FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sat, 7 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
2 – 2
VfB Stuttgart VFB
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
Jae-sung Lee - 39'
Danny da Costa - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Ermedin Demirovic - 76'
Deniz Undav - 77'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FSV Mainz 05 1–2 VfB Stuttgart. The result saw VfB Stuttgart take the points. VfB Stuttgart showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: VfB Stuttgart showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Jöllenbeck
M. Jöllenbeck
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
E. Müller
E. Müller
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
R. Rohde
R. Rohde
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
K. Oldhfer
K. Oldhfer
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: W
RB Leipzig Rank: W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
FC Köln Rank: L
Heidenheim Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: D
Werder Bremen Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 9 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
26.6%
Draw
24.68%
Away VfB Stuttgart
48.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
32
62.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
Power Score
32
62.67
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 VfB Stuttgart

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FSV Mainz 05

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

VfB Stuttgart

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FSV Mainz 05 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfB Stuttgart
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
56.05
21.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.53
56.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FSV Mainz 05 +3.27 Efficiency Index
vs
VfB Stuttgart -3.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FSV Mainz 05 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfB Stuttgart
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FSV Mainz 05 VfB Stuttgart
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FSV Mainz 05 VfB Stuttgart
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
11 matches
VfB Stuttgart VFB Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
1
Goals
12
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
12
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:05:28+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Attendance
33305
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matthias Jöllenbeck
Eric Müller
René Rohde
Konrad Oldhfer

Statistics

Possession
M05
42%
VFB
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 4
66 Dangerous attacks 47
38 Possession 62
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

20 Throwins 16
22 Successful Headers 19
5 Goal Attempts 3
9 Goal Kicks 8
46 Ball Safe 61
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
8 Dribble Attempts 11
3 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Assists 2
2 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

77 Attacks 116
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

229 Successful Passes 453
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
33 Successful Long Passes 25
72 Successful Passes Percentage 84
319 Passes 537
11 Key Passes 11
68 Long Passes 49

Defensive

2 Saves 3
13 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 6
28 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

7 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Jeff Chabot
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
William Bøving → Paul Nebel
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Armindo Sieb → Jae-sung Lee
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Nikolas Veratschnig → Danny da Costa
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Danny da Costa
Header / 4th Goal
90+1'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Silvan Widmer
7th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Jeremy Arévalo → Deniz Undav
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Ramon Hendriks → Maximilian Mittelstädt
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Tiago Tomás
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
77'
Event
Deniz Undav
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Ermedin Demirovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
Event
Tiago Tomás → Chris Führich
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Finn Jeltsch → Luca Jaquez
3rd Substitution
Event
Silas → Sheraldo Becker
2nd Substitution
74'
65'
Event
Nikolas Nartey → Lorenz Assignon
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jae-sung Lee
Header / 1st Goal
39'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Armindo Sieb replaces Lee Jae-Sung.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 has equalized against VfB Stuttgart, making it 2-2. Danny da Costa scores with a close-range header right in front of the goal.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jeff Chabot of VfB Stuttgart has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Jeff Chabot from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nelson Weiper of 1. FSV Mainz 05 heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The assist came from William Bøving, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
Phillipp Mwene of 1. FSV Mainz 05 strikes the crossbar with a close-range header.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Nelson Weiper of 1. FSV Mainz 05 had a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Stefan Posch.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nikolas Veratschnig is coming on to replace Danny da Costa.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart.
90
Update Update
Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 was awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: William Bøving comes on to replace Paul Nebel.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Danny da Costa from 1. FSV Mainz 05 fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Phillip Tietz.
86
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Tiago Tomás from VfB Stuttgart fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Jamie Leweling.
86
Update Update
Lee Jae-Sung from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
86
Update Update
Nikolas Nartey from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Jeremy Arévalo from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nelson Weiper comes on to replace Silvan Widmer.
85
Update Update
Stefan Posch committed a foul against a player from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Jeremy Arévalo replaces Deniz Undav.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Ramon Hendriks comes on to replace Maximilian Mittelstädt.
82
Update Update
Tiago Tomás from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tiago Tomás of VfB Stuttgart has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
82
Update Update
Kaishu Sano from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Tiago Tomás from VfB Stuttgart was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
81
Update Update
Tiago Tomás from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
80
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
79
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Danny da Costa of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 1, VfB Stuttgart 2. Deniz Undav scores for VfB Stuttgart with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Tiago Tomás, who set him up with a precise through ball during a quick counterattack.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's 1-1 between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart. Ermedin Demirovic scores for VfB Stuttgart with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Deniz Undav.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Tiago Tomás replaces Chris Führich.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Finn Jeltsch comes on to replace Luca Jaquez.
75
Update Update
Atakan Karazor of VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
75
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Silas Katompa Mvumpa replaces Sheraldo Becker.
73
Update Update
Phillipp Mwene from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
73
Update Update
Nikolas Nartey from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart fires a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Nikolas Nartey.
69
Update Update
Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Jeff Chabot from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Nikolas Nartey from VfB Stuttgart attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
66
Attempt Attempt
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 strikes the right post with a left-footed shot taken from the center of the box.
65
Attempt Attempt
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 strikes the right post with a left-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area.
65
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Lee Jae-Sung from 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has his right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area blocked. The assist came from Sheraldo Becker.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Nikolas Nartey replaces Lorenz Assignon.
64
Update Update
Stefan Posch from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic of VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Stefan Posch from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic of VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
61
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
61
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after a play that resulted in a deflection off Lee Jae-Sung.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Lee Jae-Sung allowed the ball to go out.
55
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Sheraldo Becker from 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Paul Nebel.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a play by Alexander Nübel resulted in the ball going out.
53
Update Update
Atakan Karazor of VfB Stuttgart has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Phillip Tietz committed a foul against a player from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
51
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Chris Führich from VfB Stuttgart attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
50
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Kaishu Sano from 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
48
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Chris Führich.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with 1. FSV Mainz 05 leading VfB Stuttgart 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Jeff Chabot from VfB Stuttgart.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at 1-0 in favor of 1. FSV Mainz 05 against VfB Stuttgart.
42
Update Update
Silvan Widmer of 1. FSV Mainz 05 was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
42
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against VfB Stuttgart. Lee Jae-Sung scores with a header from close range, directing the ball into the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Danny da Costa, who headed the ball after a corner kick.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a play that resulted in Alexander Nübel giving it away.
38
Update Update
Opportunity goes begging. Lee Jae-Sung of 1. FSV Mainz 05 heads the ball from the center of the box, but it drifts just to the left of the goal. The assist came from Sheraldo Becker.
37
Update Update
Deniz Undav committed a foul against VfB Stuttgart.
37
Update Update
Danny da Costa from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Phillip Tietz of 1. FSV Mainz 05 took a right-footed shot from over 35 yards out that nearly found the target, but ultimately went wide.
32
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Phillipp Mwene from 1. FSV Mainz 05 took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Paul Nebel, who delivered a cross.
30
Update Update
A new offensive effort unfolds as Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempts a header from the right side of the six-yard box. However, Alexander Nübel, the goalkeeper for VfB Stuttgart, makes a crucial save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Sheraldo Becker, who delivered a well-placed cross.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a deflection off Alexander Nübel.
28
Update Update
Alexander Nübel from VfB Stuttgart was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Silvan Widmer of 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a defensive play by Luca Jaquez.
26
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Paul Nebel of 1. FSV Mainz 05 fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The setup came from Sheraldo Becker, who delivered a cross.
24
Update Update
Offside Alert - 1. FSV Mainz 05. Sheraldo Becker has been caught offside.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jamie Leweling of VfB Stuttgart took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that narrowly missed to the left. The assist came from Angelo Stiller, who delivered a cross.
23
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Deniz Undav committed a foul against VfB Stuttgart.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a defensive play by Luca Jaquez.
20
Update Update
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Alexander Nübel from VfB Stuttgart was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jeff Chabot of VfB Stuttgart takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Daniel Batz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 makes a great save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal. The assist was provided by Luca Jaquez.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Danny da Costa allowed the ball to go out.
14
Update Update
Offside - 1. FSV Mainz 05. Phillip Tietz is caught in an offside position.
13
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic from VfB Stuttgart has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Jeff Chabot from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Phillipp Mwene allowed the ball to go out.
5
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Ermedin Demirovic of VfB Stuttgart had a header from close range inside the six-yard box but sent it soaring over the bar. The assist came from Maximilian Mittelstädt, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
4
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Daniel Batz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top left corner. The assist came from Deniz Undav.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after a play that resulted in Daniel Batz conceding.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Dominik Kohr allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: VfB Stuttgart exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Bundesliga View all league clusters