Juventus vs Sassuolo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Juventus Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 7:45 PM
Serie A
Juventus JUV
1 – 1
Sassuolo SAS
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 7:45 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Kenan Yıldız - 14'
Goal
|
Goal
Andrea Pinamonti - 52'

CONTEXT

The match between Juventus and Sassuolo has finished in a 1-1 draw. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating a Juventus side that entered as heavy favorites with a 73.4% implied probability of winning. A draw carried just a 16.5% likelihood, while an away win sat at 10.2%, making this final outcome distinctly unaligned with the pre-match market. Juventus took a 1-0 lead into halftime but failed to secure the victory. The hosts dominated the overall flow of play, controlling 66% of the possession compared to Sassuolo's 34%. Juventus also generated the vast majority of high-quality attacking chances, finishing the match with 2.32 expected goals (xG) against a meager 0.76 xG for the visitors. Because of this heavy xG advantage for the home team, the final draw was not consistent with the underlying expected goals data. Despite the discrepancy on the scoreboard, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with statistical models. Furthermore, the match concluded without any red cards for either side, confirming that unexpected disciplinary events did not artificially shape this surprising final scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juventus showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Juventus L. Spalletti
L. Spalletti
VS
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Napoli Rank: 87 W
Cagliari Rank: 70 L
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
Sassuolo Rank: 74 W
Lecce Rank: 69 D
Pisa Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 86 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Udinese Rank: 74 W
Inter Rank: 90 L
Pisa Rank: 65 W
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juventus
73.37%
Draw
16.46%
Away Sassuolo
10.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.51
61.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juventus
Sassuolo
Power Score
84.51
61.96
League Position
5
10
Global Rank
37
119

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juventus — Opponent-weighted form score
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juventus Sassuolo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juventus

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juventus ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.32
25.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.44
34.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juventus +0.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Sassuolo -0.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Sassuolo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juventus
vs
Sassuolo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juventus Sassuolo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juventus Sassuolo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Juventus
Sassuolo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juventus JUV Home
24 matches
Sassuolo SAS Away
Match Record
17
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
17
Goals
57
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
57
+35
Goal Difference
-35
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Perin
Italy
1 M. Perin
P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
France
15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
Brazil
3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
L. Kelly
Substitution
England
6 L. Kelly
A. Cambiaso
Substitution
Italy
27 A. Cambiaso
M. Locatelli
Italy
5 (C) M. Locatelli
F. Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
7 F. Conceição
W. McKennie
United States
22 W. McKennie
K. Thuram-Ulien
Substitution
France
19 K. Thuram-Ulien
K. Yildiz
Germany
10 K. Yildiz
J. Boga
Substitution
Ivory Coast
13 J. Boga
A. Murić
Kosovo
49 A. Murić
U. Garcia Lopes
Switzerland
23 U. Garcia Lopes
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
80 T. Muharemovic
J. Idzes
Netherlands
21 J. Idzes
S. Walukiewicz
Poland
6 S. Walukiewicz
D. Bakola
Substitution
50 D. Bakola
I. Koné
Canada
90 I. Koné
A. Vranckx
Substitution
Belgium
40 A. Vranckx
D. Berardi
Substitution
Italy
10 (C) D. Berardi
A. Pinamonti
Substitution
Italy
99 A. Pinamonti
C. Volpato
Substitution
Italy
7 C. Volpato

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Juventus Stadium
Capacity
41507
Attendance
39699
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matteo Marchetti
Alessandro Costanzo
Andrea Bianchini
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Statistics

Possession
JUV
62%
SAS
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 1
93 Dangerous attacks 33
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 4
6 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
25 Throwins 10
22 Dribble Attempts 17
77 Ball Safe 75
8 Successful Headers 10
9 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Goal Kicks 10
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
0 Injuries 1
13 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
121 Attacks 74

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 22
15 Key Passes 7
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
494 Successful Passes 239
570 Passes 300
44 Long Passes 42
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

17 Tackles 15
4 Interceptions 10
0 Saves 7

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 4
25 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

1
Mattia Perin
Mattia Perin Goalkeeper
6.3
3
Bremer
Bremer Defender
6.25
6
Lloyd Kelly
Lloyd Kelly Defender
6.98
9
Dušan Vlahović
Dušan Vlahović
Attacker79'
6.5
15
Pierre Kalulu
Pierre Kalulu Defender
7.16
27
Andrea Cambiaso
Andrea Cambiaso Defender
6.07
21
Fabio Miretti
Fabio Miretti
Midfielder62'
6.82
5
Manuel Locatelli
Manuel Locatelli (C) Midfielder
7.67
7
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição Midfielder
7.51
11
Edon Zhegrova
Edon Zhegrova
Attacker88'
10
Kenan Yıldız
Kenan Yıldız Midfielder
7.6
19
Khéphren Thuram
Khéphren Thuram Midfielder
7.06
8
Teun Koopmeiners
Teun Koopmeiners
Midfielder62'
6.65
22
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
6.88
13
Jérémie Boga
Jérémie Boga Attacker
7.15
14
Arkadiusz Milik
Arkadiusz Milik
Attacker79'
6.3
Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

49
Arijanet Murić
Arijanet Murić Goalkeeper
8.74
6
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Sebastian Walukiewicz Defender
6.81
21
Jay Idzes
Jay Idzes Defender
6.68
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia Defender
6.42
80
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
7.64
10
Domenico Berardi
Domenico Berardi (C) Midfielder
7.03
3
Josh Doig
Josh Doig
Defender90+2'
40
Aster Vranckx
Aster Vranckx Midfielder
6.54
44
Edoardo Iannoni
Edoardo Iannoni
Midfielder79'
6.32
50
Darryl Bakola
Darryl Bakola Midfielder
6.93
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté
Attacker69'
6.56
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
6.81
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato Attacker
6.77
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani
Midfielder69'
6.21
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti Attacker
6.89
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola
Attacker80'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Luca Lipani
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Josh Doig → Domenico Berardi
10th Substitution
Event
Edon Zhegrova → Francisco Conceição
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Manuel Locatelli
GoalkeeperSave
87'
Event
Dušan Vlahović
Penalty awarded
85'
80'
Event
M'Bala Nzola → Andrea Pinamonti
8th Substitution
Event
Arkadiusz Milik → Jérémie Boga
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Dušan Vlahović → Lloyd Kelly
7th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Edoardo Iannoni → Aster Vranckx
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Ulisses Garcia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Luca Lipani → Cristian Volpato
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Armand Laurienté → Darryl Bakola
3rd Substitution
Event
Bremer
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
64'
Event
Fabio Miretti → Andrea Cambiaso
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Teun Koopmeiners → Khéphren Thuram
1st Substitution
62'
52'
Event
Andrea Pinamonti
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Kenan Yıldız
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Edon Zhegrova of Juventus has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a deflection off Manuel Locatelli.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after Teun Koopmeiners allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kenan Yildiz of Juventus attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Pierre Kalulu, who delivered a cross.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Lipani from Sassuolo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Luca Lipani from Sassuolo committed a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Josh Doig replaces Domenico Berardi.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Arkadiusz Milik of Juventus attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but the shot is expertly stopped.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a foul by Teun Koopmeiners.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Juventus and Sassuolo.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after Tarik Muharemovic allowed the ball to go out of play.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after Jay Idzes allowed the ball to go out of play.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Edon Zhegrova comes on to replace Francisco Conceição.
87
Corner Corner
Penalty attempt thwarted. Manuel Locatelli of Juventus took a right-footed shot, but it was brilliantly stopped in the right corner by Arijanet Muric of Sassuolo.
85
Update Update
Jay Idzes of Sassuolo has given away a penalty due to a handball inside the box.
85
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Juventus.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
82
Update Update
Match on hold - Juventus under VAR review.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: M'Bala Nzola comes on to replace Andrea Pinamonti.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Edoardo Iannoni comes on to replace Aster Vranckx due to an injury.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Dusan Vlahovic is coming off, and Lloyd Kelly is taking his place.
79
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Dusan Vlahovic is coming off, and Lloyd Kelly is taking his place.
78
Update Update
Match delay due to an injury to Aster Vranckx from Sassuolo.
74
Update Update
Francisco Conceição of Juventus earned a free kick on the right flank.
74
Update Update
Ulisses Garcia from Sassuolo committed a foul.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ulisses Garcia of Sassuolo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
73
Update Update
Another offensive push from Juventus. Jérémie Boga attempts a header from within the six-yard box on the left side, but it's successfully stopped.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Armand Laurienté comes on to replace Darryl Bakola.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Luca Lipani replaces Cristian Volpato.
69
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Manuel Locatelli of Juventus takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Francisco Conceição.
67
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jérémie Boga from Juventus attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Kenan Yildiz.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Teun Koopmeiners from Juventus fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after a deflection off Tarik Muharemovic.
65
Update Update
Domenico Berardi from Sassuolo committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Lloyd Kelly of Juventus has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bremer from Juventus has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
64
Update Update
Darryl Bakola from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jérémie Boga from Juventus takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. Arijanet Muric from Sassuolo makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Weston McKennie.
64
Update Update
Bremer from Juventus committed a foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Teun Koopmeiners comes on to replace Khéphren Thuram.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Fabio Miretti comes on to replace Andrea Cambiaso.
61
Update Update
Bremer commits a foul against Juventus.
61
Update Update
Andrea Pinamonti from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Cristian Volpato from Sassuolo takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Sebastian Walukiewicz.
58
Update Update
Jérémie Boga commits a handball for Juventus.
55
Update Update
Francisco Conceição of Juventus commits a handball.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Juventus and Sassuolo. Andrea Pinamonti found the net for Sassuolo with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner. The assist came from Domenico Berardi, who delivered a great cross.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Juventus leading Sassuolo 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Juventus leading Sassuolo 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Francisco Conceição of Juventus fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Pierre Kalulu of Juventus attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
37
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Manuel Locatelli from Juventus committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Lloyd Kelly from Juventus has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Aster Vranckx committed a foul against a player from Sassuolo.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after a play that resulted in a deflection off Sebastian Walukiewicz.
31
Update Update
Kenan Yildiz from Juventus earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
31
Update Update
Domenico Berardi from Sassuolo committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Kenan Yildiz from Juventus has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Aster Vranckx from Sassuolo committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Darryl Bakola from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Francisco Conceição from Juventus committed a foul.
28
Update Update
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Darryl Bakola from Sassuolo takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ismaël Koné.
26
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Andrea Pinamonti from Sassuolo had a header from inside the six-yard box on the left side, just inches away from finding the net. The assist came from Jay Idzes following a corner kick.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a foul by Kenan Yildiz.
26
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Jay Idzes from Sassuolo attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The chance was set up by Domenico Berardi, who delivered a cross following a corner.
25
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Lloyd Kelly of Juventus attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross came from Manuel Locatelli following a corner kick.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after a play that resulted in Domenico Berardi giving up possession.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after a save by Arijanet Muric.
19
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Kenan Yildiz from Juventus takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Arijanet Muric of Sassuolo makes a great save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal.
18
Update Update
Offside call against Juventus. Francisco Conceição is caught in an offside position.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after a deflection off Arijanet Muric.
17
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Khéphren Thuram from Juventus takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's expertly saved in the top left corner by Arijanet Muric of Sassuolo. The assist came from Manuel Locatelli.
16
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Francisco Conceição of Juventus takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
14
Update Update
A header attempt from Tarik Muharemovic of Sassuolo is deflected away. The assist came from Andrea Pinamonti, who also delivered a header from the center of the box.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Juventus takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Sassuolo. Kenan Yildiz scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a deflection off Manuel Locatelli.
8
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Francisco Conceição of Juventus fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Weston McKennie, who set him up with a header.
6
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
6
Update Update
Weston McKennie of Juventus committed a foul.
3
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Manuel Locatelli of Juventus heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Arijanet Muric of Sassuolo makes a fantastic save, pushing it away to the top right corner. The assist came from Jérémie Boga, who delivered a precise cross.
3
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Weston McKennie of Juventus attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus, following a save by Arijanet Muric.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Juventus after Aster Vranckx allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Juventus exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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