Gent vs Zulte-Waregem Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Planet Group Arena Fri, 13 Mar - 7:45 PM
Pro League
Gent GNT
2 Winner 0
Zulte-Waregem ZUL
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 7:45 PM
Max Dean - 38'
Wilfried Kanga - 68' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Gent securing a 2-0 home victory over Zulte-Waregem. Gent established their advantage early, carrying a 1-0 lead into half-time before adding a second goal to seal the result. Entering the fixture, Gent was the narrow pre-match favorite with a 40.8% implied probability of winning, compared to a 26.6% chance for a draw and Zulte-Waregem's 32.7%. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these market expectations. However, Gent's dominant final margin created a significant statistical deviation in their favor. Play on the pitch was highly competitive, which was reflected by a nearly perfectly even possession split. Gent slightly edged the ball control with 51% possession, leaving Zulte-Waregem with 49%. While expected goals (xG) data was not available to measure underlying chance creation for either side, the overall efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match dynamics. Gent simply made the most of their time on the ball to secure a comfortable multi-goal cushion. The match concluded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. With no sending-offs to alter the tactical landscape, Gent successfully managed their lead to see out the expected win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gent showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Bourdeaud'hui
S. Bourdeaud'hui
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
B. Bijnens
B. Bijnens
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
J. Van Dyck
J. Van Dyck
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
W. De Cremer
W. De Cremer
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
VS
Zulte-Waregem S. Vandenbroeck
S. Vandenbroeck
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Genk Rank: 76 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 73 W
OH Leuven Rank: 66 L
La Louvière Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: 67 L
Mechelen Rank: 71 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Dender Rank: 62 W
Westerlo Rank: 68 L
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 10 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gent
40.77%
Draw
26.55%
Away Zulte-Waregem
32.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.36
54.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gent
Zulte-Waregem
Power Score
71.36
54.05
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
161
383

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Zulte-Waregem — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gent Zulte-Waregem

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zulte-Waregem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gent ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zulte-Waregem
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.08
14.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.90
26.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gent +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Zulte-Waregem -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gent
Zulte-Waregem
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gent ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zulte-Waregem
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gent Zulte-Waregem
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gent Zulte-Waregem
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gent
Zulte-Waregem
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gent GNT Home
7 matches
Zulte-Waregem ZUL Away
Match Record
5
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
20
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:15:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
D. Roef
Belgium
33 (C) D. Roef
D. Hashioka
Japan
4 D. Hashioka
M. Volckaert
Belgium
57 M. Volckaert
S. Van der Heyden
Belgium
44 S. Van der Heyden
J. Duverne
Substitution
Haiti
29 J. Duverne
T. De Vlieger
Belgium
27 T. De Vlieger
L. da Silva Lopes
Portugal
22 L. da Silva Lopes
M. Skóraś
Poland
8 M. Skóraś
H. Hong
Substitution
South Korea
24 H. Hong
M. Dean
Substitution
England
21 M. Dean
A. Kanga
Substitution
France
7 A. Kanga
B. Gabriel
Belgium
13 B. Gabriel
L. Willen
Belgium
31 L. Willen
J. Kiilerich
Denmark
5 J. Kiilerich
B. De Jaegere
Substitution
45 B. De Jaegere
Y. Cappelle
Substitution
Belgium
55 Y. Cappelle
T. Claes
Substitution
Belgium
8 T. Claes
D. Asare
Belgium
40 D. Asare
W. Paugain
Substitution
France
12 W. Paugain
J. Erenbjerg
Denmark
10 (C) J. Erenbjerg
J. Amankwaah Opoku
22 J. Amankwaah Opoku
A. Ementa
Denmark
18 A. Ementa

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Planet Group Arena
Capacity
20185
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Bryan Bijnens
Jonas Van Dyck
Wesli De Cremer

Statistics

Possession
GNT
52%
ZUL
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 5
46 Dangerous attacks 46
51 Possession 49
2 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Dribble Attempts 16
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
19 Successful Headers 19
5 Goal Kicks 6
22 Throwins 22
4 Successful Dribbles 9
4 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 1
41 Ball Safe 53
0 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

121 Attacks 93
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

430 Passes 407
23 Successful Long Passes 20
82 Successful Passes Percentage 76
354 Successful Passes 310
49 Long Passes 51
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
7 Key Passes 3

Defensive

18 Interceptions 13
13 Tackles 8
1 Saves 3

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

33
Davy Roef
Davy Roef (C) Goalkeeper
7.36
4
Daiki Hashioka
Daiki Hashioka Defender
6.49
44
Siebe Van der Heyden
Siebe Van der Heyden Defender
7.12
57
Matties Volckaert
Matties Volckaert Defender
7.19
8
Michal Skoras
Michal Skoras Midfielder
7.56
22
Leonardo Lopes
Leonardo Lopes Midfielder
6.88
27
Tibe De Vlieger
Tibe De Vlieger Midfielder
7.22
29
Jean-Kévin Duverne
Jean-Kévin Duverne Midfielder
6.67
35
Gilles De Meyer
Gilles De Meyer
Defender83'
6.57
7
Wilfried Kanga
Wilfried Kanga Attacker
7.53
75
Ibrahima Cissé
Ibrahima Cissé
Attacker83'
6.43
21
Max Dean
Max Dean Attacker
7.97
45
Hyllarion Goore
Hyllarion Goore
Attacker83'
6.49
24
Hyun-seok Hong
Hyun-seok Hong Attacker
6.97
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
Abdelkahar Kadri
Midfielder61'
6.47
Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

13
Brent Gabriel
Brent Gabriel Goalkeeper
6.56
5
Jakob Kiilerich
Jakob Kiilerich Defender
6.36
31
Lukas Willen
Lukas Willen Defender
6.53
45
Benoit De Jaegere
Benoit De Jaegere Defender
6.29
4
Laurent Lemoine
Laurent Lemoine
Defender46'
6.51
8
Thomas Claes
Thomas Claes Midfielder
6.81
9
Jelle Vossen
Jelle Vossen
Attacker69'
6.48
12
Wilguens Paugain
Wilguens Paugain Midfielder
6.73
39
Marley Ake
Marley Ake
Midfielder46'
6.72
40
Dirk Asare
Dirk Asare Midfielder
6.55
55
Yannick Cappelle
Yannick Cappelle Midfielder
6.43
30
Malick Mbaye
Malick Mbaye
Attacker83'
6.39
10
Jeppe Erenbjerg
Jeppe Erenbjerg (C) Attacker
6.66
18
Anosike Ementa
Anosike Ementa Attacker
7.01
22
Joseph Okopu
Joseph Okopu Attacker
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Siebe Van der Heyden
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Ibrahima Cissé → Wilfried Kanga
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Hyllarion Goore → Max Dean
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Gilles De Meyer → Jean-Kévin Duverne
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Malick Mbaye → Yannick Cappelle
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Jelle Vossen → Thomas Claes
4th Substitution
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
68'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri → Hyun-seok Hong
3rd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Dirk Asare
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Jeppe Erenbjerg
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Tibe De Vlieger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
47'
46'
Event
Marley Ake → Wilguens Paugain
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Laurent Lemoine → Benoit De Jaegere
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Max Dean
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
38'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gent exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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