Kilmarnock vs Dundee Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Kilmarnock KIL
2 – 2
Dundee DUD
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Joe Hugill - 14'
Michael Schjönning-Larsen - 33'
Goal
|
Goal
Simon Murray - 24'
Scott Wright - 81'

CONTEXT

The match between Kilmarnock and Dundee is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. Kilmarnock led 2-1 at half-time but were unable to hold on as Dundee fought back to claim a point in an evenly balanced contest. Pre-match expectations positioned Dundee as the stronger side, yet the result brought a moderate deviation centered on Dundee's output. Possession was almost identical, with Kilmarnock at 51 percent and Dundee at 49 percent. No expected goals data is available, so alignment on that measure cannot be assessed, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with projections and the outcome ultimately proved consistent with the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown to either team, so the result was shaped purely by on-field play rather than any disciplinary events. The second-half adjustments allowed Dundee to recover from their half-time deficit, producing a final score that reflected the closely matched nature of the teams across the full 90 minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Hardie
R. Hardie
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
J. McCunnie
J. McCunnie
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
G. Stewart
G. Stewart
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
G. Crawford
G. Crawford
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
0.68
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: L
Livingston Rank: W
Hearts Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: L
Hearts Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: D
Motherwell Rank: W
Hibernian Rank: D
Aberdeen Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 16 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
4.91%
Draw
91.5%
Away Dundee
3.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.7
24.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Power Score
18.7
24.81
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Dundee

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.41
18.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.67
29.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kilmarnock +0.89 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee -0.89 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Dundee
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kilmarnock Dundee
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Dundee
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Dundee
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kilmarnock
vs
Dundee
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kilmarnock Dundee
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kilmarnock 0.33
Dundee 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Dundee
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kilmarnock 0.09
Dundee 0.05
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KIL had peak pressure around 55'.
  • KIL started the game with stronger pressure.
KIL Pressure DUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KIL reached the top pressure at 55' (72.35).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
31 matches
Dundee DUD Away
Match Record
8
Wins
7
16
Draws
16
7
Losses
8
Goals
41
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
41
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
K. Roos
Netherlands
13 K. Roos
J. Brandon
Scotland
2 J. Brandon
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
R. Deas
Scotland
6 R. Deas
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Kiltie
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
T. Lowery
Substitution
England
18 T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
Substitution
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
F. Curtis
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
B. Anderson
Substitution
Scotland
19 B. Anderson
J. Hugill
England
44 J. Hugill
J. McCracken
Scotland
1 J. McCracken
D. Wright
England
7 D. Wright
B. Koumetio
France
5 B. Koumetio
L. Graham
Scotland
22 L. Graham
B. Halliday
Substitution
England
16 B. Halliday
E. Hamilton
Scotland
48 E. Hamilton
T. Yogane
Substitution
England
17 T. Yogane
J. Cotterill
Wales
24 J. Cotterill
Y. Dhanda
Substitution
England
21 Y. Dhanda
C. Congreve
Substitution
Wales
20 C. Congreve
S. Murray
Substitution
Scotland
15 S. Murray

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Rugby Park
Capacity
18128
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ross Hardie
Jamie McCunnie
Graeme Stewart
Gordon Crawford

Statistics

Possession
KIL
52%
DUD
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 4
40 Dangerous attacks 23
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 23
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Successful Headers 9
21 Throwins 23
8 Dribble Attempts 7
0 Assists 2
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
3 Successful Dribbles 2
5 Goal Kicks 6
1 Substitutions 4
63 Ball Safe 70
1 Injuries 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

92 Attacks 80
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 76
74 Long Passes 66
387 Passes 372
32 Successful Long Passes 29
297 Successful Passes 283
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
8 Key Passes 5

Defensive

4 Interceptions 5
15 Tackles 17
4 Saves 1

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 15
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

24 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

13
Kelle Roos
Kelle Roos Goalkeeper
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Defender
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson
Defender72'
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
12
David Watson
David Watson
Midfielder86'
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
8
Brad Joseph Lyons
Brad Joseph Lyons
Midfielder86'
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Attacker
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie
Midfielder77'
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

1
Jon McCracken
Jon McCracken Goalkeeper
5
Billy Koumetio
Billy Koumetio Defender
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Defender
16
Brad Halliday
Brad Halliday Defender
12
Imari Samuels
Imari Samuels
Defender46'
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Defender
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Midfielder
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly
Attacker70'
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley
Attacker58'
21
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Midfielder
25
Scott Wright
Scott Wright
Attacker58'
24
Joel Cotterill
Joel Cotterill Midfielder
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Midfielder
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray Attacker
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay
Attacker59'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+13'
Event
Joe Westley
GoalkeeperSave
90+11'
Event
Scott Wright
Penalty confirmed
Event
Jamie Brandon
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
George Stanger
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Brad Joseph Lyons → Aaron Tshibola
8th Substitution
86'
Event
David Watson → Tom Lowery
9th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Scott Wright
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Rory McKenzie → Bruce Anderson
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Aaron Tshibola
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Dominic Thompson → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
6th Substitution
72'
70'
Event
Charlie Reilly → Tony Yogane
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Ashley Hay → Simon Murray
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Joe Westley → Cameron Congreve
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Scott Wright → Yan Dhanda
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Ethan Hamilton
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Imari Samuels → Brad Halliday
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Robbie Deas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
33'
29'
Event
Simon Murray
Goal disallowed
24'
Event
Simon Murray
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Joe Hugill
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'
8'
Event
Brad Halliday
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jamie Brandon of Kilmarnock receives a yellow card in the 94th minute.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joe Westley of Dundee takes a penalty at the 103rd minute, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joe Westley from Dundee has his penalty saved at the 103rd minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
David Watson is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 86th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Brad Lyons is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 86th minute.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Scott Wright scores for Dundee in the 81st minute.
77
Substitution Substitution
Rory McKenzie is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 77th minute.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aaron Tshibola from Kilmarnock receives a yellow card in the 75th minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Dominic Thompson is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 72nd minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Charlie Reilly is substituted for Dundee in the 70th minute.
59
Substitution Substitution
Ashley Hay is substituted for Dundee in the 59th minute.
58
Substitution Substitution
Scott Wright is substituted for Dundee in the 58th minute.
58
Substitution Substitution
Joe Westley is substituted for Dundee in the 58th minute.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Hamilton of Dundee receives a yellow card in the 55th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Imari Samuels is substituted for Dundee in the 45th minute.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robbie Deas from Kilmarnock receives a yellow card in the 39th minute.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Michael Schjonning-Larsen - Kilmarnock - Goal at 33'
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Simon Murray scores for Dundee in the 24th minute.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Joe Hugill scores for Kilmarnock at the 14th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dundee exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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