Gaziantep F.K. vs Alanyaspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Gaziantep Stadyumu Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
1 – 1
Alanyaspor ANY
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Kacper Kozlowski - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
İbrahim Kaya - 42'

CONTEXT

The match between Gaziantep F.K. and Alanyaspor has officially finished in a 1-1 draw. Alanyaspor initially took control in the first half, heading into the break with a 1-0 lead. However, Gaziantep F.K. fought back in the second half to secure a point, dictating the tempo with 58% possession compared to Alanyaspor's 42%. Heading into the fixture, Alanyaspor were narrow favorites with a 38.1% pre-match win probability, while a home win for Gaziantep F.K. stood at 34.2% and a draw was the least likely expected outcome at 27.7%. Because the stronger away side ultimately dropped points, the result constituted a significant deviation from pre-match expectations for Alanyaspor. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market projections. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this contest, making it impossible to determine if the result aligned with the underlying chance creation. Despite this missing data, the teams' offensive efficiency shift was recorded as being exactly in line with typical standards. Furthermore, the flow of the game was unaffected by major disciplinary events, as the match concluded cleanly with zero red cards issued to either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alanyaspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Tonusluoğlu
D. Tonusluoğlu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Temel
M. Temel
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Karaoğlan
A. Karaoğlan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
S. Altay
S. Altay
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Gaziantep F.K. B. Yılmaz
B. Yılmaz
VS
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 D
Samsunspor Rank: 71 D
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 W
Göztepe Rank: 73 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 64 D
Galatasaray Rank: 89 L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Konyaspor Rank: 68 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gaziantep F.K.
34.19%
Draw
27.71%
Away Alanyaspor
38.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.69
69.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gaziantep F.K.
Alanyaspor
Power Score
66.69
69.85
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
278
191

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gaziantep F.K. Alanyaspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gaziantep F.K. ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alanyaspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.62
23.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.10
28.62
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gaziantep F.K. +0.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Alanyaspor -0.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
Alanyaspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gaziantep F.K. ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alanyaspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gaziantep F.K. Alanyaspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K. Alanyaspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gaziantep F.K.
Alanyaspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gaziantep F.K.
vs
Alanyaspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gaziantep F.K. Alanyaspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gaziantep F.K. 0.47
Alanyaspor 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gaziantep F.K. Alanyaspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gaziantep F.K. 0.03
Alanyaspor 0.03
Gaziantep F.K.
Alanyaspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Home
13 matches
Alanyaspor ANY Away
Match Record
3
Wins
8
2
Draws
2
8
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
11
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Z. Görgen
Turkey
20 Z. Görgen
N. Sangare
Turkey
30 N. Sangare
T. Sanuç
Turkey
23 T. Sanuç
A. Kızıldağ
Substitution
Turkey
4 A. Kızıldağ
L. Pérez Maqueda
Substitution
Spain
2 L. Pérez Maqueda
K. Kozłowski
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
M. Kabasakal
Turkey
6 M. Kabasakal
D. Camara
Substitution
Ivory Coast
3 D. Camara
C. Lungoyi
Substitution
Switzerland
11 C. Lungoyi
M. Bayo
Substitution
Guinea
9 M. Bayo
A. Maxim
Romania
44 A. Maxim
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
?. Akdağ
Romania
50 ?. Akdağ
F. Aliti
Kosovo
5 F. Aliti
N. Reis Lima
Portugal
3 N. Reis Lima
R. Pereira Duarte
Brazil
11 R. Pereira Duarte
N. Janvier
Substitution
France
17 N. Janvier
G. Makouta
Substitution
France
42 G. Makouta
F. Hadërgjonaj
Kosovo
94 F. Hadërgjonaj
U. Hwang
Substitution
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
I. Hagi
Substitution
Romania
14 I. Hagi
G. Yalçın
Substitution
Turkey
10 G. Yalçın

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gaziantep Stadyumu
Capacity
33502
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Direnç Tonusluoğlu
Murat Temel
Atilla Karaoğlan
Selahattin Altay

Statistics

Possession
Gaziantep F.K.
55%
ANY
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 3
32 Dangerous attacks 34
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 2
20 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 10
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
16 Throwins 28
9 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
10 Goal Attempts 5
7 Successful Headers 12
1 Injuries 2
90 Ball Safe 109
13 Dribble Attempts 14

Attacking

112 Attacks 64

Possession

13 Key Passes 6
88 Successful Passes Percentage 79
428 Successful Passes 280
489 Passes 355
44 Long Passes 54
16 Successful Long Passes 25
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

48 Duels Won 49
16 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 14
2 Saves 4

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 8
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

16 Fouls 20
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

20
Zafer Görgen
Zafer Görgen Goalkeeper
4
Arda Kızıldağ
Arda Kızıldağ Defender
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena
Defender76'
23
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
Tayyip Talha Sanuç Defender
30
N. Sangaré
N. Sangaré Defender
2
Luis Pérez
Luis Pérez Midfielder
17
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama
Midfielder76'
3
Drissa Camara
Drissa Camara Midfielder
77
Kévin Rodrigues
Kévin Rodrigues
Defender52'
6
Melih Kabasakal
Melih Kabasakal Midfielder
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Midfielder
11
Christopher Lungoyi
Christopher Lungoyi Midfielder
70
Denis Drăguș
Denis Drăguș
Attacker89'
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
32
Yusuf Kabadayi
Yusuf Kabadayi
Attacker46'
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim Attacker
Referee : Atilla Karaoğlan

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
3
Nuno Lima
Nuno Lima Defender
5
Fidan Aliti
Fidan Aliti Defender
50
Ümit Akdağ
Ümit Akdağ Defender
11
Ruan
Ruan Midfielder
17
Nicolas Janvier
Nicolas Janvier Midfielder
58
Maestro
Maestro
Midfielder70'
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta Midfielder
7
Efecan Karaca
Efecan Karaca
Midfielder82'
94
Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın Attacker
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin
Midfielder69'
14
Ianis Hagi
Ianis Hagi Attacker
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya
Attacker40'
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
9
Steve Mounié
Steve Mounié
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Efecan Karaca
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Denis Drăguș → Christopher Lungoyi
10th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Steve Mounié → Ui-jo Hwang
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Efecan Karaca → Gaius Makouta
8th Substitution
Event
Kévin Rodrigues
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Christopher Lungoyi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Myenty Abena → Arda Kızıldağ
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Karamba Gassama → Luis Pérez
7th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Maestro → Nicolas Janvier
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Enes Keskin → Güven Yalçın
4th Substitution
Event
Kacper Kozlowski
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
63'
61'
Event
Florent Hadergjonaj
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kévin Rodrigues → Drissa Camara
3rd Substitution
52'
Event
Yusuf Kabadayi → Mohamed Bayo
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
İbrahim Kaya
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'
Event
İbrahim Kaya
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
40'
Event
İbrahim Kaya → Ianis Hagi
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Alanyaspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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