Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 21 Mar - 7:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
1 Winner 2
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 7:15 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Samed Bazdar - 11'
Goal
|
Goal
Deni Jurić - 20', 33'

CONTEXT

The match between Jagiellonia Białystok and Wisła Płock has finished, with the teams playing out a 0-0 draw at full time. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the designated stronger side, Jagiellonia Białystok. Before kickoff, the market heavily favored the hosts with a 58.8% probability of victory, while a draw sat at just 24.2% and an away win at 17%. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market predictions. Jagiellonia Białystok entirely dominated the flow of the game, controlling a massive 74% of the possession compared to a mere 26% for Wisła Płock. However, expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined whether the scoreless draw was consistent with the actual quality of chances created by either side. Both teams finished with 11 men as there were no red cards issued to impact the tactical dynamics of the match. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift was deemed to be in line with standard performance metrics. Ultimately, the significant market deviation highlights a resilient defensive display from the visitors to secure an unexpected point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
VS
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 59 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 64 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 62 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 61 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 54 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 64 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 59 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jagiellonia Białystok
58.82%
Draw
24.15%
Away Wisła Płock
17.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.09
51.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok
Wisła Płock
Power Score
64.09
51.12
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
356
570

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Wisła Płock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.61
27.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.31
40.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok +1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Wisła Płock -1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Wisła Płock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Wisła Płock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Wisła Płock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Wisła Płock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
16 matches
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Away
Match Record
6
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
24
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
Substitution
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
A. Pelmard
Substitution
France
70 A. Pelmard
B. Wdowik
Poland
27 B. Wdowik
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 (C) T. Romanczuk
B. Mazurek
Poland
86 B. Mazurek
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
J. Imaz Ballesté
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
M. Leiva Esquivel
Substitution
Spain
19 M. Leiva Esquivel
S. Baždar
Substitution
Serbia
14 S. Baždar
R. Leszczynski
Poland
12 R. Leszczynski
Q. Lecoeuche
France
13 Q. Lecoeuche
M. Kamiński
Poland
35 (C) M. Kamiński
M. Haglind-Sangré
Sweden
4 M. Haglind-Sangré
D. Gallapeni
Substitution
Kosovo
19 D. Gallapeni
W. Nowak
Poland
30 W. Nowak
K. Savvidis
Substitution
Greece
88 K. Savvidis
D. Kun
Poland
14 D. Kun
Ž. Rogelj
Slovenia
21 Ž. Rogelj
S. Hamulic
Substitution
Netherlands
77 S. Hamulic
D. Jurić
Australia
99 D. Jurić

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
22372
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Piotr Lasyk
Adam Kupsik
Damian Rokosz
Karol Wójcik

Statistics

Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
68%
Wisła Płock
32%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 4
101 Dangerous attacks 22
74 Possession 26
8 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Goal Kicks 12
28 Throwins 13
14 Successful Dribbles 6
2 Hit Woodwork 1
72 Ball Safe 90
15 Goal Attempts 5
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 2
23 Dribble Attempts 11
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55

Attacking

118 Attacks 70
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

661 Passes 241
89 Successful Passes Percentage 66
15 Key Passes 5
14 Successful Long Passes 21
21 Long Passes 60
585 Successful Passes 160
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

1 Saves 7
9 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 9

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 1
53 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

6 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
6.44
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
7.54
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.55
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt
Midfielder65'
6.52
27
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Bartlomiej Wdowik Defender
7.19
70
Andy Pelmard
Andy Pelmard Defender
6.19
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia
Defender46'
7.2
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk (C) Midfielder
7.13
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Midfielder
7.5
80
Zachary Zalewski
Zachary Zalewski
Midfielder78'
6.97
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
7.13
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel Midfielder
6.49
8
Dawid Drachal
Dawid Drachal
Midfielder65'
6.93
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder
7.45
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar Attacker
6.73
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu
Attacker65'
6.44
Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Leszczynski
Rafal Leszczynski Goalkeeper
7.75
4
Marcus Haglind-Sangré
Marcus Haglind-Sangré Defender
6.52
13
Quentin Lecoeuche
Quentin Lecoeuche Defender
6.74
35
Marcin Kaminski
Marcin Kaminski (C) Defender
6.95
14
Dominik Kun
Dominik Kun Midfielder
6.2
19
Dion Gallapeni
Dion Gallapeni Midfielder
7.35
8
Dani Pacheco
Dani Pacheco
Midfielder70'
6.65
21
Zan Rogelj
Zan Rogelj Midfielder
6.81
30
Wiktor Nowak
Wiktor Nowak Midfielder
6.79
88
Kyriakos Savvidis
Kyriakos Savvidis Midfielder
6.87
16
Fabian Hiszpanski
Fabian Hiszpanski
Midfielder87'
77
Said Hamulic
Said Hamulic Attacker
6.87
6
Krystian Pomorski
Krystian Pomorski
Midfielder76'
6.44
99
Deni Jurić
Deni Jurić Attacker
2
8.7

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Dani Pacheco
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Fabian Hiszpanski → Kyriakos Savvidis
8th Substitution
Event
Zachary Zalewski → Álex Pozo
7th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Krystian Pomorski → Said Hamulic
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Dani Pacheco → Dion Gallapeni
5th Substitution
Event
Dawid Drachal → Matías Nahuel
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Afimico Pululu → Samed Bazdar
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Kajetan Szmyt → Norbert Wojtuszek
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Guilherme Montóia → Andy Pelmard
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Deni Jurić
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
20'
Event
Deni Jurić
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Samed Bazdar
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
11'
7'
Event
Dion Gallapeni
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Jagiellonia Białystok exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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