Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sat, 14 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK GAK
2 Winner 0
Wolfsberger AC WAC
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 4:00 PM
Mathias Olesen - 25'
Daniel Maderner - 80'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with Grazer AK securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Wolfsberger AC. The home side established control early, going into halftime with a 1-0 advantage before doubling their lead in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Going into the fixture, Wolfsberger AC was marginally viewed as the stronger side with an implied win probability of 35.4%, compared to Grazer AK's 35.2% and a 29.4% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market, resulting in a notable upset favoring the home side. Despite the loss, Wolfsberger AC controlled the majority of the ball with 56% possession, leaving Grazer AK to operate effectively with just 44%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be definitively determined if the outcome aligned with the underlying quality of chances created by either side. However, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with standard expectations. Finally, the match was contested cleanly without any red cards to alter the tactical balance or dictate the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grazer AK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Ristoskov
E. Ristoskov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
J. Spurny
J. Spurny
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
N. Vucanovic
N. Vucanovic
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Diesenberger
M. Diesenberger
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
VS
Wolfsberger AC I. Atalan
I. Atalan
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 L
Ried Rank: 52 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 L
Salzburg Rank: 70 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: 63 L
Sturm Graz Rank: 66 D
SK Rapid Rank: 58 L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 50 L
Grazer AK Rank: 49 D
Salzburg Rank: 70 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Grazer AK
35.19%
Draw
29.42%
Away Wolfsberger AC
35.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.63
60.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
Power Score
49.63
60.04
League Position
11
10
Global Rank
746
454

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Wolfsberger AC — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK Wolfsberger AC

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wolfsberger AC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wolfsberger AC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.30
30.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.54
28.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grazer AK -0.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Wolfsberger AC +0.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grazer AK
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grazer AK Wolfsberger AC
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grazer AK Wolfsberger AC
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Grazer AK
Wolfsberger AC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home
4 matches
Wolfsberger AC WAC Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
0
Goals
8
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
8
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:34:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
L. Vraa-Jensen
Denmark
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
J. Italiano
Substitution
Australia
14 J. Italiano
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 (C) T. Schriebl
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
A. Hofleitner
Substitution
Austria
25 A. Hofleitner
R. Harakaté
France
22 R. Harakaté
N. Polster
Austria
12 N. Polster
N. Wimmer
Austria
37 N. Wimmer
C. Diabaté
Substitution
15 C. Diabaté
D. Baumgartner
Austria
22 (C) D. Baumgartner
R. Renner
Austria
77 R. Renner
A. Schöpf
Austria
18 A. Schöpf
S. Piesinger
Substitution
Austria
8 S. Piesinger
B. Matić
Serbia
2 B. Matić
M. Sulzner
Austria
30 M. Sulzner
D. Zukić
Substitution
Serbia
20 D. Zukić
E. Kojzek
Substitution
Slovenia
9 E. Kojzek

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Emil Ristoskov
Josef Spurny
Njegos Vucanovic
Mario Diesenberger

Statistics

Possession
GAK
46%
WAC
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 9
29 Dangerous attacks 42
44 Possession 56
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Injuries 1
2 Assists 0
97 Ball Safe 88
14 Dribble Attempts 15
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
12 Goal Kicks 9
11 Goal Attempts 10
7 Successful Dribbles 9
19 Throwins 23
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

95 Attacks 118
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
64 Long Passes 61
240 Successful Passes 321
71 Successful Passes Percentage 74
25 Successful Long Passes 23
339 Passes 434
10 Key Passes 9

Defensive

4 Saves 1
11 Tackles 15
17 Interceptions 7

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

14 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Josef Spurny

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
7.38
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
7.47
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender
6.46
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6.95
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
7.6
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
6.34
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse
Attacker82'
6.51
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
6.68
28
Dominik Frieser
Dominik Frieser
Attacker46'
6.56
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl (C) Midfielder
7.54
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder75'
6.51
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.23
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
7
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner Attacker
7.27
9
Daniel Maderner
Daniel Maderner
Attacker74'
7.38
Referee : Josef Spurny

Starting XI ▼

12
Nikolas Polster
Nikolas Polster Goalkeeper
6.49
15
Cheick Mamadou Diabaté
Cheick Mamadou Diabaté Defender
6.27
13
Tobias Gruber
Tobias Gruber
Defender85'
6.48
22
Dominik Baumgartner
Dominik Baumgartner (C) Defender
6.37
37
Nicolas Wimmer
Nicolas Wimmer Defender
6.75
2
Boris Matic
Boris Matic Midfielder
7.72
8
Simon Piesinger
Simon Piesinger Midfielder
6.54
24
Jessic Ngankam
Jessic Ngankam
Attacker46'
6.16
18
Alessandro Schöpf
Alessandro Schöpf Midfielder
7.15
77
Rene Renner
Rene Renner Midfielder
7.45
9
Erik Kojzek
Erik Kojzek Attacker
6.89
10
Donis Avdijaj
Donis Avdijaj
Midfielder77'
6.63
20
Dejan Zukic
Dejan Zukic Attacker
6.27
17
David Atanga
David Atanga
Attacker85'
30
Marco Sulzner
Marco Sulzner Attacker
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Marco Sulzner
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
David Atanga → Dejan Zukic
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Tobias Gruber → Cheick Mamadou Diabaté
8th Substitution
Event
Mark Grosse → Christian Lichtenberger
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Daniel Maderner
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
77'
Event
Donis Avdijaj → Erik Kojzek
5th Substitution
Event
Murat Satin → Thorsten Schriebl
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Daniel Maderner → Alexander Hofleitner
3rd Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Nicolas Wimmer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Dominik Baumgartner
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dominik Frieser → Jacob Italiano
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Cheick Mamadou Diabaté
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Jessic Ngankam → Simon Piesinger
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Goal disallowed
42'
Event
Mathias Olesen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Grazer AK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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