Istra 1961 vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Fri, 20 Mar - 5:00 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
2 Winner 1
Varaždin Varaždin
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 5:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Marcel Heister - 77'
Josip Radosevic - 81'
Goal
|
Goal
Aleksa Latkovic - 11'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Istra 1961 2–0 Varaždin. The result saw Istra 1961 take the points. Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 72 W
Osijek Rank: 61 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 L
Gorica Rank: 63 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 L
Osijek Rank: 63 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 12 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
35.67%
Draw
31.29%
Away Varaždin
33.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.74
64.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Varaždin
Power Score
65.74
64.03
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
307
357

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.19
34.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.15
28.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 -0.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin +0.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
32 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
12
Draws
12
10
Losses
10
Goals
32
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
32
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:20:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
A. Kadušić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
M. Nasraoui
Tunisia
3 M. Nasraoui
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
M. Heister
Germany
26 M. Heister
L. Štulac
Substitution
Slovenia
23 L. Štulac
J. Radošević
Croatia
5 (C) J. Radošević
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Lončar
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
S. Goričan
Substitution
Croatia
11 S. Goričan
S. Prevljak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 (C) O. Zelenika
G. Sikošek
Substitution
Slovenia
20 G. Sikošek
L. Škaričić
Croatia
4 L. Škaričić
R. Punčec
Substitution
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
T. Duvnjak
Croatia
8 T. Duvnjak
I. Canjuga
Substitution
Croatia
28 I. Canjuga
Iuri Tavares
Substitution
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
L. Mamić
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
M. Vuk
Croatia
7 M. Vuk
A. Latković
Substitution
Montenegro
10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 20, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity
9800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Ante Čulina
Anto Marić
Vinko Podrug
Ivana Martinčić

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
47%
Varaždin
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 6
65 Dangerous attacks 62
47 Possession 53
4 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
26 Throwins 28
11 Goal Kicks 3
7 Dribble Attempts 16
0 Assists 1
4 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

116 Attacks 123
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 77
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
370 Passes 424
262 Successful Passes 326
6 Key Passes 12
18 Successful Long Passes 30
66 Long Passes 61

Defensive

12 Interceptions 4
16 Tackles 9
3 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
24 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

9 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.78
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Defender
7.15
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
7.12
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
6.91
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Defender
7.25
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic (C) Midfielder
7.01
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
6.44
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder46'
6.94
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican Midfielder
6.6
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic
Attacker46'
7.05
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
6.95
18
Israel Isaac Ayuma
Israel Isaac Ayuma
Midfielder81'
6.43
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Midfielder
7.01
29
Allen Obando
Allen Obando
Attacker70'
6.4
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
7.02
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba
Defender87'
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika (C) Goalkeeper
6.59
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Defender
6.72
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
6.25
18
Paizinho
Paizinho
Attacker84'
6.6
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Defender
6.94
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski
Defender63'
6.02
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
6.7
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.75
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
6.46
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.26
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Midfielder
6.66
12
Petar Bockaj
Petar Bockaj
Defender84'
6.64
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
6.67
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic
Defender46'
6.26
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
8.2
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina
Midfielder70'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Filip Taraba → Smail Prevljak
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Petar Bockaj → Ivan Canjuga
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Paizinho → Roberto Puncec
9th Substitution
Event
Josip Radosevic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Event
Israel Isaac Ayuma → Emil Frederiksen
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Marcel Heister
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
Allen Obando → Leo Stulac
6th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Mario Marina → Aleksa Latkovic
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Mario Mladenovski → Gregor Sikosek
4th Substitution
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Stjepan Loncar
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Vinko Rozic → Silvio Gorican
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Antonio Borsic → Iuri Tavares
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Josip Radosevic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
25'
Event
Ivan Canjuga
Goal cancelled
11'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Istra 1961 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews