Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MKM Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Hull City HUL
3 Winner 1
Sheffield Wednesday SHF
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Matt Crooks - 24'
Dominic Iorfa - 45+6' (Own Goal)
Kyle Joseph - 58'
Goal
|
Goal
Jamal Lowe - 23'

CONTEXT

The match between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday is now finished, with Hull City claiming a 3-1 full-time victory. The home side set the tone early, taking a 2-1 advantage into the halftime break. The match flowed naturally without any disruptive events or numeric disadvantages, as zero red cards were issued to either side. Heading into the fixture, pre-match market expectations heavily backed the hosts with a 68.6% win probability, leaving Sheffield Wednesday at 12.5% and the draw at 19%. The final result was entirely market-aligned. However, the performance metrics note a significant deviation level from Hull City, who firmly cemented their status as the stronger team on the day. Underlying statistics confirm the outcome was highly consistent with expected goals. Hull City controlled a narrow 51% possession share compared to Wednesday's 49%, but they were far more clinical with their time on the ball. The hosts generated a robust 2.36 xG against the visitors' minimal 0.8 xG. Ultimately, the finishing efficiency shift was completely in line with the run of play, reflecting a statistically sound and deserved home victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hull City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Sheffield Wednesday H. Pedersen
H. Pedersen
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.29
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Watford Rank: 69 D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
Southampton Rank: 75 W
Stoke City Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 L
Wrexham Rank: 75 L
Bristol City Rank: 68 L
Birmingham City Rank: 70 L
Portsmouth Rank: 65 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 6 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
68.55%
Draw
18.97%
Away Sheffield Wednesday
12.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.15
53.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Sheffield Wednesday
Power Score
71.15
53.24
League Position
5
24
Global Rank
173
671

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Sheffield Wednesday — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Sheffield Wednesday

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sheffield Wednesday

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sheffield Wednesday
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.75
17.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.86
22.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hull City +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Sheffield Wednesday -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Sheffield Wednesday
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hull City
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hull City Sheffield Wednesday
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hull City Sheffield Wednesday
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hull City
Sheffield Wednesday
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
23 matches
Sheffield Wednesday SHF Away
Match Record
11
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
11
Goals
28
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
28
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
I. Pandur
Croatia
1 I. Pandur
C. Drameh
England
18 C. Drameh
O. Ibidapo Ajayi
Nigeria
6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
J. Egan
Republic of Ireland
15 J. Egan
P. McNair
Northern Ireland
37 P. McNair
R. Slater
Substitution
England
27 (C) R. Slater
M. Crooks
Substitution
England
25 M. Crooks
K. Joseph
Substitution
Scotland
22 K. Joseph
J. Gelhardt
Substitution
England
21 J. Gelhardt
L. Millar
Substitution
Canada
7 L. Millar
O. McBurnie
Scotland
9 O. McBurnie
P. Charles
England
1 P. Charles
L. Palmer
Scotland
2 (C) L. Palmer
G. Otegbayo
England
22 G. Otegbayo
D. Iorfa
Substitution
England
6 D. Iorfa
T. Adaramola
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
45 T. Adaramola
S. Ingelsson
Substitution
Sweden
8 S. Ingelsson
J. Thornton
Substitution
England
37 J. Thornton
S. Fusire
England
4 S. Fusire
J. Heskey
England
24 J. Heskey
J. Lowe
Substitution
Jamaica
9 J. Lowe
J. Yates
England
12 J. Yates

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
MKM Stadium
Capacity
25586
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Darren Williams
David Harrison
Steven Copeland
Dean Whitestone

Statistics

Possession
HUL
52%
SHF
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 7
52 Dangerous attacks 35
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

82 Ball Safe 71
5 Substitutions 5
20 Dribble Attempts 25
27 Throwins 11
6 Goal Kicks 5
13 Successful Headers 9
2 Assists 0
5 Successful Dribbles 12
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

116 Attacks 77
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

7 Key Passes 3
75 Successful Passes Percentage 76
428 Passes 406
59 Long Passes 65
322 Successful Passes 310
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
23 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

8 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 3
26 Tackles 22

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 18
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Dean Whitestone

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
6.6
6
Semi Ajayi
Semi Ajayi Defender
6.81
15
John Egan
John Egan Defender
6.67
18
Cody Drameh
Cody Drameh Defender
6.46
37
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Patrick James Coleman McNair Defender
6.48
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Midfielder
6.78
20
Amir Hadziahmetovic
Amir Hadziahmetovic
Midfielder69'
6.51
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Midfielder
6.29
36
Lewis Koumas
Lewis Koumas
Attacker69'
6.52
22
Kyle Joseph
Kyle Joseph Midfielder
8.39
26
Kieran Dowell
Kieran Dowell
Midfielder80'
6.57
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Midfielder
6.96
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi
Attacker80'
6.61
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater (C) Midfielder
6.61
5
John Lundstram
John Lundstram
Midfielder31'
6.9
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Attacker
6.56
Referee : Dean Whitestone

Starting XI ▼

1
Pierce Joseph Charles
Pierce Joseph Charles Goalkeeper
6.6
2
Liam Palmer
Liam Palmer (C) Defender
6.22
6
Dominic Iorfa
Dominic Iorfa Defender
6.37
28
Cole McGhee
Cole McGhee
Defender85'
6.48
22
Gabriel Otegbayo
Gabriel Otegbayo Defender
6.06
4
Sean Fusire
Sean Fusire Midfielder
6.67
8
Svante Ingelsson
Svante Ingelsson Midfielder
6.4
14
Nathaniel Chalobah
Nathaniel Chalobah
Midfielder85'
6.36
37
Jarvis Thornton
Jarvis Thornton Midfielder
6.53
17
Charlie McNeill
Charlie McNeill
Attacker63'
6.48
45
Tayo Adaramola
Tayo Adaramola Midfielder
5.8
3
Max Lowe
Max Lowe
Defender63'
6.72
9
Jamal Lowe
Jamal Lowe Attacker
7.2
21
Joel Ndala
Joel Ndala
Attacker73'
6.54
12
Jerry Yates
Jerry Yates Attacker
6.47
24
Jaden Heskey
Jaden Heskey Attacker
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Charlie McNeill
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
John Lundstram
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
85'
Event
Nathaniel Chalobah → Svante Ingelsson
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Cole McGhee → Dominic Iorfa
10th Substitution
Event
Mohamed Belloumi → Matt Crooks
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Kieran Dowell → Kyle Joseph
8th Substitution
80'
73'
Event
Joel Ndala → Jamal Lowe
6th Substitution
Event
Amir Hadziahmetovic → Liam Millar
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Lewis Koumas → Joe Gelhardt
5th Substitution
69'
63'
Event
Max Lowe → Tayo Adaramola
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Charlie McNeill → Jarvis Thornton
3rd Substitution
Event
Kyle Joseph
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
Event
Matt Crooks
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Dominic Iorfa
Header / 1st Own Goal
45+6'
Event
John Egan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'
Event
John Lundstram → Regan Slater
1st Substitution
31'
Event
Matt Crooks
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
24'
23'
Event
Jamal Lowe
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Oliver McBurnie from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Lewis Koumas.
90
Update Update
Gabriel Otegbayo from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Hull City defeating Sheffield Wednesday by a score of 3-1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Belloumi of Hull City strikes the left post with a left-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area, with an assist from Semi Ajayi.
89
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Kieran Dowell from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Kieran Dowell from Hull City has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
John Lundstram of Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
88
Update Update
Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Update Update
John Lundstram committed a foul against Hull City.
87
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Mohamed Belloumi from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Pierce Charles from Sheffield Wednesday makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Amir Hadziahmetovic.
87
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Cole McGhee comes on to replace Dominic Iorfa.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Nathaniel Chalobah comes on to replace Svante Ingelsson.
82
Update Update
Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Update Update
Mohamed Belloumi from Hull City committed a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Kieran Dowell comes on to replace Kyle Joseph.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Mohamed Belloumi replaces Matt Crooks.
78
Update Update
Joel Ndala from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Amir Hadziahmetovic from Hull City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Kyle Joseph from Hull City took a right-footed shot from close range, but it sailed high and wide to the right. The chance was set up by Paddy McNair, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after a deflection off Dominic Iorfa.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Joel Ndala comes on to replace Jamal Lowe.
73
Update Update
Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Lewis Koumas from Hull City committed a foul.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Max Lowe of Sheffield Wednesday attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Dominic Iorfa, who delivered a cross into the box.
70
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Paddy McNair from Hull City committed a foul.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Lewis Koumas is coming on to replace Joe Gelhardt.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Amir Hadziahmetovic comes on to replace Liam Millar.
68
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Gabriel Otegbayo from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sheffield Wednesday after Semi Ajayi allowed the ball to go out.
66
Update Update
Offside call against Hull City. Joe Gelhardt has been caught in an offside position.
65
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Oliver McBurnie from Hull City takes a right-footed shot from within the six-yard box. However, Pierce Charles, the goalkeeper for Sheffield Wednesday, makes a save, positioning himself centrally to deny the attempt on the left side.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Charlie McNeill comes on to replace Jarvis Thornton.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Max Lowe replaces Tayo Adaramola.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Joe Gelhardt from Hull City took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Liam Millar.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hull City leads 3-1 against Sheffield Wednesday. Kyle Joseph scores for Hull City with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Tayo Adaramola allowed the ball to go out.
54
Update Update
Jerry Yates committed a foul against Sheffield Wednesday.
54
Update Update
Semi Ajayi from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Sean Fusire allowed the ball to go out.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Gabriel Otegbayo allowed the ball to go out.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Oliver McBurnie from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from close range, but it's blocked. The assist came from Kyle Joseph.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matt Crooks of Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
49
Update Update
Matt Crooks committed a foul against Hull City.
49
Update Update
Dominic Iorfa from Sheffield Wednesday has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
48
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sean Fusire of Sheffield Wednesday fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
46
Update Update
Sean Fusire of Sheffield Wednesday was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
46
Update Update
Matt Crooks commits a foul against Hull City.
45
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a corner kick after Ivor Pandur allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jarvis Thornton of Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box. However, Ivor Pandur from Hull City makes a save, diving to his left. The assist came from Svante Ingelsson.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Hull City leading Sheffield Wednesday by a score of 2-1.
45
Update Update
Liam Palmer of Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
45
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Jarvis Thornton from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s expertly saved in the left corner by Ivor Pandur of Hull City. The assist came from Svante Ingelsson.
45
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Joe Gelhardt from Hull City earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
45
Update Update
Paddy McNair from Hull City earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
45
Update Update
Dominic Iorfa of Sheffield Wednesday has accidentally scored an own goal. The score now stands at Hull City 2, Sheffield Wednesday 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Liam Millar from Hull City took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from John Lundstram.
42
Update Update
Jaden Heskey of Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
42
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
John Egan from Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
40
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but failed to hit the target. The assist came from Jerry Yates.
38
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Jaden Heskey from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Offside call against Hull City. Liam Millar has been flagged for being offside.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sheffield Wednesday after Kyle Joseph allowed the ball to go out.
31
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jerry Yates from Sheffield Wednesday attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal.
31
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: John Lundstram comes on to replace Regan Slater due to an injury.
30
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
27
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Regan Slater from Hull City.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now Hull City 1, Sheffield Wednesday 1. Matt Crooks found the back of the net for Hull City, firing a right-footed shot from close range towards the center of the goal. The assist came from Kyle Joseph, who delivered a precise cross.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sheffield Wednesday takes the lead against Hull City with a score of 1-0. Jamal Lowe fires a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner.
22
Update Update
Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
22
Update Update
Semi Ajayi commits a foul against Hull City.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sheffield Wednesday after Semi Ajayi allowed the ball to go out.
17
Update Update
Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Regan Slater from Hull City committed a foul.
13
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday earns a corner after Paddy McNair allows the ball to go out.
12
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Oliver McBurnie from Hull City takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, the attempt is thwarted by Sheffield Wednesday's goalkeeper, Pierce Charles, who makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist for this play came from Liam Millar.
10
Update Update
Offside call against Sheffield Wednesday. Jerry Yates has been flagged for being in an offside position.
4
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
4
Update Update
Gabriel Otegbayo committed a foul for Sheffield Wednesday.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hull City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews