.08
37
Hubert Zwozny
Hubert Zwozny
Defender84'
6.41
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
7.37
70
Antoñín
Antoñín
Attacker76'
6.52
Referee : Jarosław Przybył

Starting XI ▼

77
Damian Weglarz
Damian Weglarz Goalkeeper
6.02
3
Serafin Szota
Serafin Szota Defender
5.97
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator
Defender60'
6.57
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
6.82
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny (C) Defender
6.68
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Midfielder
6.34
9
Tornike Gaprindashvili
Tornike Gaprindashvili
Midfielder46'
6.76
8
Alassane Sidibe
Alassane Sidibe Midfielder
6.29
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba
Midfielder46'
6.76
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Midfielder
6.59
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk Midfielder
6.48
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
6.56
31
Nazariy Rusyn
Nazariy Rusyn
Attacker46'
6.95
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz Attacker
6.41
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Attacker
6.85
22
Michal Rzuchowski
Michal Rzuchowski
Midfielder80'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hubert Zwozny → Stjepan Davidovic
9th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
Michal Rzuchowski → Sebastian Kerk
8th Substitution
Event
Antoñín → Mariusz Stepinski
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Simon Gustafson → Martin Remacle
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Slobodan Rubezic
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
74'
Event
Tornike Gaprindashvili
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Marcin Cebula → Dawid Blanik
5th Substitution
71'
60'
Event
Dominick Zator → Serafin Szota
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Tornike Gaprindashvili → O. Kubiak
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Aurélien Nguiamba → Alassane Sidibe
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mariusz Stepinski
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
44'
Event
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Penalty awarded
42'
Event
Stjepan Davidovic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
24'
Event
Marcel Pieczek
Header / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Korona Kielce exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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