FC Andorra vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi a Encamp Wed, 1 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga 2
FC Andorra AND
3 – 3
Málaga MLA
Full Time Wed, 1 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Josep Cerdà - 51', 57'
Lautaro de León - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Diego Murillo - 22'
Eneko Jauregi - 45+4' (P)
Javi Montero - 82'

CONTEXT

The match between FC Andorra and Málaga has officially finished, ending in a high-scoring 3-3 draw. Málaga initially took control, securing a 2-0 lead by halftime, but the hosts mounted a strong second-half comeback to split the points. FC Andorra heavily dictated the flow of play, maintaining 67% possession while restricting Málaga to just 33% of the ball. Unfortunately, expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both sides, so it cannot be determined whether the final scoreline directly aligned with the underlying chances created. The overall efficiency shift remained strictly in line with general expectations, and neither team suffered from any red card dismissals throughout the contest. Ultimately, the 3-3 outcome failed to align with the pre-match market. The odds initially favored the home side with a 47.8% probability of winning, compared to a 26.6% chance for a draw and just a 25.6% likelihood of an away victory. By unexpectedly securing a point despite less possession, Málaga acted as the deviation team, triggering a significant deviation level of 73.4% to successfully frustrate the pre-match expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Ojaos Valera
A. Ojaos Valera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
C. García Andreu
C. García Andreu
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
B. Jiménez Contreras
B. Jiménez Contreras
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
P. Gòdia Solé
P. Gòdia Solé
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
FC Andorra C. Manso Rubio
C. Manso Rubio
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.87
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 65 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Córdoba Rank: 60 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 60 W
Almería Rank: 71 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: 60 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 D
Granada Rank: 67 W
Albacete Rank: 66 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Andorra
47.81%
Draw
26.64%
Away Málaga
25.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.97
68.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Andorra
Málaga
Power Score
56.97
68.14
League Position
12
4
Global Rank
409
226

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Andorra — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Andorra Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Andorra

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Andorra ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.21
40.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.61
33.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Andorra -0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga +0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Andorra
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Andorra ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Andorra Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Andorra Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Andorra
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Andorra AND Home
3 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-02T00:00:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Owono Ngua Akeng
Equatorial Guinea
13 J. Owono Ngua Akeng
T. Carrique
France
17 T. Carrique
G. Alonso Moreno
Spain
4 G. Alonso Moreno
D. Alende López
Spain
23 D. Alende López
I. García de Albéniz Crecente
Substitution
Spain
19 I. García de Albéniz Crecente
E. Akman
Substitution
Turkey
8 E. Akman
M. Costa
Spain
18 M. Costa
D. Villahermosa Martínez
Spain
6 D. Villahermosa Martínez
L. De León Billar
Uruguay
11 L. De León Billar
Y. Cabanzón de Arriba
Substitution
Spain
3 Y. Cabanzón de Arriba
J. Cerdà Amengual
Substitution
Spain
21 J. Cerdà Amengual
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
Substitution
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
J. Gabilondo Garmendia
Spain
2 J. Gabilondo Garmendia
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Lobete Cienfuegos
Substitution
Spain
24 J. Lobete Cienfuegos
E. Jauregi Escobar
Substitution
Spain
17 E. Jauregi Escobar
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 01, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nou Estadi a Encamp
Capacity
5500
Attendance
1722
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Ojaos Valera
Christian García Andreu
Borja Jiménez Contreras
Pol Gòdia Solé

Statistics

Possession
AND
62%
MLA
38%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 6
7 Shots 10
65 Dangerous attacks 28
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 12
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
10 Successful Dribbles 6
16 Throwins 16
0 Penalties 1
104 Ball Safe 85
12 Goal Attempts 10
1 Assists 2
18 Dribble Attempts 17
4 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

117 Attacks 68
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 76
511 Successful Passes 223
591 Passes 292
56 Long Passes 59
30 Successful Long Passes 31
14 Key Passes 10
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

53 Duels Won 45
7 Interceptions 10
19 Tackles 11
3 Saves 5

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 11
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
17 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Ojaos Valera

Starting XI ▼

13
Jesús Owono
Jesús Owono Goalkeeper
4
Gael Alonso
Gael Alonso Defender
17
Thomas Carrique
Thomas Carrique Defender
19
Imanol García de Albéniz
Imanol García de Albéniz Defender
20
Martí Vilà
Martí Vilà
Defender46'
23
Diego Alende
Diego Alende Defender
6
Dani Villahermosa
Dani Villahermosa Midfielder
8
Efe Akman
Efe Akman Midfielder
24
Théo Le Normand
Théo Le Normand
Midfielder81'
18
Marc Doménech
Marc Doménech Midfielder
3
Yeray Cabanzón
Yeray Cabanzón Attacker
16
Jastin Garcia
Jastin Garcia
Attacker69'
11
Lautaro de León
Lautaro de León Attacker
21
Josep Cerdà
Josep Cerdà Attacker
2
9
Manu Nieto
Manu Nieto
Attacker69'
Referee : Alejandro Ojaos Valera

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
2
Jokin Gabilondo
Jokin Gabilondo Defender
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
18
Dani Sánchez
Dani Sánchez
Defender46'
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio
Attacker64'
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
24
Julen Lobete
Julen Lobete Midfielder
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia
Attacker68'
17
Eneko Jauregi
Eneko Jauregi Attacker
9
Chupe
Chupe
Attacker64'
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Attacker
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño
Attacker73'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Diego Murillo
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Théo Le Normand
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
82'
Event
Javi Montero
Header / 5th Goal
Event
Théo Le Normand → Efe Akman
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Lautaro de León
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
Event
Diego Alende
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
77'
77'
Event
Jokin Gabilondo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Adrián Niño → Rafa Rodríguez
8th Substitution
71'
Event
Josué Dorrio
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Manu Nieto → Josep Cerdà
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Jastin Garcia → Yeray Cabanzón
6th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
David Larrubia → Julen Lobete
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Josué Dorrio → Joaquín Muñoz
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Chupe → Eneko Jauregi
3rd Substitution
Event
Martí Vilà
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Josep Cerdà
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
57'
Event
Josep Cerdà
Header / 2nd Goal
51'
Event
Lautaro de León
Goal disallowed
49'
Event
Lautaro de León
Offside / Goal Disallowed
47'
Event
Martí Vilà → Imanol García de Albéniz
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Dani Sánchez → Rafita Garrido
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Eneko Jauregi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Gael Alonso
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+3'
22'
Event
Diego Murillo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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