Hearts vs Motherwell Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tynecastle Park Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Hearts Hearts
3 Winner 1
Motherwell MOT
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Cláudio Braga - 61'
Lawrence Shankland - 87' (P)
Pierre Landry Kabore - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Emmanuel Longelo - 50'

CONTEXT

The match is finished with Hearts recording a 3-1 victory over Motherwell. The sides were level at 0-0 after an even first half, but Hearts improved after the interval and scored three times to seal the result. Pre-match expectations heavily favored Hearts as the stronger side, and the outcome showed only minimal deviation from that projection. The home team ultimately delivered a performance aligned with those expectations, confirming their superiority without significant disruption. No red cards were issued to either side, allowing the contest to flow without major disciplinary impact. Possession was shared fairly evenly, with Hearts at 47 percent and Motherwell holding 53 percent. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the result matched the pre-match projection of a Hearts win. Overall the home side converted their chances more effectively in the second half to claim a deserved victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hearts showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. McDermid
M. McDermid
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
D. McGeachie
D. McGeachie
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
D. Roome
D. Roome
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
A. Grieve
A. Grieve
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
VS
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: D
Dundee Rank: W
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Aberdeen Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Dundee Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: W
29
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
29 - 10 - 23
23

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Motherwell
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.6
23.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Motherwell
Power Score
32.6
23.77
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.79
25.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.47
29.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hearts +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hearts Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hearts Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hearts
vs
Motherwell
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hearts Motherwell
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hearts 0.30
Motherwell 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hearts Motherwell
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hearts 0.03
Motherwell 0.08
Hearts
Motherwell
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hearts had peak pressure around 25'.
  • Hearts started the game with stronger pressure.
Hearts Pressure MOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hearts reached the top pressure at 25' (87.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 62 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts Hearts Home
62 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
29
Wins
23
10
Draws
10
23
Losses
29
Goals
86
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
86
+21
Goal Difference
-21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
O. McEntee
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
31 O. McEntee
C. Halkett
Scotland
4 C. Halkett
S. Findlay
Scotland
19 S. Findlay
S. Kingsley
Substitution
Scotland
3 S. Kingsley
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
B. Baningime
DR Congo
6 B. Baningime
C. Devlin
Australia
14 C. Devlin
B. Spittal
Substitution
Scotland
16 B. Spittal
L. Shankland
Scotland
9 L. Shankland
C. Soares Braga
Substitution
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
S. Welsh
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
P. McGinn
Scotland
16 P. McGinn
T. Sparrow
Substitution
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
L. Fadinger
Substitution
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
M. Emmanuel
Substitution
England
45 M. Emmanuel
E. Just
New Zealand
21 E. Just
I. Sa’id
Substitution
Nigeria
90 I. Sa’id
T. Maswanhise
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
Capacity
20099
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matthew McDermid
David McGeachie
D. Roome
Alastair Grieve

Statistics

Possession
Hearts
48%
MOT
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 7
40 Dangerous attacks 30
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

59 Ball Safe 58
23 Successful Headers 19
8 Goal Kicks 6
23 Throwins 21
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
2 Successful Dribbles 3
6 Dribble Attempts 10
2 Assists 1
2 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

76 Attacks 63
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

314 Passes 366
71 Successful Passes Percentage 78
223 Successful Passes 285
64 Long Passes 60
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
10 Key Passes 11
19 Successful Long Passes 25

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5
17 Tackles 11
2 Saves 2

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 16
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
7 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Matthew McDermid

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Defender
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena
Defender79'
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
31
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Defender
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender
Defender79'
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
14
Cammy Devlin
Cammy Devlin Midfielder
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota
Attacker66'
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore
Attacker66'
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart
Defender90'
Referee : Matthew McDermid

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
6
Jordan McGhee
Jordan McGhee
Defender88'
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Defender
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman
Midfielder89'
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Midfielder
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Midfielder
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry
Attacker88'
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
19
Sam Nicholson
Sam Nicholson
Attacker89'
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore
3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+2'
Event
Jamie McCart → Cláudio Braga
9th Substitution
90'
89'
Event
Sam Nicholson → Ibrahim Said
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Oscar Priestman → Lukas Fadinger
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Callum Hendry → Emmanuel Longelo
5th Substitution
88'
Event
Jordan McGhee → Tom Sparrow
6th Substitution
Event
Lawrence Shankland
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
87'
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore
Penalty awarded
85'
82'
Event
Ibrahim Said
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jordi Altena → Stephen Kingsley
3rd Substitution
79'
Event
Michael Steinwender → Oisin McEntee
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore → Alexandros Kyziridis
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Sabah Kerjota → Blair Spittal
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Cláudio Braga
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
50'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Paul McGinn
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Pierre Landry Kabore scores for Heart of Midlothian in the 92nd minute.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pierre Landry Kabore of Heart of Midlothian receives a yellow card in the 93rd minute.
90
Substitution Substitution
Jamie McCart is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 90th minute.
89
Substitution Substitution
Oscar Priestman is substituted for Motherwell in the 89th minute.
89
Substitution Substitution
Sam Nicholson is substituted for Motherwell in the 89th minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Callum Hendry is substituted for Motherwell in the 88th minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Jordan McGhee is substituted for Motherwell in the 88th minute.
87
Update Update
Lawrence Shankland scores a penalty for Heart of Midlothian in the 87th minute.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Sa'Id of Motherwell receives a yellow card in the 82nd minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Michael Steinwender is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 79th minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Jordi Altena substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 79th minute.
66
Substitution Substitution
Pierre Landry Kabore is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 66th minute.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Heart of Midlothian at 66 minutes: Sabah Kerjota comes on.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Cláudio Braga scores for Heart of Midlothian in the 61st minute.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emmanuel Longelo scores for Motherwell at the 50th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hearts exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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