FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Versus
FC Bayern München FCB
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Bundesliga regular season at Mewa Arena, 10th-placed FSV Mainz 05 face league leaders FC Bayern München, a matchup highlighting a stark contrast in team strengths. Bayern boast a superior power score of 49.29 to Mainz's 32.44, granting them a decisive 16.9-point advantage that underscores their dominance. Form scores are closer, with Bayern at 30.94 edging Mainz's 28.94, suggesting the hosts remain competitive recently. Bayern's top-table position reflects squad depth and consistency, while Mainz must leverage home advantage. Limited data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces adds intrigue, but Bayern's overall edge in open play positions them strongly. Mainz's defensive structure will be tested early.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FC Bayern München hold a 16.9-point power advantage over 10th-placed FSV Mainz 05, who host the league leaders at Mewa Arena.
  • Form: Recent form scores show FC Bayern München slightly ahead at 30.94 compared to FSV Mainz 05's 28.94.
  • Squad: Bayern's higher power score of 49.29 indicates superior squad depth versus Mainz's 32.44.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence with no xG data available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to lack of data.
  • Market: FSV Mainz 05 17% (Δ+0%) | Draw 20.2% (Δ+0%) | FC Bayern München 62.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.43
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: D
St. Pauli Rank: W
SC Freiburg Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 25
25
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
16.98%
Draw
20.17%
Away FC Bayern München
62.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.44
49.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
Power Score
32.44
49.29
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 FC Bayern München

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
37 matches
FC Bayern München FCB Away
Match Record
8
Wins
25
4
Draws
4
25
Losses
8
Goals
43
Goals Scored
104
104
Goals Conceded
43
-61
Goal Difference
+61
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T02:11:26+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
27
Robin Zentner
Robin Zentner Goalkeeper
1
Lasse Finn Rieß
Lasse Finn Rieß Goalkeeper
21
Danny Vieira da Costa
Danny Vieira da Costa Defender
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
2
Philipp Mwene
Philipp Mwene Defender
5
Maxim Leitsch
Maxim Leitsch Defender
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci Defender
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Defender
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen
Andreas Hanche-Olsen Defender
47
Maxim Bora Dal
Maxim Bora Dal Defender
18
Kasey Bos
Kasey Bos Defender
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7
Jae-Sung Lee
Jae-Sung Lee Midfielder
15
Lennard Patrick Maloney
Lennard Patrick Maloney Midfielder
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
28
Niklas Tauer
Niklas Tauer Midfielder
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig Midfielder
42
Daniel Gleiber
Daniel Gleiber Midfielder
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
17
Benedict Hollerbach
Benedict Hollerbach Attacker
26
Silla Wamangituka
Silla Wamangituka Attacker
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb Attacker
14
William Bøving Vick
William Bøving Vick Attacker
44
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper Attacker
16
Stefan Bell
Stefan Bell Coach

Squad ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
26
Sven Ulreich
Sven Ulreich Goalkeeper
40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig Goalkeeper
48
Leon Klanac
Leon Klanac Goalkeeper
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
2
Dayotchanculle Upamecano
Dayotchanculle Upamecano Defender
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies Defender
3
Min-Jae Kim
Min-Jae Kim Defender
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
22
Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro
Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro Midfielder
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
45
Aleksandar Pavlović
Aleksandar Pavlović Midfielder
20
Tom Bischof
Tom Bischof Midfielder
42
Lennart Karl
Lennart Karl Midfielder
39
Bara Joseph Sapoko Ndiaye
Bara Joseph Sapoko Ndiaye Midfielder
7
Serge Gnabry
Serge Gnabry Attacker
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Attacker
14
Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda
Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda Attacker
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Attacker
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker

CONCLUSION

FC Bayern München enter as clear favorites, their power and league-leading status poised to overwhelm FSV Mainz 05 despite the hosts' home turf. Mainz's form keeps them in contention for an upset, but Bayern's structural superiority should control possession and create chances. Without detailed set-piece or efficiency insights, Bayern's transition play and squad quality likely tip the scales. Expect a professional away win, though Mainz could frustrate if they tighten defensively. The 16.9-point gap reinforces Bayern's path to victory in this uneven contest.

Related Football Previews