Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı
Mon, 9 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kayserispor
KAY
1
3
3
Trabzonspor
TRA
Full Time
Mon, 9 Mar
5:00 PM
German Onugkha - 83'
|
Paul Onuachu - 45+2', 45+7' (P)
Bilal Bayazıt - 53' (Own Goal)
Dorukhan Toköz 8'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
The match between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor has finished, ending in a 3-1 victory for the visiting side. Trabzonspor established their dominance early, taking a 2-0 lead into halftime. The final outcome aligned perfectly with pre-match market expectations, which favored Trabzonspor with a 46.8% win probability compared to Kayserispor's 27.3% and a 25.9% chance of a draw. The result generated a significant performance deviation favoring Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor dictated the tempo of the contest, commanding 68% of the possession while restricting the home side to just 32%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it could not be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. The match's dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card shown to Kayserispor. This sending-off created a noticeable red card distortion that altered the flow of the game in the second half. Despite this disciplinary disruption, the overall efficiency shift remained strictly in line with expectations, allowing the stronger Trabzonspor squad to comfortably secure the away win.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Trabzonspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Kısal
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
A. Demirbaş
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
C. Aydın
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
M. Tuğral
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
J. Storbæk
VS
F. Tekke
0.86
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.05
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği
Rank:
D
Antalyaspor
Rank:
W
Göztepe
Rank:
D
Kocaelispor
Rank:
L
Galatasaray
Rank:
L
İstanbul Başakşehir
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük
Rank:
W
Gaziantep F.K.
Rank:
W
Fenerbahçe
Rank:
L
Samsunspor
Rank:
W
Antalyaspor
Rank:
D
Kasımpaşa
Rank:
W
8
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 20
20
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Kayserispor
27.26%
Draw
25.94%
Trabzonspor
46.8%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
26.67
72
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
Power Score
26.67
72
League Position
17
3
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Kayserispor
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Trabzonspor
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Kayserispor Trabzonspor
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Kayserispor
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Trabzonspor
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Kayserispor
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Trabzonspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.22
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Kayserispor
+1.99
Efficiency Index
vs
Trabzonspor
-1.99
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Kayserispor
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Trabzonspor
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Kayserispor
KAY
Home
11
matches
Trabzonspor
TRA
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
13
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:06:53+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı
Capacity
32864
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mehmet Kısal
Ayberk Demirbaş
C. Aydın
Mehmet Emin Tuğral
Statistics
Possession
KAY
38%
TRA
62%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
3
3
Big Chances Created
4
14
Shots
18
34
Dangerous attacks
51
32
Possession
68
6
Corners
8
9
Free kicks
7
4
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
12
Throwins
11
8
Successful Dribbles
6
7
Goal Kicks
9
6
Successful Headers
15
15
Dribble Attempts
12
53
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
1
Hit Woodwork
1
1
Assists
1
0
Penalties
1
73
Ball Safe
101
1
Injuries
1
11
Goal Attempts
9
5
Substitutions
5
Attacking
76
Attacks
109
2
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
12
Key Passes
15
84
Successful Passes Percentage
93
38
Successful Long Passes
27
244
Successful Passes
591
289
Passes
633
58
Long Passes
32
66
Successful Long Passes Percentage
84
Defensive
5
Interceptions
3
12
Tackles
10
3
Saves
5
Build-up
3
Accurate Crosses
7
18
Total Crosses
22
Discipline
6
Fouls
8
2
Offsides
3
Events
2ND-HALF
Joshua Brenet
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Bilal Bayazıt
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
Burak Kapacak → Ramazan Civelek
9th Substitution
90+1'
João Mendes → Miguel Cardoso
10th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Chibuike Nwaiwu → Ernest Muci
8th Substitution
89'
Salih Malkoçoğlu → Christ Inao Oulaï
7th Substitution
German Onugkha
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
76'
Okay Yokuşlu → Wagner Pina
6th Substitution
76'
Umut Nayir → Felipe Augusto
5th Substitution
Carlos Mané → Denis Makarov
3rd Substitution
74'
Görkem Sağlam → Furkan Soyalp
4th Substitution
74'
65'
Anthony Nwakaeme → Oleksandr Zubkov
2nd Substitution
German Onugkha → Fedor Chalov
1st Substitution
62'
53'
Bilal Bayazıt
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
1ST-HALF
45+7'
Paul Onuachu
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+2'
Paul Onuachu
Header / 1st Goal
44'
Felipe Augusto
Penalty cancelled
Görkem Sağlam
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
20'
Ramazan Civelek
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
19'
Dorukhan Toköz
Foul / 1st Redcard
8'
Dorukhan Toköz
Card adjusted
7'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Trabzonspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.