Heidenheim vs St. Pauli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Heidenheim HDH
Versus
St. Pauli PAU
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Heidenheim host St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion. Domestically, Heidenheim sit 18th in the table while St. Pauli are 16th. Power ranking favours Heidenheim by 0.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Heidenheim claims a slight structural edge, rated stronger with a 0.2-point power advantage over St. Pauli.
  • Form: Hosts dominate recent form, posting 13.61 against St. Pauli's dismal 6.5.
  • Squad: League table places Heidenheim 18th and St. Pauli 16th, with no further squad details disclosed.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both competing sides.
  • Transition: Transition performance data absent from current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies for Heidenheim and St. Pauli, lacking xG.
  • xVariable: xG variables not accessible due to disabled data add-on.
  • Market: Heidenheim 37.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.2% (Δ+0%) | St. Pauli 34.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
0.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: D
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: D
FC Bayern München Rank: L
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
37.41%
Draw
28.17%
Away St. Pauli
34.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.64
15.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
St. Pauli
Power Score
15.64
15.48
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim St. Pauli

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heidenheim HDH Home
3 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T02:09:00+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

41
Diant Ramaj
Diant Ramaj Goalkeeper
34
Paul Tschernuth
Paul Tschernuth Goalkeeper
40
Frank Feller
Frank Feller Goalkeeper
2
Marnon Busch
Marnon Busch Defender
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Defender
32
Leart Paqarada
Leart Paqarada Defender
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Defender
5
Benedikt Gimber
Benedikt Gimber Defender
4
Tim Siersleben
Tim Siersleben Defender
23
Haktab Omar Traorè
Haktab Omar Traorè Defender
25
Leonidas Stergiou
Leonidas Stergiou Defender
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Defender
28
Adam Kölle
Adam Kölle Defender
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Midfielder
21
Adrian Beck
Adrian Beck Midfielder
16
Julian Niehues
Julian Niehues Midfielder
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Midfielder
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Midfielder
20
Luca Kerber
Luca Kerber Midfielder
33
Nick Rothweiler
Nick Rothweiler Midfielder
31
Sirlord Conteh
Sirlord Conteh Attacker
9
Stefan Schimmer
Stefan Schimmer Attacker
17
Mathias Honsak
Mathias Honsak Attacker
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Attacker
10
Christian Joe Conteh
Christian Joe Conteh Attacker
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
29
Mikkel Kaufmann
Mikkel Kaufmann Attacker
8
Eren Dinkci
Eren Dinkci Attacker
38
Yannik Wagner
Yannik Wagner Attacker

Squad ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
30
Simon Spari
Simon Spari Goalkeeper
1
Ben Alexander Voll
Ben Alexander Voll Goalkeeper
47
Emil Gazdov
Emil Gazdov Goalkeeper
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Defender
2
Manolis Saliakas
Manolis Saliakas Defender
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
25
Adam Dźwigała
Adam Dźwigała Defender
8
Eric Anders Smith
Eric Anders Smith Defender
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Defender
4
David Nemeth
David Nemeth Defender
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Defender
14
Finley Stevens
Finley Stevens Defender
15
Tomoya Ando
Tomoya Ando Defender
34
Jannik Thomas Robatsch
Jannik Thomas Robatsch Defender
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Midfielder
6
James Sands
James Sands Midfielder
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe Midfielder
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
42
Marwin Reiner Ian Schmitz
Marwin Reiner Ian Schmitz Midfielder
44
Nick Schmidt
Nick Schmidt Midfielder
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Attacker
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
Mathias Pereira Lage Attacker
18
Taichi Hara
Taichi Hara Attacker
27
Andreas Hountondji
Andreas Hountondji Attacker
26
Ricky Jade-Jones
Ricky Jade-Jones Attacker
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Heidenheim holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Heidenheim a 0.2-point edge. External projection is Heidenheim 37.4%, draw 28.2%, and St. Pauli 34.4%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Related Football Previews