Fredericia vs Vejle Boldklub Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Monjasa Park Mon, 13 Apr - 5:00 PM
Superliga
Fredericia Fredericia
2 – 2
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 4 Relegation Round
Felix Winther - 24'
Etim - 58'
Goal
|
Goal
Christian Gammelgaard - 48'
Mikkel Duelund - 52'

CONTEXT

The match between Fredericia and Vejle Boldklub is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. Fredericia took a 1-0 lead into halftime but were unable to hold on as the visitors leveled the score in the second period. Pre-match forecasts indicated a very high likelihood of a draw, and the result ultimately aligned with that projection. A moderate deviation occurred around Fredericia, who were regarded as the stronger side yet had to settle for a single point rather than a victory. Possession was relatively even, with Fredericia at 46 percent and Vejle Boldklub controlling 54 percent. No expected goals data was available to assess further. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across the full match, and the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match view. No red cards were shown, and there were no major disciplinary events to alter the flow of play. Overall the contest delivered a share of the spoils in a game that followed its anticipated path despite the late drama.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fredericia showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Bæk
J. Bæk
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
F. Svendsen
F. Svendsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
J. Hansen
J. Hansen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
J. Mastrup
J. Mastrup
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Fredericia M. Hansen
M. Hansen
VS
Vejle Boldklub C. Nørgaard
C. Nørgaard
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.71
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Odense BK Rank: L
FC København Rank: W
Randers FC Rank: L
Silkeborg IF Rank: W
Randers FC Rank: W
AGF Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Randers FC Rank: D
Odense BK Rank: D
Silkeborg IF Rank: D
AGF Rank: L
Nordsjælland Rank: D
Randers FC Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fredericia
4.47%
Draw
91.93%
Away Vejle Boldklub
3.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fredericia
-0.44%
Draw
+1.29%
Vejle Boldklub
-0.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.06
12.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredericia
Vejle Boldklub
Power Score
24.06
12.14
League Position
10
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fredericia — Opponent-weighted form score
Vejle Boldklub — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fredericia Vejle Boldklub

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fredericia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vejle Boldklub

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fredericia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vejle Boldklub
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.11
25.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.65
45.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fredericia +1.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Vejle Boldklub -1.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
Vejle Boldklub
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fredericia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vejle Boldklub
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fredericia Vejle Boldklub
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredericia Vejle Boldklub
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
Vejle Boldklub
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fredericia
vs
Vejle Boldklub
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fredericia Vejle Boldklub
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fredericia 0.33
Vejle Boldklub 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fredericia Vejle Boldklub
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fredericia 0.05
Vejle Boldklub 0.04
Fredericia
Vejle Boldklub
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Fredericia had peak pressure around 41'.
  • Vejle Boldklub started the game with stronger pressure.
Fredericia Pressure Vejle Boldklub Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Fredericia reached the top pressure at 41' (74.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fredericia Fredericia Home
2 matches
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:01:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
V. Thorsen
Denmark
90 V. Thorsen
S. Crone
Substitution
Denmark
12 S. Crone
A. Nygaard Andersen
Denmark
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
F. Thykær Rieper
Denmark
5 F. Thykær Rieper
J. Jessen
Substitution
Denmark
8 J. Jessen
D. Kristjánsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 D. Kristjánsson
F. Winther
Denmark
6 F. Winther
S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
Substitution
Denmark
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
W. Madsen
Substitution
Denmark
13 W. Madsen
G. Marcussen
Denmark
7 G. Marcussen
F. Ubi Etim
Nigeria
25 F. Ubi Etim
I. Vekič
Slovenia
1 I. Vekič
C. Sørensen
Substitution
Denmark
3 C. Sørensen
V. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
5 V. Jensen
L. Ladegaard Nielsen
Denmark
4 L. Ladegaard Nielsen
L. Flø Borregaard
Denmark
23 L. Flø Borregaard
A. Hjulsager
Substitution
Denmark
17 A. Hjulsager
T. Gundelund
Denmark
2 T. Gundelund
M. Enggård
Denmark
30 M. Enggård
T. Bach
Denmark
16 T. Bach
M. Duelund
Substitution
Denmark
10 M. Duelund
Bismark Edjeodji
Substitution
32 Bismark Edjeodji

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 4 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Monjasa Park
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jonas Bæk
Frederik Svendsen
Jonas Hansen
Jakob Mastrup

Statistics

Possession
Fredericia
48%
Vejle Boldklub
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 37
46 Possession 54
9 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Throwins 21
5 Goal Kicks 11
30 Dribble Attempts 16
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
16 Successful Dribbles 4
75 Ball Safe 82
13 Goal Attempts 9
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 115
2 Counter Attacks 6
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

365 Passes 434
39 Long Passes 60
13 Successful Long Passes 29
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
13 Key Passes 10
285 Successful Passes 355
78 Successful Passes Percentage 82

Defensive

8 Interceptions 5
4 Saves 5
15 Tackles 24
51 Duels Won 54

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 8
21 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jonas Hansen

Starting XI ▼

90
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen Goalkeeper
7.2
3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Adam Nygaard Andersen Defender
6.54
5
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Frederik Thykær Rieper Defender
7.04
8
Jakob Jessen
Jakob Jessen Defender
6.82
14
Anders Dahl
Anders Dahl
Defender78'
6.48
12
Svenn Crone
Svenn Crone Defender
6.51
4
Jeppe Kudsk
Jeppe Kudsk
Defender83'
6.59
6
Felix Winther
Felix Winther Midfielder
7.02
7
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen Midfielder
6.66
13
William Madsen
William Madsen Midfielder
6.69
19
Eskild Munk Dall
Eskild Munk Dall
Attacker55'
6.68
16
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen Midfielder
6.68
97
Oscar Buch
Oscar Buch
Attacker83'
6.86
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson Midfielder
6.63
11
Moses Opondo
Moses Opondo
Midfielder78'
6.45
25
Etim
Etim Attacker
7.03
Referee : Jonas Hansen

Starting XI ▼

1
Igor Vekic
Igor Vekic Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Christian Sørensen
Christian Sørensen Defender
6.72
21
Giorgi Tabatadze
Giorgi Tabatadze
Defender85'
6.51
4
Lasse Nielsen
Lasse Nielsen Defender
6.97
5
Valdemar Lund
Valdemar Lund Defender
6.43
6
Mike Vestergård
Mike Vestergård
Midfielder62'
6.7
23
Lasse Flø
Lasse Flø Defender
6.72
2
Thomas Gundelund
Thomas Gundelund Midfielder
6.59
16
T. Bach
T. Bach Midfielder
6.76
17
Andrew Hjulsager
Andrew Hjulsager Midfielder
6.79
20
Abdoulaye Camara
Abdoulaye Camara
Attacker62'
6.59
30
Mads Enggård
Mads Enggård Midfielder
6.54
10
Mikkel Duelund
Mikkel Duelund Attacker
6.99
19
Wahid Faghir
Wahid Faghir
Attacker74'
6.57
32
Bismark Edjeodji
Bismark Edjeodji Attacker
6.51
7
Christian Gammelgaard
Christian Gammelgaard
Attacker46'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Eskild Munk Dall
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Etim
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
85'
Event
Giorgi Tabatadze → Christian Sørensen
10th Substitution
Event
Oscar Buch → Sofus Johannesen
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Jeppe Kudsk → Svenn Crone
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Anders Dahl → Jakob Jessen
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Moses Opondo → Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
7th Substitution
78'
74'
Event
Wahid Faghir → Mikkel Duelund
5th Substitution
Event
Svenn Crone
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
62'
Event
Abdoulaye Camara → Andrew Hjulsager
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Mike Vestergård → Valdemar Lund
4th Substitution
Event
Etim
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
58'
Event
Eskild Munk Dall → William Madsen
2nd Substitution
55'
52'
Event
Mikkel Duelund
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
Event
Christian Gammelgaard
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Christian Gammelgaard → Bismark Edjeodji
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Bismark Edjeodji
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Felix Winther
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fredericia exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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