Fredrikstad vs KFUM Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 4:00 PM
Eliteserien
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
3 Winner 1
KFUM KFUM
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Simen Hestnes - 10' (Own Goal)
Rocco Shein - 19'
Johannes Núñez - 31'
Goal
|
Goal
Teodor Berg Haltvik - 23'

CONTEXT

The match between Fredrikstad and KFUM has officially finished with a full-time score of 0-0. Heading into the fixture, Fredrikstad were considered the stronger team, holding a 41.8% pre-match market probability of victory. KFUM sat at just a 29.4% chance to win, with a draw priced at 28.7%. Consequently, the goalless draw resulted in a significant deviation against Fredrikstad, and the final outcome ultimately failed to align with the expectations of the pre-match market. Despite their underdog status, KFUM dictated the tempo of the game, dominating possession with 65% of the ball while restricting Fredrikstad to just 35%. The visitors also created the better scoring opportunities, edging

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fredrikstad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Fredrikstad A. Hagen
A. Hagen
VS
KFUM J. Moesgaard
J. Moesgaard
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø Rank: 65 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 L
Viking Rank: 76 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 62 W
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Sandefjord Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: 50 W
Sandefjord Rank: 61 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 L
Brann Rank: 67 D
Haugesund Rank: 43 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 62 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fredrikstad
41.84%
Draw
28.74%
Away KFUM
29.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.67
57.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredrikstad
KFUM
Power Score
62.67
57.85
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
399
547

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score
KFUM — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fredrikstad KFUM

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

KFUM

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fredrikstad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy KFUM
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.43
23.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.00
47.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fredrikstad +2.50 Efficiency Index
vs
KFUM -2.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredrikstad
KFUM
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fredrikstad
vs
KFUM
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fredrikstad KFUM
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredrikstad KFUM
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Fredrikstad
KFUM
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Home
4 matches
KFUM KFUM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
6
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Børsheim
Norway
77 M. Børsheim
D. Eid
Substitution
Norway
16 D. Eid
S. Owusu
Substitution
Norway
28 (C) S. Owusu
U. Fredriksen
Norway
12 U. Fredriksen
F. Holmé
Norway
4 F. Holmé
S. Sørløkk
Norway
13 S. Sørløkk
O. Øhlenschlæger
Substitution
Denmark
20 O. Øhlenschlæger
L. Owusu
Substitution
Ghana
24 L. Owusu
R. Shein
Estonia
21 R. Shein
H. Skogvold
Norway
23 H. Skogvold
J. Nunez Godoy
Substitution
Norway
10 J. Nunez Godoy
K. Bąkowski
Poland
12 K. Bąkowski
E. Franke Saunes
Norway
19 E. Franke Saunes
F. Berglie
Norway
5 F. Berglie
D. Schneider
Norway
2 D. Schneider
J. Lange Hjorth
Substitution
Norway
16 J. Lange Hjorth
S. Hestnes
Norway
8 (C) S. Hestnes
T. Sørås
Substitution
Norway
27 T. Sørås
S. Sjøkvist
Substitution
Norway
21 S. Sjøkvist
B. Kristensen
Substitution
Norway
22 B. Kristensen
T. Haltvik
Norway
17 T. Haltvik
M. Vinjor
Substitution
Norway
9 M. Vinjor

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion
Capacity
12565
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Svein Tore Sinnes
Line Cathrine Nymoen
Magnus Lundberg
Abdulhadi Al Fahad

Statistics

Possession
Fredrikstad
41%
KFUM
59%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 8
52 Dangerous attacks 39
35 Possession 65
5 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 9
21 Throwins 24
10 Dribble Attempts 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
5 Successful Dribbles 4
78 Ball Safe 98
9 Goal Attempts 10
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

101 Attacks 100
4 Counter Attacks 5
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

91 Long Passes 56
186 Successful Passes 460
63 Successful Passes Percentage 81
34 Successful Long Passes 16
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
295 Passes 571
8 Key Passes 11

Defensive

18 Tackles 12
6 Saves 4
13 Interceptions 9

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

77
Martin Børsheim
Martin Børsheim Goalkeeper
7.65
4
Fredrik Holmé
Fredrik Holmé Defender
7.52
12
Ulrik Fredriksen
Ulrik Fredriksen Defender
7.21
13
Sondre Sørløkk
Sondre Sørløkk Defender
6.79
16
Daniel Eid
Daniel Eid Defender
6.88
19
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Defender90+3'
28
Solomon Owusu
Solomon Owusu (C) Defender
6.51
5
Simen Rafn
Simen Rafn
Defender66'
6.45
20
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger Midfielder
6.6
2
Kenneth Ikechukwu
Kenneth Ikechukwu
Defender90+3'
21
Rocco Shein
Rocco Shein Midfielder
7.81
23
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Henrik Langaas Skogvold Midfielder
6.7
24
Leonard Owusu
Leonard Owusu Midfielder
7.15
6
Samuel Leach Holm
Samuel Leach Holm
Midfielder82'
6.53
10
Johannes Núñez
Johannes Núñez Attacker
7.43
9
S. Laghzaoui
S. Laghzaoui
Midfielder46'
6.8
Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

12
Krzysztof Bakowski
Krzysztof Bakowski Goalkeeper
6.7
2
Daniel Schneider
Daniel Schneider Defender
6.95
5
Fredrik Berglie
Fredrik Berglie Defender
6.61
19
Eirik Saunes
Eirik Saunes Defender
7
8
Simen Hestnes
Simen Hestnes (C) Midfielder
6.32
16
Jonas Lange Hjorth
Jonas Lange Hjorth Midfielder
6.57
14
Håkon Helland Hoseth
Håkon Helland Hoseth
Defender46'
6.48
21
S. Sjøkvist
S. Sjøkvist Midfielder
6.86
33
Amin Nouri
Amin Nouri
Defender75'
6.46
27
T. Sørås
T. Sørås Midfielder
6.18
7
Robin Rasch
Robin Rasch
Midfielder60'
6.98
9
Martin Tangen Vinjor
Martin Tangen Vinjor Attacker
7.36
18
Rasmus Eggen Vinge
Rasmus Eggen Vinge
Attacker60'
6.39
17
Teodor Berg Haltvik
Teodor Berg Haltvik Attacker
6.82
22
Bjørn Martin Kristensen
Bjørn Martin Kristensen Attacker
6.46
28
Magnus Grødem
Magnus Grødem
Attacker46'
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Håkon Helland Hoseth
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem → Daniel Eid
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Kenneth Ikechukwu → Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Samuel Leach Holm → Leonard Owusu
8th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Amin Nouri → S. Sjøkvist
7th Substitution
Event
Simen Rafn → Solomon Owusu
6th Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Teodor Berg Haltvik
Goal disallowed
60'
Event
Robin Rasch → T. Sørås
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Rasmus Eggen Vinge → Martin Tangen Vinjor
5th Substitution
Event
S. Laghzaoui → Johannes Núñez
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Håkon Helland Hoseth → Jonas Lange Hjorth
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Magnus Grødem → Bjørn Martin Kristensen
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Eirik Saunes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Johannes Núñez
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
31'
23'
Event
Teodor Berg Haltvik
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Rocco Shein
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Simen Hestnes
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
10'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fredrikstad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews