Fredericia vs Randers FC Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Monjasa Park
Fri, 13 Mar - 6:00 PM
Superliga
Fredericia
Fredericia
0
3
3
Randers FC
RDF
Full Time
Fri, 13 Mar
6:00 PM
|
Mathias Greve - 9'
Warren Caddy - 12'
Elies Mahmoud - 79'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
The match has finished, with Randers FC securing a commanding 3-0 full-time victory away against Fredericia after taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into halftime. This outcome was fully aligned with the pre-match market, which entered the fixture favoring Randers FC as the stronger team with a 45.1% win probability, compared to Fredericia’s 29.7% and a 25.3% chance of a draw. However, the dominant margin of victory represented a significant deviation in favor of Randers FC relative to baseline expectations. Despite the lopsided final scoreline, Fredericia actually controlled the bulk of the play, holding 56% of the possession compared to Randers FC's 44%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for either team in this fixture, it cannot be definitively determined whether the final outcome was consistent with the underlying xG metrics. The match concluded cleanly without any red cards issued to either side, meaning disciplinary events did not artificially impact the tactical dynamics on the pitch. Ultimately, the team's efficiency shift was perfectly in line with pre-game evaluations, allowing the clinical visitors to translate their minority possession into a highly effective, market-aligned triumph.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Randers FC showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Graagaard
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
4.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
E. Deronjic
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
4.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. Kolding
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
4.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
A. Uslu
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
4.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0.43
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Hansen
VS
R. Bertelsen
0.93
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.14
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Silkeborg IF
Rank: 57
W
Randers FC
Rank: 62
W
AGF
Rank: 70
D
Vejle Boldklub
Rank: 50
W
Odense BK
Rank: 57
L
Brøndby IF
Rank: 66
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC København
Rank: 69
W
Fredericia
Rank: 51
L
Vejle Boldklub
Rank: 50
W
Brøndby IF
Rank: 66
D
AGF
Rank: 70
L
Silkeborg IF
Rank: 58
D
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Fredericia
29.7%
Draw
25.25%
Randers FC
45.06%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.81
61.92
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fredericia
Randers FC
Power Score
43.81
61.92
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
707
405
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Fredericia
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Randers FC
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Fredericia Randers FC
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Fredericia
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Randers FC
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Fredericia
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Randers FC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.02
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Fredericia
-0.83
Efficiency Index
vs
Randers FC
+0.83
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
Randers FC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Fredericia
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Randers FC
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Fredericia
Randers FC
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Fredericia
Randers FC
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fredericia
Randers FC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Fredericia
Fredericia
Home
2
matches
Randers FC
RDF
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:08:50+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-4-1-1
42 E. Green
12 S. Crone
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
5 (C) F. Thykær Rieper
A. Dahl
#1461'
8 J. Jessen
A. Andersen
#1846'
17 D. Kristjánsson
6 F. Winther
G. Marcussen
#762'
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
E. Hansborg-Sørensen
#2982'
10 E. Simonsen
M. Opondo
#1162'
21 J. Holm Lindekilde
25 F. Ubi Etim
1 P. Izzo
M. Sjølstad
#1586'
44 N. Dyhr
4 (C) W. Dammers
3 D. Høegh
24 S. Osman Hansen
F. Lauenborg
#1486'
17 M. Greve
6 J. Björkengren
8 L. Raun Pedersen
L. Lissens
#280'
11 E. Mahmoud
A. Rømer
#2868'
7 M. Themsen
O. Seck
#2580'
10 W. Caddy
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Stadium
Monjasa Park
Capacity
10000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lasse Læbel Graagaard
Esad Deronjic
Danny Kolding
Aydin Uslu
Statistics
Possession
Fredericia
55%
RDF
45%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
3
0
Big Chances Created
3
3
Shots
3
51
Dangerous attacks
33
56
Possession
44
3
Corners
6
19
Free kicks
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
19
Throwins
16
6
Goal Kicks
11
17
Dribble Attempts
8
53
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
1
Hit Woodwork
1
9
Successful Dribbles
4
5
Substitutions
5
76
Ball Safe
80
9
Goal Attempts
7
Attacking
128
Attacks
79
2
Counter Attacks
2
0
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
87
Successful Passes Percentage
78
531
Passes
411
49
Long Passes
74
31
Successful Long Passes
34
63
Successful Long Passes Percentage
46
461
Successful Passes
322
10
Key Passes
7
Defensive
12
Tackles
15
10
Interceptions
11
0
Saves
3
Build-up
20
Total Crosses
14
2
Accurate Crosses
4
Discipline
3
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
18
Lineup
Referee :
Lasse Læbel Graagaard
Manager ▼
M. Hansen
Coach
Starting XI ▼
42
Etienne Green
Goalkeeper
5.37 3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Defender
6.28 5
Frederik Thykær Rieper (C)
Defender
6.45 8
Jakob Jessen
Defender
6.42
14Anders Dahl
5.64Defender61'
12
Svenn Crone
Defender
6.62 6
Felix Winther
Midfielder
7.2 10
Emilio Simonsen
Midfielder
7.23
29Elias Hansborg-Sørensen
6.52Attacker82'
16
Sofus Johannesen
Midfielder
6.19 7Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
6.82Midfielder62'
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Midfielder
6.64 18Andreas Pyndt
6.69Midfielder46'
21
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Midfielder
6.82 11Moses Opondo
6.34Midfielder62'
25
Etim
Attacker
7.22 Substitutes ▼
23
Mads Krogsøe Eriksen
Goalkeeper
4
Jeppe Kudsk
Defender
24
Kristian Pedersen
Defender
9
Patrick Egelund
Attacker
Referee :
Lasse Læbel Graagaard
Manager ▼
R. Bertelsen
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Paul Izzo
Goalkeeper
7.96 3
Daniel Høegh
Defender
7.17 4
Wessel Dammers (C)
Defender
6.84
24
Sabil Hansen
Defender
7.1 44
Nikolas Dyhr
Defender
6.78 15M. Sjølstad
Defender86'
6
John Björkengren
Midfielder
6.77 8
Laurits Pedersen
Midfielder
6.99 11
Elies Mahmoud
Midfielder
2Lucas Lissens
6.44Defender80'
17
Mathias Greve
Midfielder
14Frederik Lauenborg
Midfielder86'
7
Mike Themsen
Attacker
7.37 28André Römer
6.68Midfielder68'
10
Warren Caddy
Attacker
25Ousseynou Fall Seck
6.51Midfielder80'
Substitutes ▼
32
Jannich Storch
Goalkeeper
18
Noah Shamoun
Midfielder
30
Thibault Klidjé
Attacker
33
Cyril Edudzi
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
86'
M. Sjølstad → Nikolas Dyhr
10th Substitution
86'
Frederik Lauenborg → Mathias Greve
9th Substitution
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen → Emilio Simonsen
8th Substitution
82'
80'
Lucas Lissens → Elies Mahmoud
6th Substitution
80'
Ousseynou Fall Seck → Warren Caddy
7th Substitution
79'
Elies Mahmoud
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Emilio Simonsen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Etim
1st Var
75'
68'
André Römer → Mike Themsen
5th Substitution
Moses Opondo → Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
4th Substitution
62'
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen → Sofus Johannesen
3rd Substitution
62'
Anders Dahl → Jakob Jessen
2nd Substitution
61'
52'
Wessel Dammers
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Andreas Pyndt → Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Jakob Jessen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45'
12'
Warren Caddy
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
9'
Mathias Greve
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Randers FC exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.