Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 8 Mar - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
1 Winner 3
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 2:00 PM
Rokas Pukstas - 28'
Goal
|
Goal
Miha Zajc - 7'
Gabriel Vidovic - 11'
Monsef Bakrar - 38'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hajduk Split 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb. The result saw Dinamo Zagreb take the points. Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Novosel
K. Novosel
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
M. Erceg
M. Erceg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
I. Janić
I. Janić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.06
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: D
Vukovar Rank: W
Osijek Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 22 - 33
33

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
27.05%
Draw
27.87%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
45.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.67
76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
62.67
76
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.56
45.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.65
30.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split -1.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb +1.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
22 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
6
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
6
Goals
18
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
18
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:07:27+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kristijan Novosel
Patrik Pavlešić
Mateo Erceg
Ivan Janić

Statistics

Possession
Hajduk Split
51%
GNK
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 7
4 Shots 3
70 Dangerous attacks 60
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Successful Dribbles 12
22 Throwins 27
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
10 Dribble Attempts 24
10 Goal Kicks 8
0 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 4
115 Attacks 105

Possession

397 Passes 347
51 Long Passes 67
17 Successful Long Passes 28
313 Successful Passes 256
9 Key Passes 12
79 Successful Passes Percentage 74
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

28 Tackles 18
9 Interceptions 19
2 Saves 2

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 12
8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 18

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Fran Topic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Marko Soldo → Miha Zajc
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Fran Topic → Monsef Bakrar
9th Substitution
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang → Roko Brajkovic
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Dario Melnjak → Simun Hrgovic
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Marko Livaja → Hugo Guillamón
5th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Niko Galesic → Moris Valincic
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf → Bruno Goda
3rd Substitution
Event
Filip Krovinovic → Noa Skoko
2nd Substitution
65'
54'
Event
Josip Misic
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
48'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Zvonimir Sarlija → Luka Hodak
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Hugo Guillamón
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
28'
11'
Event
Gabriel Vidovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
7'
Event
Miha Zajc
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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