Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
Fri, 13 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
2
0
0
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Full Time
Fri, 13 Mar
5:00 PM
Bartuğ Elmaz - 15'
Serginho - 45+1'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
The match between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe has finished with a full-time score of 2-0 in favor of the home side. Fatih Karagümrük did all their scoring early, taking a 2-0 advantage into halftime and defending that lead until the final whistle. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Fenerbahçe entered the contest as the heavy favorites, boasting a 66.2% implied win probability from the betting markets. Conversely, Fatih Karagümrük were given just a 12.9% chance of securing the victory, alongside a 20.9% chance of a draw. Because of this massive upset, the final outcome completely failed to align with the pre-match market. Despite the surprising defeat, Fenerbahçe dictated the tempo and dominated the ball, recording 68% possession compared to a mere 32% for the hosts. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the quality of chances created. However, the overall efficiency shift was calculated to be in line with the flow of the match. The contest was decided purely on the pitch with all 22 men, as zero red cards were issued to either side.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Fatih Karagümrük showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Türkmen
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
B. Duran
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
S. Bahadır
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
H. Aylak
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
A. Stanojević
VS
D. Tedesco
0.5
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.29
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gaziantep F.K.
Rank: 65
D
Trabzonspor
Rank: 78
L
Samsunspor
Rank: 70
D
Kasımpaşa
Rank: 64
L
Antalyaspor
Rank: 62
W
Göztepe
Rank: 75
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor
Rank: 68
W
Göztepe
Rank: 75
D
Alanyaspor
Rank: 70
W
Eyüpspor
Rank: 65
W
Konyaspor
Rank: 67
W
İstanbul Başakşehir
Rank: 75
D
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 7
7
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Fatih Karagümrük
12.93%
Draw
20.88%
Fenerbahçe
66.19%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.97
83.94
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
Power Score
54.97
83.94
League Position
18
2
Global Rank
404
37
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Fenerbahçe
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Fatih Karagümrük Fenerbahçe
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Fatih Karagümrük
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Fenerbahçe
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Fatih Karagümrük
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Fenerbahçe
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.74
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Fatih Karagümrük
+0.00
Efficiency Index
vs
Fenerbahçe
0.00
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Fatih Karagümrük
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Fenerbahçe
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Home
9
matches
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
0
Goals
11
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
11
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:07:41+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-4-2
Match Formation
4-3-2-1
13 (C) I. Grbić
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
94 A. Çınar
Ç. Kurukalıp
#3375'
25 F. Mladenović
D. Johnson
#1175'
70 S. Da Luiz Junior
5 C. Kranevitter
W. Shavy
#8065'
6 B. Elmaz
A. Traore
#8875'
72 B. Kalayci
21 T. Cukur
B. Özcan
#855'
23 S. Larsson
34 F. Günok
O. Aydın
#7079'
22 M. Mercan
24 J. Oosterwolde
14 Y. Demir
A. Brown
#346'
18 M. Müldür
M. Asensio Willemsen
#2146'
5 İ. Yüksek
6 M. Guendouzi Olié
17 N. Kanté
N. Dorgeles
#4546'
9 M. Aktürkoğlu
A. Musaba
#2046'
7 (C) F. Rodrigues Santos
26 S. Cherif
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
Capacity
76092
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mehmet Türkmen
Bersan Duran
Süleyman Bahadır
H. Aylak
Statistics
Possession
Fatih Karagümrük
34%
FEN
66%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
0
7
Shots
7
17
Dangerous attacks
98
32
Possession
68
2
Corners
14
7
Free kicks
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
Match Overview
10
Successful Headers
8
14
Dribble Attempts
24
36
Successful Dribbles Percentage
46
22
Throwins
24
11
Goal Kicks
4
5
Successful Dribbles
11
1
Assists
0
5
Substitutions
5
52
Ball Safe
54
6
Goal Attempts
7
0
Injuries
1
Attacking
63
Attacks
148
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
221
Successful Passes
528
17
Successful Long Passes
28
6
Key Passes
13
295
Passes
600
75
Successful Passes Percentage
88
34
Successful Long Passes Percentage
70
50
Long Passes
40
Defensive
3
Saves
3
19
Tackles
19
7
Interceptions
9
Build-up
6
Total Crosses
48
1
Accurate Crosses
3
Discipline
2
Offsides
3
13
Fouls
5
Lineup
Referee :
Mehmet Türkmen
Manager ▼
A. Stanojević
Coach
Starting XI ▼
13
Ivo Grbic (C)
Goalkeeper
7.37 3
Igor Lichnovsky
Defender
7.61 25
Filip Mladenovic
Defender
6.63 33Çağtay Kurukalıp
6.64Defender75'
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Defender
7.03 94
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Defender
7.62 5
Matías Kranevitter
Midfielder
6.86 6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Midfielder
80Shavy Babicka
6.4Attacker65'
70
Serginho
Midfielder
11Daniel Johnson
6.36Midfielder75'
72
Barış Kalaycı
Midfielder
6.73 88Ahmed Traore
6.52Attacker75'
21
Tiago Çukur
Attacker
6.63 23
Sam Larsson
Attacker
7.22 8Berkay Özcan
6.76Midfielder55'
Substitutes ▼
99
Furkan Bekleviç
Goalkeeper
22
Fatih Kurucuk
Defender
19
Yaya Onogo
Midfielder
24
Burhan Ersoy
Midfielder
15
Abdul Kader Moussa Kone
Attacker
Referee :
Mehmet Türkmen
Manager ▼
D. Tedesco
Coach
Starting XI ▼
34
Mert Günok
Goalkeeper
6.6 14
Yiğit Efe Demir
Defender
7.52 18
Mert Müldür
Defender
6.61 3Archie Brown
6.45Defender46'
22
Levent Mercan
Defender
6.97 70Oğuz Aydın
Attacker79'
6.7
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Defender
6.48
5
İsmail Yüksek
Midfielder
6.46 21Marco Asensio
6.89Midfielder46'
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Midfielder
7.5 7
Fred (C)
Midfielder
6.92 20Anthony Musaba
7.2Attacker46'
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Midfielder
6.44 45Dorgeles Nene
6.22Attacker46'
17
N'Golo Kanté
Midfielder
7.3
26
Sidiki Chérif
Attacker
6.54 Substitutes ▼
13
Tarık Çetin
Goalkeeper
39
E. Biterge
Goalkeeper
37
Milan Škriniar
Defender
67
Kamil Efe
Defender
54
A. Ekici
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+7'
Oğuz Aydın
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
N'Golo Kanté
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
Oğuz Aydın → Levent Mercan
10th Substitution
Çağtay Kurukalıp → Filip Mladenovic
8th Substitution
75'
Daniel Johnson → Serginho
7th Substitution
75'
Ahmed Traore → Barış Kalaycı
9th Substitution
75'
Shavy Babicka → Bartuğ Elmaz
6th Substitution
65'
Berkay Özcan → Sam Larsson
5th Substitution
55'
Serginho
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
50'
Jayden Oosterwolde
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Marco Asensio → İsmail Yüksek
1st Substitution
46'
Archie Brown → Mert Müldür
2nd Substitution
46'
Anthony Musaba → Fred
3rd Substitution
46'
Dorgeles Nene → Kerem Aktürkoğlu
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Serginho
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+1'
Bartuğ Elmaz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Fatih Karagümrük exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.