Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 15 Mar - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
2 Winner 1
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 2:00 PM
Marko Livaja - 22'
Ante Rebić - 33'
Goal
|
Goal
Ibrahim Sabra - 61'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hajduk Split 2–1 Lokomotiva Zagreb. The result saw Hajduk Split take the points. Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 46%–54%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Pajić
L. Pajić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
I. Starčević
I. Starčević
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Antonio Melnjak
Antonio Melnjak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 77 L
Varaždin Rank: 65 D
Rijeka Rank: 72 W
Osijek Rank: 61 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 W
Gorica Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 63 D
Rijeka Rank: 72 L
Osijek Rank: 61 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 L
Gorica Rank: 58 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 D
32
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
32 - 15 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
60.21%
Draw
24.9%
Away Lokomotiva Zagreb
14.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.5
60.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
70.5
60.31
League Position
2
7
Global Rank
170
445

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
54.13
36.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.57
54.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split +1.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb -1.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
22 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away
Match Record
12
Wins
4
6
Draws
6
4
Losses
12
Goals
45
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
45
+19
Goal Difference
-19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:12:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
Z. Šarlija
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
?. Hrgović
Croatia
32 ?. Hrgović
R. Pukstas
United States
21 R. Pukstas
H. Guillamón Sanmartín
Substitution
Spain
6 H. Guillamón Sanmartín
F. Krovinović
Croatia
23 F. Krovinović
R. Brajković
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
M. Livaja
Substitution
Croatia
10 (C) M. Livaja
A. Rebić
Substitution
Croatia
9 A. Rebić
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
D. Kamenović
Substitution
Serbia
33 D. Kamenović
T. Jukić
Germany
5 T. Jukić
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 (C) D. Kolinger
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
B. Bošković
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
M. Subotic
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
M. Vešović
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
L. Belcar
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
A. Trajkovski
Substitution
Macedonia
7 A. Trajkovski
A. Stojaković
Substitution
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luka Pajić
Ivan Starčević
Patrik Pavlešić
Antonio Melnjak

Statistics

Possession
Hajduk Split
48%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 4
15 Shots 11
78 Dangerous attacks 55
46 Possession 54
5 Corners 10
6 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 15
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
3 Goal Kicks 12
22 Throwins 20
3 Substitutions 5
4 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

110 Attacks 89
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

298 Successful Passes 342
16 Key Passes 10
49 Long Passes 60
22 Successful Long Passes 35
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
355 Passes 414
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83

Defensive

3 Saves 7
17 Tackles 20
5 Interceptions 5

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 24
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

17 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.72
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Defender
7.29
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.93
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
6.83
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic Defender
6.92
6
Hugo Guillamón
Hugo Guillamón Midfielder
7
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego
Attacker72'
6.74
9
Ante Rebić
Ante Rebić Midfielder
8.07
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak
Defender86'
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
6.97
23
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Midfielder
7.13
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Midfielder
6.59
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja (C) Attacker
8.35
7
Anthony Kalik
Anthony Kalik
Midfielder90'
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
8.14
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Defender
6.23
26
Marko Rog
Marko Rog
Midfielder84'
6.19
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger (C) Defender
6.69
33
Dimitrije Kamenovic
Dimitrije Kamenovic Defender
6.54
18
Khalil Ben Youssef
Khalil Ben Youssef
Defender46'
7.12
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Midfielder
6.84
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
6.68
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Midfielder46'
6.14
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Midfielder
6.85
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak
Attacker80'
6.48
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Midfielder
7.3
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Midfielder
6.57
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
7.05
7
Aleksandar Trajkovski
Aleksandar Trajkovski Attacker
6.63
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra
Attacker46'
7.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Anthony Kalik → Marko Livaja
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Dario Melnjak → Ante Rebić
7th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Marko Rog → Matija Subotic
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Mirko Susak → Aleks Stojakovic
5th Substitution
Event
Michele Sego → Hugo Guillamón
4th Substitution
72'
61'
Event
Ibrahim Sabra
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Zvonimir Sarlija
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
46'
Event
Ibrahim Sabra → Aleksandar Trajkovski
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Khalil Ben Youssef → Dimitrije Kamenovic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jakov-Anton Vasilj → Blaz Boskovic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ante Rebić
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Marko Livaja
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hajduk Split exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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