Feyenoord vs Ajax Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadion Feijenoord Sun, 22 Mar - 1:30 PM
Eredivisie
Feyenoord FEY
1 – 1
Ajax AJA
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Jakub Moder - 85' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Sean Steur - 54'

CONTEXT

The match between Feyenoord and Ajax has officially finished, resulting in a 1-1 full-time draw. After a tightly contested first half that ended scoreless, both sides found the back of the net in the second period to share the points. Despite the level scoreline, the underlying metrics heavily favored the home side. Feyenoord controlled 54% of the possession compared to Ajax's 46%, and generated a dominant 1.74 expected goals (xG) against a mere 0.22 xG for the visitors. Because of this massive disparity, the final outcome was not consistent with the match's xG data. Furthermore, the match featured no red cards, meaning disciplinary issues did not artificially impact the tactical flow. The result also failed to align with pre-match market expectations. Feyenoord entered the contest as clear favorites with a 49.6% win probability, while an Ajax victory sat at 26.9% and a draw at just 23.6%. Consequently, the draw represented a significant deviation from market expectations, ultimately favoring Ajax. While the overall efficiency shift was evaluated as being in line with statistical projections, Ajax will be relieved to secure a point after being thoroughly out-created.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ajax showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Feyenoord R. van Persie
R. van Persie
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 65 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 W
PSV Rank: 85 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 58 W
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 67 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 75 D
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 63 W
AZ Rank: 74 D
Excelsior Rank: 59 D
FC Volendam Rank: 59 W
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 65 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Feyenoord
49.55%
Draw
23.55%
Away Ajax
26.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.39
76.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Feyenoord
Ajax
Power Score
75.39
76.2
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
98
91

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Feyenoord — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Feyenoord Ajax

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Feyenoord

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Feyenoord ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.02
12.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.83
31.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Feyenoord +1.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Ajax -1.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Feyenoord
Ajax
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Feyenoord
vs
Ajax
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Feyenoord Ajax
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Feyenoord Ajax
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Feyenoord
Ajax
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Feyenoord FEY Home
42 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
26
9
Draws
9
26
Losses
7
Goals
52
Goals Scored
89
89
Goals Conceded
52
-37
Goal Difference
+37
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
T. Wellenreuther
Germany
22 (C) T. Wellenreuther
J. Lotomba
Substitution
Switzerland
30 J. Lotomba
T. Watanabe
Japan
4 T. Watanabe
A. Ahmedhodzic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
21 A. Ahmedhodzic
J. Bos
Australia
15 J. Bos
J. Moder
Poland
7 J. Moder
O. Targhalline
Substitution
Morocco
28 O. Targhalline
L. Valente
Italy
10 L. Valente
A. Hadj Moussa
Algeria
23 A. Hadj Moussa
A. Ueda
Substitution
Japan
9 A. Ueda
R. Sterling
Substitution
England
19 R. Sterling
M. Paes
Netherlands
26 M. Paes
T. Tomiyasu
Substitution
Japan
32 T. Tomiyasu
Y. Baas
Netherlands
15 Y. Baas
J. Šutalo
Croatia
37 J. Šutalo
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
S. Steur
Substitution
Netherlands
48 S. Steur
J. Mokio
Belgium
24 J. Mokio
D. Klaassen
Netherlands
18 (C) D. Klaassen
M. Godts
Belgium
11 M. Godts
W. Weghorst
Substitution
Netherlands
25 W. Weghorst
S. Berghuis
Substitution
Netherlands
23 S. Berghuis

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Feijenoord
Capacity
51177
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Danny Desmond Makkelie
Hessel Steegstra
Jan de Vries
Robin Hensgens

Statistics

Possession
FEY
53%
AJA
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 18
54 Possession 46
5 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 8
4 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 0
51 Ball Safe 57
6 Goal Kicks 10
20 Dribble Attempts 18
10 Successful Headers 15
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
18 Throwins 17
0 Injuries 2
10 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
113 Attacks 88

Possession

10 Key Passes 4
484 Passes 425
15 Successful Long Passes 30
82 Successful Passes Percentage 77
42 Long Passes 71
399 Successful Passes 328
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

3 Interceptions 11
19 Tackles 24
1 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
15 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

22
Timon Wellenreuther
Timon Wellenreuther (C) Goalkeeper
6.44
4
Tsuyoshi Watanabe
Tsuyoshi Watanabe Defender
6.8
15
Jordan Bos
Jordan Bos Defender
6.69
21
Anel Ahmedhodzic
Anel Ahmedhodzic Defender
6.64
30
Jordan Lotomba
Jordan Lotomba Defender
7.16
44
Tobias van den Elshout
Tobias van den Elshout
Midfielder85'
6.22
7
Jakub Moder
Jakub Moder Midfielder
7.41
10
Luciano Valente
Luciano Valente Midfielder
6.77
28
Oussama Targhalline
Oussama Targhalline Midfielder
7.14
24
Thijs Kraaijeveld
Thijs Kraaijeveld
Midfielder89'
9
Ayase Ueda
Ayase Ueda Attacker
6.57
17
Casper Tengstedt
Casper Tengstedt
Attacker88'
19
Raheem Sterling
Raheem Sterling Attacker
6.33
16
Leo Sauer
Leo Sauer
Attacker55'
6.69
23
Anis Hadj Moussa
Anis Hadj Moussa Attacker
7.14
Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
6.57
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
6.38
32
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Takehiro Tomiyasu Defender
6.73
5
Owen Wijndal
Owen Wijndal
Defender73'
6.45
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
7.32
18
Davy Klaassen
Davy Klaassen (C) Midfielder
6.66
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
7.12
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur Midfielder
7.4
28
Kian Fitz-Jim
Kian Fitz-Jim
Midfielder68'
6
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
6.82
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
6.91
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg
Attacker55'
6.5
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
6.67
43
Rayane Bounida
Rayane Bounida
Attacker55'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Thijs Kraaijeveld → Oussama Targhalline
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Casper Tengstedt → Ayase Ueda
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Jakub Moder
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
85'
Event
Tobias van den Elshout → Jordan Lotomba
6th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Lucas Rosa
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jordan Lotomba
Penalty awarded
82'
79'
Event
Rayane Bounida
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Anis Hadj Moussa
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
73'
73'
Event
Owen Wijndal → Takehiro Tomiyasu
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Kian Fitz-Jim → Sean Steur
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Youri Baas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Leo Sauer  → Raheem Sterling
3rd Substitution
55'
55'
Event
Rayane Bounida → Wout Weghorst
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Kasper Dolberg → Steven Berghuis
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Sean Steur
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Tsuyoshi Watanabe from Feyenoord committed a handball.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Tobias van den Elshout comes on to replace Jordan Lotomba.
90
Update Update
Owen Wijndal from Ajax committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Luciano Valente from Feyenoord earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Casper Tengstedt from Feyenoord takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Maarten Paes from Ajax makes a save, directing the ball to the right corner. The assist came from Leo Sauer.
90
Update Update
Youri Baas from Ajax committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Owen Wijndal from Ajax committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Feyenoord and Ajax.
90
Update Update
Owen Wijndal from Ajax was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Tobias van den Elshout from Feyenoord committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Tobias van den Elshout from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after a defensive play by Owen Wijndal.
89
Update Update
Davy Klaassen from Ajax committed a foul.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Thijs Kraaijeveld is coming on to replace Oussama Targhalline.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Casper Tengstedt comes on to replace Ayase Ueda.
88
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax earned a free kick on the right flank.
88
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
86
Update Update
Anel Ahmedhodzic from Feyenoord committed a foul.
85
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive play unfolds. Jakub Moder from Feyenoord takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Maarten Paes from Ajax makes a save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Anis Hadj Moussa.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Rosa from Ajax has been shown a yellow card.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Feyenoord 1, Ajax 1. Jakub Moder from Feyenoord successfully scores the penalty, placing a right-footed shot into the top right corner of the net.
82
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Feyenoord.
81
Update Update
Feyenoord has been awarded a penalty! Jordan Lotomba is brought down in the box.
81
Update Update
Kian Fitz-Jim of Ajax has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
80
Update Update
Davy Klaassen from Ajax committed a foul.
80
Update Update
Luciano Valente from Feyenoord earned a free kick in an offensive position.
79
Update Update
Kian Fitz-Jim from Ajax earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rayane Bounida of Ajax has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jordan Bos from Feyenoord takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
79
Update Update
Leo Sauer from Feyenoord committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Leo Sauer from Feyenoord earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
78
Update Update
Rayane Bounida from Ajax committed a foul.
77
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord attempted a shot with his right foot from a challenging angle on the right side.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Owen Wijndal replaces Takehiro Tomiyasu, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
73
Update Update
Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord has fallen to the ground, but the referee believes he is exaggerating the situation and has called it a dive.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord has been shown a yellow card.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
71
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Takehiro Tomiyasu from Ajax.
71
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg from Ajax committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Luciano Valente from Feyenoord was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio from Ajax committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Jakub Moder from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Kian Fitz-Jim comes on to replace Sean Steur.
67
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg from Ajax earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
67
Update Update
Tsuyoshi Watanabe from Feyenoord committed a foul.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after Youri Baas allowed the ball to go out.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord fired a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jordan Lotomba, who set him up with a header.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Anel Ahmedhodzic from Feyenoord attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
62
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Feyenoord after Jorthy Mokio allowed the ball to go out.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after a defensive play by Jorthy Mokio.
61
Update Update
Luciano Valente from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio from Ajax committed a foul.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Youri Baas from Ajax has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Update Update
Oussama Targhalline from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Youri Baas from Ajax committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Leo Sauer from Feyenoord earned a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Lucas Rosa from Ajax committed a foul.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Kasper Dolberg comes on to replace Steven Berghuis.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Rayane Bounida replaces Wout Weghorst.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Leo Sauer replaces Raheem Sterling.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Feyenoord. Sean Steur scores with a powerful right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Steven Berghuis of Ajax fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup came from Mika Godts.
52
Update Update
Feyenoord's Anel Ahmedhodzic committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Steven Berghuis from Ajax earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Oussama Targhalline from Feyenoord committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio from Ajax has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Takehiro Tomiyasu from Ajax committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
47
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Ayase Ueda of Feyenoord had a header from within the six-yard box, aiming to the left side, but it went just wide. The assist came from Anis Hadj Moussa, who delivered a well-placed cross.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Feyenoord 0, Ajax 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Feyenoord 0, Ajax 0.
43
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax has earned a free kick on the left flank.
43
Update Update
Oussama Targhalline from Feyenoord committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Ayase Ueda from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
42
Update Update
Youri Baas from Ajax committed a foul.
40
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Ajax after a play that resulted in Oussama Targhalline giving up possession.
38
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jakub Moder of Feyenoord fires a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ayase Ueda from Feyenoord took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
30
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Mika Godts from Ajax takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
27
Update Update
Jakub Moder committed a foul against Feyenoord.
27
Update Update
Davy Klaassen from Ajax earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Raheem Sterling from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
24
Update Update
Sean Steur from Ajax committed a foul.
23
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Mika Godts from Ajax attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Steven Berghuis.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after a play by Steven Berghuis results in a defensive error.
19
Update Update
Oussama Targhalline from Feyenoord committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Sean Steur from Ajax has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Ajax's goalkeeper Maarten Paes makes a solid save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Oussama Targhalline.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after a defensive play by Jorthy Mokio.
11
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tsuyoshi Watanabe of Feyenoord heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The assist came from Anis Hadj Moussa, who delivered a cross.
10
Update Update
Lucas Rosa from Ajax committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Jordan Bos from Feyenoord earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
9
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Steven Berghuis from Ajax attempted a left-footed shot from over 35 yards after a quick counterattack.
8
Update Update
Wout Weghorst of Ajax was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
8
Update Update
Raheem Sterling committed a foul against a Feyenoord player.
6
Update Update
Wout Weghorst committed a foul against Ajax.
6
Update Update
Tsuyoshi Watanabe from Feyenoord was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
The interruption has ended. They are set to resume play.
4
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Sean Steur from Ajax.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ajax exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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