Hartberg vs Austria Wien Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
PROfertil ARENA Sun, 22 Mar - 1:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Hartberg HTB
0 Winner 1
Austria Wien FAK
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:30 PM
Round 2 Championship Round
|
Goal
Manfred Fischer - 45+1'
Konstantin Schopp 38' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Austria Wien securing a 1-0 away victory over Hartberg, a scoreline that was already established by half-time. Pre-match market probabilities favored the visitors at 42.1%, compared to a 28.6% chance for Hartberg and a 29.3% likelihood of a draw. Ultimately, the result represented a significant deviation in favor of Austria Wien, aligning perfectly with the initial market projections. Austria Wien dominated the underlying metrics, controlling 60% of the possession compared to the hosts' 40%. They comfortably out-chanced their opponents, generating 1.37 expected goals (xG) while stifling Hartberg to a dismal 0.05 xG. Because of this stark offensive contrast, the final outcome was completely consistent with the xG figures and confirmed the away side's superiority. The match dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card shown to a Hartberg player. This crucial dismissal caused a noticeable red card distortion in the second half, severely limiting the home side's ability to mount a comeback. Overall finishing efficiency remained in line with statistical models throughout the contest, allowing Austria Wien to safely convert their numerical and territorial advantage into three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Austria Wien showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
VS
Austria Wien S. Helm
S. Helm
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: 64 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Grazer AK Rank: 52 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 D
SK Rapid Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 67 L
Ried Rank: 51 W
LASK Linz Rank: 64 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 L
SK Rapid Rank: 61 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hartberg
28.61%
Draw
29.28%
Away Austria Wien
42.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60
66.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hartberg
Austria Wien
Power Score
60
66.35
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
484
291

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Austria Wien — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hartberg Austria Wien

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Austria Wien

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
7.50
25.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.50
7.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hartberg -1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Austria Wien +1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hartberg
Austria Wien
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hartberg
vs
Austria Wien
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hartberg Austria Wien
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hartberg Austria Wien
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hartberg
Austria Wien
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hartberg HTB Home
23 matches
Austria Wien FAK Away
Match Record
7
Wins
13
3
Draws
3
13
Losses
7
Goals
25
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
25
-19
Goal Difference
+19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
T. Hülsmann
Germany
40 T. Hülsmann
L. Pazourek
Substitution
Austria
2 L. Pazourek
K. Schopp
Austria
27 K. Schopp
F. Wilfinger
Austria
18 F. Wilfinger
H. Coulibaly
Spain
6 H. Coulibaly
D. Vincze
Substitution
Austria
3 D. Vincze
J. Heil
Substitution
Austria
28 (C) J. Heil
B. Markuš
Slovenia
4 B. Markuš
J. Halwachs
Substitution
Austria
8 J. Halwachs
J. Drew
Substitution
Australia
79 J. Drew
E. Havel
Austria
7 E. Havel
S. Sahin-Radlinger
Austria
1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
P. Wiesinger
Austria
28 P. Wiesinger
A. Dragović
Austria
15 A. Dragović
J. Handl
Substitution
Austria
46 J. Handl
T. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
17 T. Lee
Lee Kang-Hee
South Korea
16 Lee Kang-Hee
P. Maybach
Substitution
Austria
6 P. Maybach
R. Ranftl
Austria
26 R. Ranftl
V. Markovic
Substitution
Austria
36 V. Markovic
M. Fischer
Austria
30 (C) M. Fischer
J. Eggestein
Germany
19 J. Eggestein

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
PROfertil ARENA
Capacity
4635
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Martin Höfler
Philip Gadler
Amina Gutschi
Stefan Ebner

Statistics

Possession
HTB
42%
FAK
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 5
2 Shots 2
20 Dangerous attacks 66
40 Possession 60
1 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
1 Goal Attempts 5
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
26 Throwins 29
6 Successful Dribbles 6
8 Goal Kicks 5
14 Dribble Attempts 10
80 Ball Safe 63
5 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 1

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 4
90 Attacks 112

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 82
320 Passes 459
248 Successful Passes 375
59 Long Passes 63
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
27 Successful Long Passes 31
1 Key Passes 8

Defensive

6 Interceptions 14
11 Tackles 20
1 Saves 1

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 25
1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Stefan Ebner

Starting XI ▼

40
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper
6.54
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek Defender
6.28
11
Maximilian Fillafer
Maximilian Fillafer
Attacker77'
6.36
3
Dominic Vincze
Dominic Vincze Defender
6.32
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann
Attacker53'
6.29
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
7.04
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Defender
6.82
27
Konstantin Schopp
Konstantin Schopp Defender
6.2
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Midfielder
6.56
8
Julian Halwachs
Julian Halwachs Midfielder
6.55
61
Musibau Aziz
Musibau Aziz
Attacker77'
6.65
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil (C) Midfielder
6.42
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas
Attacker77'
6.74
7
Elias Havel
Elias Havel Attacker
6.49
79
Jed Drew
Jed Drew Attacker
6.27
95
Damjan Kovacevic
Damjan Kovacevic
Defender43'
6.6
Referee : Stefan Ebner

Starting XI ▼

1
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger Goalkeeper
6.99
15
Aleksandar Dragovic
Aleksandar Dragovic Defender
7.11
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Philipp Wiesinger Defender
7.36
46
Johannes Handl
Johannes Handl Defender
6.73
60
Dejan Radonjic
Dejan Radonjic
Defender79'
6.34
6
Philipp Maybach
Philipp Maybach Midfielder
6.61
34
Romeo Mörth
Romeo Mörth
Attacker63'
6.26
16
Kang-hee Lee
Kang-hee Lee Midfielder
6.75
17
Tae-seok Lee
Tae-seok Lee Midfielder
6.6
40
Matteo Schablas
Matteo Schablas
Defender63'
6.83
26
Reinhold Ranftl
Reinhold Ranftl Midfielder
7.55
19
Johannes Eggestein
Johannes Eggestein Attacker
7.2
30
Manfred Fischer
Manfred Fischer (C) Attacker
8.08
36
Vasilije Markovic
Vasilije Markovic Attacker
7.43
7
Romeo Vucic
Romeo Vucic
Attacker79'
6.45

Events

2ND-HALF
79'
Event
Romeo Vucic → Vasilije Markovic
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Dejan Radonjic → Johannes Handl
8th Substitution
Event
Lukas Fridrikas → Jürgen Heil
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Musibau Aziz → Julian Halwachs
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Maximilian Fillafer → Luca Pazourek
6th Substitution
77'
71'
Event
Johannes Handl
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Romeo Mörth
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Romeo Mörth → Philipp Maybach
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Matteo Schablas → Tae-seok Lee
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Vasilije Markovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Marco Hoffmann → Dominic Vincze
2nd Substitution
53'
49'
Event
Tae-seok Lee
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
7th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Manfred Fischer
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Damjan Kovacevic → Jed Drew
1st Substitution
43'
Event
Konstantin Schopp
Foul / 1st Redcard
38'
Event
Konstantin Schopp
Card adjusted
38'
1'
Event
Kang-hee Lee
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1'
Event
6th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Austria Wien exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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