Gençlerbirliği vs Göztepe Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Eryaman Stadyumu Sat, 4 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Gençlerbirliği GSK
0 Winner 2
Göztepe GOZ
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
|
Goal
Novatus Miroshi - 39' (P)
Malcom Bokele - 68' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Gençlerbirliği and Göztepe has officially finished, with the visiting side claiming a 2-0 full-time victory. Göztepe took control early, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time before adding a second goal to seal the win. The outcome aligned seamlessly with pre-match market expectations, which designated Göztepe as the stronger team with a 41% win probability, compared to a 30.8% chance of a draw and a 28.2% likelihood of a home win. Despite the predicted victory, Göztepe produced a significant deviation of 59% relative to standard performance baselines. Their scoring efficiency shift remained exactly in line with projections, allowing them to confidently put away their opportunities. The match was also devoid of any major disciplinary impacts, as neither side received a red card. The underlying match dynamics revealed a stark contrast in tactical approaches. Gençlerbirliği dominated the ball, maintaining 63% possession, while Göztepe managed the game effectively with just a 37% share. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to evaluate whether the final outcome was consistent with the actual quality of scoring chances created by either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Göztepe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Çelebi
M. Çelebi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Y. Kendirciler
Y. Kendirciler
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
K. Ersoy
K. Ersoy
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
B. Kolak
B. Kolak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
VS
Göztepe S. Stoilov
S. Stoilov
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Konyaspor Rank: 67 L
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 63 L
Rizespor Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 63 D
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
Kayserispor Rank: 63 D
Konyaspor Rank: 68 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gençlerbirliği
28.24%
Draw
30.78%
Away Göztepe
40.98%

Movement

Changes since opening
Gençlerbirliği
-0.16%
Draw
+0.07%
Göztepe
+0.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.37
73.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gençlerbirliği
Göztepe
Power Score
56.37
73.35
League Position
14
5
Global Rank
341
132

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Göztepe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gençlerbirliği Göztepe

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Göztepe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Göztepe
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.90
29.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.46
21.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gençlerbirliği -0.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Göztepe +0.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Göztepe
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gençlerbirliği ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Göztepe
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gençlerbirliği Göztepe
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Göztepe
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gençlerbirliği
Göztepe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gençlerbirliği
vs
Göztepe
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gençlerbirliği Göztepe
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gençlerbirliği 0.20
Göztepe 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gençlerbirliği Göztepe
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gençlerbirliği 0.05
Göztepe 0.00
Gençlerbirliği
Göztepe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gençlerbirliği GSK Home
7 matches
Göztepe GOZ Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
4
Goals
16
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
16
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:01:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
M. Silva Velho
Portugal
24 M. Silva Velho
P. Almeida Lopes Pereira
Portugal
13 P. Almeida Lopes Pereira
D. Goutas
Greece
6 D. Goutas
Ž. Žužek
Slovenia
4 Ž. Žužek
T. da Silva
Brazil
2 T. da Silva
A. Dele-Bashiru
Substitution
Nigeria
15 A. Dele-Bashiru
F. Tongya Heubang
Italy
70 F. Tongya Heubang
S. Koita
Substitution
Mali
22 S. Koita
O. Ülgün
Substitution
Turkey
35 O. Ülgün
H. Chukwuemeka Onyekuru
Substitution
Nigeria
7 H. Chukwuemeka Onyekuru
M. Niang
Substitution
Senegal
29 M. Niang
M. Lis
Poland
1 M. Lis
M. Mputu
Cameroon
26 M. Mputu
H. dos Santos
Brazil
5 H. dos Santos
A. Godói Santos
Brazil
3 A. Godói Santos
M. Cherni
France
15 M. Cherni
N. Dismas
Tanzania
20 N. Dismas
A. Dennis
Substitution
Nigeria
30 A. Dennis
A. Kurtulan
Turkey
2 A. Kurtulan
A. Antunes
Substitution
Switzerland
8 A. Antunes
J. de Carvalho Costa
Substitution
Brazil
39 J. de Carvalho Costa
J. Marinho dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
19 J. Marinho dos Santos

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Eryaman Stadyumu
Capacity
20560
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mücahid Adem Çelebi
Yusuf Adnan Kendirciler
Kerem Ersoy
Batuhan Kolak

Statistics

Possession
GSK
58%
GOZ
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 3
56 Dangerous attacks 38
63 Possession 37
6 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
27 Successful Headers 26
21 Throwins 13
6 Dribble Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
3 Successful Dribbles 2
0 Penalties 2
2 Injuries 1
5 Goal Attempts 4
5 Goal Kicks 7
76 Ball Safe 74

Attacking

93 Attacks 85
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 70
369 Passes 227
301 Successful Passes 158
41 Long Passes 56
7 Key Passes 6
22 Successful Long Passes 29
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

11 Tackles 13
57 Duels Won 48
4 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 0

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 14
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
2
Thalisson
Thalisson Defender
4
Zan Zuzek
Zan Zuzek Defender
6
Dimitrios Goutas
Dimitrios Goutas Defender
13
Pedro Pereira
Pedro Pereira Defender
7
Henry Onyekuru
Henry Onyekuru Midfielder
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Attacker73'
15
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Tom Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
99
Cihan Çanak
Cihan Çanak
Attacker83'
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Midfielder
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré
Attacker73'
35
Oğulcan Ülgün
Oğulcan Ülgün Midfielder
23
Matej Hanousek
Matej Hanousek
Defender46'
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Midfielder
29
M'Baye Niang
M'Baye Niang Attacker
11
Göktan Gürpüz
Göktan Gürpüz
Midfielder73'
Referee : Batuhan Kolak

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper
3
Allan Godói
Allan Godói Defender
5
Héliton
Héliton Defender
26
Malcom Bokele
Malcom Bokele Defender
2
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Arda Okan Kurtulan Midfielder
15
Amin Cherni
Amin Cherni Midfielder
20
Novatus Miroshi
Novatus Miroshi Midfielder
30
Anthony Dennis
Anthony Dennis Midfielder
6
M. Mohammed
M. Mohammed
Midfielder90+3'
8
Alexis Antunes
Alexis Antunes Attacker
10
Filip Krastev
Filip Krastev
Midfielder46'
19
Jeh
Jeh Attacker
9
Juan
Juan
Attacker62'
39
Janderson
Janderson Attacker
14
Guilherme Luiz
Guilherme Luiz
Attacker88'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Efkan Bekiroğlu → Filip Krastev
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
M. Mohammed → Anthony Dennis
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Guilherme Luiz → Janderson
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Janderson
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Cihan Çanak → Tom Dele-Bashiru
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Adama Traoré → Sékou Koïta
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Metehan Mimaroğlu → Henry Onyekuru
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Göktan Gürpüz → M'Baye Niang
4th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Malcom Bokele
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Dimitrios Goutas
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
67'
66'
Event
Janderson
Penalty awarded
62'
Event
Juan → Jeh
3rd Substitution
Event
Volkan Demirel
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
55'
Event
Zan Zuzek
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
54'
54'
Event
Malcom Bokele
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
50'
Event
Héliton
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Matej Hanousek → Oğulcan Ülgün
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Filip Krastev → Alexis Antunes
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Anthony Dennis
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pedro Pereira
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
39'
39'
Event
Novatus Miroshi
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
37'
Event
Amin Cherni
Penalty awarded

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Göztepe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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