Gorica vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Sun, 22 Mar - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
4 Winner 0
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:45 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Ante Erceg - 12'
Bruno Bogojevic - 52', 70', 76'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Gorica and Rijeka has finished, with Gorica securing a commanding 3-0 victory. The hosts were not even at halftime, having already established a 1-0 lead before extending their advantage in the second period. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Gorica defied the odds to secure the win. Rijeka entered the contest as the stronger team with a 36.4% probability of winning, compared to Gorica's 32.1% chance and a 31.5% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market. Despite the decisive scoreline, Rijeka actually controlled the majority of the ball, holding 58% possession to Gorica's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate whether the final outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with general match dynamics. The fixture was played without major disciplinary disruptions altering the flow of the game. Neither side suffered a sending-off, with zero red cards shown, ensuring both teams contested the full ninety minutes without any numerical disadvantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gorica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
0.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.53
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 62 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Varaždin Rank: 64 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 D
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 4 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
32.13%
Draw
31.46%
Away Rijeka
36.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.1
70.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Rijeka
Power Score
63.1
70.34
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
384
190

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.29
25.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.09
29.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gorica +0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka -0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gorica Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gorica Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
30 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
10
Wins
16
4
Draws
4
16
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
30
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
M. Čabraja
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Substitution
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 (C) J. Pršir
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
A. Erceg
Substitution
Croatia
50 A. Erceg
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 (C) M. Zlomislić
A. Husic
Switzerland
51 A. Husic
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
B. Pavić
Substitution
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
C. Legbo Ouguehi
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
T. Morchiladze
Substitution
Georgia
7 T. Morchiladze
S. Vignato
Substitution
Italy
19 S. Vignato
J. Lasickas
Lithuania
23 J. Lasickas
T. Fruk
Substitution
Croatia
10 T. Fruk
A. Jurič
Croatia
77 A. Jurič

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Attendance
1373
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duje Strukan
Vice Vidović
Ante Terzić
Alen Jakšić

Statistics

Possession
Gorica
45%
Rijeka
55%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 11
46 Dangerous attacks 71
42 Possession 58
1 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 3
17 Throwins 28
15 Dribble Attempts 14
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
4 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
8 Successful Dribbles 7

Attacking

100 Attacks 158
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

346 Passes 454
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
32 Successful Long Passes 16
77 Successful Passes Percentage 83
7 Key Passes 8
265 Successful Passes 375
63 Long Passes 35

Defensive

11 Interceptions 8
15 Tackles 16
3 Saves 2

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 24
3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

9 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
7.48
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
7.1
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Defender
7.1
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
6.83
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
7.53
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic
Midfielder90+2'
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.81
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
3
9.43
20
Luka Vrzic
Luka Vrzic
Attacker84'
6.56
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
7.12
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir (C) Attacker
6.71
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker72'
6.7
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Attacker
6.82
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis
Midfielder84'
6.55
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
7.92
99
Medin Gashi
Medin Gashi
Attacker90+1'
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic (C) Goalkeeper
6.49
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
6.31
51
Anel Husic
Anel Husic Defender
6.62
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Defender
5.59
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
7.13
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina
Attacker72'
6.52
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Midfielder
6.46
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Midfielder
6.41
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic
Defender71'
6.5
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
6.41
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Attacker56'
6.39
7
Tornike Morchiladze
Tornike Morchiladze Attacker
6.18
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas
Midfielder56'
6.54
19
Samuele Vignato
Samuele Vignato Attacker
6.87
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak
Midfielder46'
6.35
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric Attacker
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ognjen Bakic → Iker Pozo
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Medin Gashi → Ante Erceg
9th Substitution
90+1'
86'
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Stjepan Kucis → Domagoj Pavicic
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Luka Vrzic → Bruno Bogojevic
8th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Gabriel Rukavina
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jakov Filipovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
79'
Event
Bruno Bogojevic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
76'
Event
Théo Epailly → Jurica Prsir
5th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Gabriel Rukavina → Toni Fruk
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Noel Bodetic → Christian Ouguehi Legbo
4th Substitution
Event
Bruno Bogojevic
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
70'
Event
Jurica Prsir
GoalkeeperSave
68'
Event
Ante Erceg
Penalty awarded
65'
56'
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei → Branko Pavic
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Tiago Dantas → Tornike Morchiladze
3rd Substitution
Event
Bruno Bogojevic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
46'
Event
Amer Gojak → Samuele Vignato
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ante Erceg
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gorica exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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