FC København vs Fredericia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Parken Sun, 22 Mar - 3:00 PM
Superliga
FC København COP
1 Winner 2
Fredericia Fredericia
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 2 Relegation Round
Youssoufa Moukoko - 90+6' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Sofus Johannesen - 23'
Etim - 38'
|
Second yellow card Svenn Crone 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with a 1-1 draw between FC København and Fredericia. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, heavily frustrating the home side. Going into the fixture, the market gave FC København a commanding 70% chance to secure the victory, compared to just a 17.7% probability for a draw and 12.3% for a Fredericia upset. Ultimately, the outcome did not align with the pre-match market. Despite the tied scoreline, the underlying statistics entirely favored the hosts. FC København dominated the contest with 67% possession and generated a staggering 5.85 expected goals (xG). Conversely, Fredericia managed just 33% possession and a modest 1.01 xG. Consequently, the final draw was fundamentally inconsistent with the massive xG differential, as the home side failed to capitalize on their overwhelming offensive production. The match dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card issued to Fredericia, leading to a distinct red card distortion in the second half. Despite going down to ten men, the visitors managed to survive the attacking onslaught. Overall, the match's efficiency shift was recorded as in line with expectations, but FC København's inability to convert their dominant metrics into goals resulted in a highly surprising stalemate.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC København showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
FC København J. Neestrup Hansen
J. Neestrup Hansen
VS
Fredericia M. Hansen
M. Hansen
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.93
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Odense BK Rank: 56 L
Randers FC Rank: 61 L
Odense BK Rank: 58 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 L
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Randers FC Rank: 61 L
Silkeborg IF Rank: 59 W
Randers FC Rank: 61 W
AGF Rank: 71 D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 W
Odense BK Rank: 58 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC København
69.95%
Draw
17.72%
Away Fredericia
12.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.04
45.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC København
Fredericia
Power Score
67.04
45.35
League Position
7
10
Global Rank
276
669

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC København — Opponent-weighted form score
Fredericia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC København Fredericia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC København

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fredericia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC København ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredericia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
63.51
35.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.45
63.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC København +2.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Fredericia -2.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC København
Fredericia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC København
vs
Fredericia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC København Fredericia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC København Fredericia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
FC København
Fredericia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC København COP Home
2 matches
Fredericia Fredericia Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
5
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Rúnarsson
Iceland
31 R. Rúnarsson
G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
Brazil
5 G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
M. Jattah-Njie Jørgensen
Denmark
25 M. Jattah-Njie Jørgensen
J. Suzuki
Japan
20 J. Suzuki
K. Myrie Reyes
Substitution
Costa Rica
18 K. Myrie Reyes
O. Højer
Substitution
Denmark
38 O. Højer
T. Delaney
Substitution
Denmark
27 (C) T. Delaney
M. López Lanfranco
Peru
15 M. López Lanfranco
J. Larsson
Substitution
Sweden
11 J. Larsson
Y. Moukoko
Germany
9 Y. Moukoko
M. Elyounoussi
Substitution
Norway
10 M. Elyounoussi
E. Green
England
42 E. Green
J. Jessen
Denmark
8 J. Jessen
F. Thykær Rieper
Denmark
5 (C) F. Thykær Rieper
A. Nygaard Andersen
Denmark
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
S. Crone
Denmark
12 S. Crone
F. Winther
Substitution
Denmark
6 F. Winther
D. Kristjánsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 D. Kristjánsson
G. Marcussen
Substitution
Denmark
7 G. Marcussen
J. Holm Lindekilde
Substitution
Denmark
21 J. Holm Lindekilde
S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
Substitution
Denmark
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
F. Ubi Etim
Nigeria
25 F. Ubi Etim

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 2 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Parken
Capacity
38065
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Frederik Svendsen
Victor Skytte
Jonas Hansen
Jesper Dahl

Statistics

Possession
COP
65%
Fredericia
35%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
8 Big Chances Created 2
22 Shots 4
191 Dangerous attacks 74
67 Possession 33
14 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
25 Throwins 14
13 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Goal Kicks 10
24 Dribble Attempts 17
0 Assists 2
19 Goal Attempts 7
3 Injuries 2
90 Ball Safe 99
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

151 Attacks 65
1 Counter Attacks 3
7 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

60 Long Passes 48
83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
496 Successful Passes 218
17 Key Passes 5
598 Passes 296
31 Successful Long Passes 14
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

1 Saves 10
27 Tackles 22
6 Interceptions 11

Build-up

13 Accurate Crosses 0
37 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

11 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Frederik Svendsen

Starting XI ▼

31
Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson
Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson Goalkeeper
6.37
5
Gabriel Pereira
Gabriel Pereira Defender
7
20
Junnosuke Suzuki
Junnosuke Suzuki Defender
7
25
Zanka
Zanka Defender
6.37
15
Marcos López
Marcos López Midfielder
7.37
18
Kenan Myrie
Kenan Myrie Midfielder
6.36
16
Robert
Robert
Midfielder46'
7.27
27
Thomas Delaney
Thomas Delaney (C) Midfielder
7.34
39
Viktor Bjarki Dadason
Viktor Bjarki Dadason
Attacker77'
7.04
38
Oliver Højer
Oliver Højer Midfielder
6.35
21
M. Madsen
M. Madsen
Midfielder46'
7.5
9
Youssoufa Moukoko
Youssoufa Moukoko Attacker
7.78
10
Mohamed Elyounoussi
Mohamed Elyounoussi Attacker
6.81
44
Geovanni Vianney
Geovanni Vianney
Attacker88'
11
Jordan Larsson
Jordan Larsson Attacker
7.06
7
Viktor Claesson
Viktor Claesson
Midfielder63'
6.57
Referee : Frederik Svendsen

Starting XI ▼

42
Etienne Green
Etienne Green Goalkeeper
8.4
3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Adam Nygaard Andersen Defender
7.05
5
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Frederik Thykær Rieper (C) Defender
7.24
8
Jakob Jessen
Jakob Jessen Defender
7.14
12
Svenn Crone
Svenn Crone Defender
6.24
6
Felix Winther
Felix Winther Midfielder
7.11
14
Anders Dahl
Anders Dahl
Defender90'
6.77
7
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen Midfielder
6.84
97
Oscar Buch
Oscar Buch
Attacker62'
6.31
16
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen Midfielder
7.08
11
Moses Opondo
Moses Opondo
Midfielder62'
6.36
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson Midfielder
6.69
24
Kristian Pedersen
Kristian Pedersen
Defender68'
6.64
21
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
Jonatan Holm Lindekilde Midfielder
6.8
10
Emilio Simonsen
Emilio Simonsen
Midfielder62'
6.12
25
Etim
Etim Attacker
7.42

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Youssoufa Moukoko
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Svenn Crone
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90'
Event
Anders Dahl → Felix Winther
10th Substitution
Event
Geovanni Vianney → Mohamed Elyounoussi
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Mohamed Elyounoussi
Goal disallowed
83'
Event
Viktor Bjarki Dadason → Thomas Delaney
8th Substitution
77'
68'
Event
Kristian Pedersen → Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
7th Substitution
Event
Viktor Claesson → Jordan Larsson
6th Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Moses Opondo → Sofus Johannesen
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Oscar Buch → Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Emilio Simonsen → Jonatan Holm Lindekilde
5th Substitution
Event
M. Madsen → Oliver Højer
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Robert → Kenan Myrie
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Oliver Højer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
38'
Event
Etim
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Svenn Crone
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Sofus Johannesen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC København exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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