Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Tue, 7 Apr - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
1 Winner 3
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Charles Adah Agada - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Marko Livaja - 23', 58'
Adrion Pajaziti - 51'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with Hajduk Split securing a 3-1 victory away against Istra 1961. Hajduk Split took an early advantage, leading 1-0 at halftime, and ultimately justified their status as the stronger team. Going into the game, the visitors were the clear market favorites with a 56.3% implied win probability, compared to a 19.3% chance for the hosts and a 24.4% probability of a draw. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these pre-match expectations, reflecting a significant deviation level favoring Hajduk Split. On the pitch, Hajduk Split dictated the tempo, dominating the ball with 68% possession while restricting Istra 1961 to just 32%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with underlying chance quality. Nonetheless, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. The match proceeded without any major disciplinary events, as no red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, Hajduk Split utilized their heavy possession to methodically dismantle their opponents, ensuring their pre-match favoritism translated smoothly onto the final scoreboard.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Brajković
S. Brajković
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Erceg
M. Erceg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
B. Zobenica
B. Zobenica
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Dragasevic
F. Dragasevic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.89
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 64 W
Rijeka Rank: 72 W
Osijek Rank: 62 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 64 L
Gorica Rank: 63 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 79 L
Varaždin Rank: 63 D
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Osijek Rank: 62 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 14 - 36
36

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
19.32%
Draw
24.35%
Away Hajduk Split
56.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.31
72.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
Power Score
64.31
72.11
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
330
148

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.13
32.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.72
28.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 -0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split +0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Istra 1961
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961 Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961 0.18
Hajduk Split 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961 0.05
Hajduk Split 0.03
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
64 matches
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Away
Match Record
14
Wins
36
14
Draws
14
36
Losses
14
Goals
54
Goals Scored
113
113
Goals Conceded
54
-59
Goal Difference
+59
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:01:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
A. Kadušić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
M. Nasraoui
Tunisia
3 M. Nasraoui
S. Miettinen
Substitution
Finland
16 S. Miettinen
M. Heister
Germany
26 M. Heister
J. Radošević
Croatia
5 J. Radošević
L. Štulac
Substitution
Slovenia
23 L. Štulac
E. Frederiksen
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
A. Mauric
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
V. Rozić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 V. Rozić
S. Prevljak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
D. Melnjak
Croatia
17 D. Melnjak
Z. Šarlija
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
F. Krovinović
Substitution
Croatia
23 F. Krovinović
A. Pajaziti
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
M. Šego
Croatia
11 M. Šego
R. Pukstas
Substitution
United States
21 R. Pukstas
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
M. Livaja
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Livaja

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 07, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity
9800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Stipe Brajković
Mateo Erceg
Bojan Zobenica
Filip Dragasevic

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
36%
Hajduk Split
64%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 6
40 Dangerous attacks 65
32 Possession 68
2 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
19 Throwins 17
9 Goal Kicks 7
14 Dribble Attempts 20
0 Assists 3
5 Successful Dribbles 8
0 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
103 Attacks 119

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 30
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
221 Successful Passes 556
296 Passes 634
53 Long Passes 54
75 Successful Passes Percentage 88
5 Key Passes 15

Defensive

48 Duels Won 56
23 Tackles 17
5 Saves 1
9 Interceptions 4

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6
13 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

18 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Defender
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defender
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba
Defender76'
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Defender
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic Midfielder
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Midfielder
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican
Attacker76'
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Midfielder
29
Allen Obando
Allen Obando
Attacker67'
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Midfielder
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar
Midfielder58'
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
77
Charles Adah Agada
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker76'
Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defender
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Defender
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Midfielder
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
37
Noa Skoko
Noa Skoko
Midfielder76'
23
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Midfielder
6
Hugo Guillamón
Hugo Guillamón
Midfielder81'
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
24
Abdoulie Sanyang
Abdoulie Sanyang
Attacker81'
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Attacker
2
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder90+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Adam Guram → Marko Livaja
9th Substitution
Event
Oriol Riera
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
88'
86'
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Charles Adah Agada
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
84'
81'
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang → Roko Brajkovic
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Hugo Guillamón → Filip Krovinovic
7th Substitution
Event
Charles Adah Agada → Smail Prevljak
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Silvio Gorican → Vinko Rozic
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Filip Taraba → Samuli Miettinen
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Noa Skoko → Rokas Pukstas
5th Substitution
Event
Allen Obando → Antonio Mauric
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Stjepan Loncar → Leo Stulac
1st Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Marko Livaja
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
51'
Event
Adrion Pajaziti
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Emil Frederiksen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Marko Livaja
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Marko Livaja
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Advan Kadusic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hajduk Split exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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