Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Sat, 4 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
2 Winner 0
Kayserispor KAY
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Adrian Benedyczak - 10'
Andreas Gianniotis - 66'
Goal
|
Cafú 90' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Kasımpaşa securing a 2-0 victory over Kayserispor after taking a 1-0 lead into half-time. The result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, as Kasımpaşa entered the fixture as the favorites with a 43.1% win probability. Kayserispor held a 28.9% chance of an away win, while a draw sat at 28%. Ultimately, the hosts produced a significant performance deviation, outperforming baseline expectations by 56.9%. Despite the comfortable scoreline, the flow of the game was heavily influenced by a major disciplinary event. Kasımpaşa went down to ten men after receiving a red card, which caused a clear red card distortion in the second half. This disadvantage forced the home side to concede control of the ball, resulting in Kayserispor dominating with 62% possession compared to Kasımpaşa's 38%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, despite playing with a numerical disadvantage, Kasımpaşa’s overall finishing efficiency shift remained entirely in line with standard expectations, allowing them to confidently close out the match and secure the victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kasımpaşa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Sesigüzel
C. Sesigüzel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
B. Gölen
B. Gölen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
?. Güldibi
?. Güldibi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Türkmen
M. Türkmen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
VS
Kayserispor E. Moe
E. Moe
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 64 W
Konyaspor Rank: 68 D
Rizespor Rank: 68 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 D
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 W
Samsunspor Rank: 69 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 64 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Göztepe Rank: 73 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 8 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kasımpaşa
43.13%
Draw
28%
Away Kayserispor
28.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kasımpaşa
-0.83%
Draw
-0.02%
Kayserispor
+0.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.88
62.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kasımpaşa
Kayserispor
Power Score
64.88
62.7
League Position
13
16
Global Rank
317
383

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kasımpaşa Kayserispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.21
9.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.68
24.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kasımpaşa +1.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Kayserispor -1.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kasımpaşa
Kayserispor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kayserispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kasımpaşa Kayserispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Kayserispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kasımpaşa
Kayserispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kasımpaşa
vs
Kayserispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kasımpaşa Kayserispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kasımpaşa 0.33
Kayserispor 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Kayserispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Kayserispor 0.08
Kasımpaşa
Kayserispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Home
31 matches
Kayserispor KAY Away
Match Record
6
Wins
17
8
Draws
8
17
Losses
6
Goals
37
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
37
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:01:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Gianniotis
Greece
1 A. Gianniotis
C. Winck Neto
Brazil
2 C. Winck Neto
R. Nascimiento Franca
Brazil
50 R. Nascimiento Franca
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
K. Çörekçi
Substitution
Turkey
22 K. Çörekçi
C. Ribeiro Dias
Portugal
8 C. Ribeiro Dias
A. Baldursson
Iceland
16 A. Baldursson
İ. Kahveci
Turkey
71 İ. Kahveci
F. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
M. Ben Ouannes
Tunisia
12 M. Ben Ouannes
A. Benedyczak
Substitution
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak
B. Bayazit
Netherlands
25 B. Bayazit
R. Civelek
Substitution
Turkey
28 R. Civelek
S. Denswil
Suriname
4 S. Denswil
S. Güler
Germany
6 S. Güler
J. Katongo
Substitution
England
2 J. Katongo
Y. Aït Bennasser
Morocco
15 Y. Aït Bennasser
L. Bénes
Substitution
Slovakia
8 L. Bénes
M. Nunes Cardoso
Portugal
7 M. Nunes Cardoso
F. Chalov
Substitution
Russia
63 F. Chalov
D. Makarov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Makarov
G. Onugkha
Russia
9 G. Onugkha

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Capacity
14234
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ceyhun Sesigüzel
Bilal Gölen
?. Güldibi
Mehmet Türkmen

Statistics

Possession
Kasımpaşa
42%
KAY
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
7 Shots 2
24 Dangerous attacks 40
38 Possession 62
1 Corners 10
14 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 8
15 Throwins 23
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
7 Successful Dribbles 5
12 Dribble Attempts 9
2 Assists 0
9 Successful Headers 13
3 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Attempts 4
1 Injuries 2
110 Ball Safe 128

Attacking

82 Attacks 100

Possession

229 Successful Passes 417
310 Passes 501
73 Long Passes 68
74 Successful Passes Percentage 83
6 Key Passes 3
28 Successful Long Passes 36
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

8 Interceptions 6
44 Duels Won 45
1 Saves 1
15 Tackles 12

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 29
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

18 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Mehmet Türkmen

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Gianniotis
Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper
2
Cláudio Winck
Cláudio Winck Defender
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
22
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi Defender
20
Nicholas Opoku
Nicholas Opoku
Defender80'
50
Rodrigo Becão
Rodrigo Becão Defender
8
Cafú
Cafú Midfielder
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes Midfielder
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Midfielder
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay
Midfielder90+1'
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
23
Cenk Tosun
Cenk Tosun
Attacker85'
Referee : Mehmet Türkmen

Starting XI ▼

25
Bilal Bayazıt
Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper
2
J. Katongo
J. Katongo Defender
10
João Mendes
João Mendes
Midfielder60'
4
Stefano Denswil
Stefano Denswil Defender
6
Semih Güler
Semih Güler Defender
28
Ramazan Civelek
Ramazan Civelek Defender
22
Indrit Tuci
Indrit Tuci
Attacker77'
7
Miguel Cardoso
Miguel Cardoso Midfielder
8
László Bénes
László Bénes Midfielder
30
Joshua Brenet
Joshua Brenet
Defender60'
15
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder
18
Denis Makarov
Denis Makarov Midfielder
20
Carlos Mané
Carlos Mané
Midfielder70'
63
Fedor Chalov
Fedor Chalov Midfielder
33
Furkan Soyalp
Furkan Soyalp
Midfielder60'
9
German Onugkha
German Onugkha Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kerem Demirbay → Fousseni Diabaté
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Cafú
Foul / 1st Redcard
90'
Event
Cafú
Card adjusted
89'
Event
Cenk Tosun → Adrian Benedyczak
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Nicholas Opoku → Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
6th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Indrit Tuci → Ramazan Civelek
5th Substitution
Event
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
73'
Event
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Ramazan Civelek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
Event
Carlos Mané → Denis Makarov
4th Substitution
Event
Andreas Gianniotis
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
60'
Event
Furkan Soyalp → Fedor Chalov
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Joshua Brenet → László Bénes
1st Substitution
60'
Event
João Mendes → J. Katongo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
10'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Kasımpaşa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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