Falkirk vs St. Mirren Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Falkirk Community Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Falkirk Falkirk
1 Winner 2
St. Mirren STM
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Barney Stewart - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Miguel Freckleton - 18'
Liam Donnelly - 63'

CONTEXT

The match between Falkirk and St. Mirren has finished, with St. Mirren securing a 2-1 away victory. The two sides were even at half-time with a 1-1 scoreline before the visitors found the decisive second-half goal. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Falkirk entered the contest as the stronger team with a 54.1% implied probability of winning, alongside a 25.9% chance of a draw. St. Mirren completely defied their slim 20% pre-market chances to claim the unexpected win. The final result did not align with either the pre-match market or the underlying expected goals (xG) metrics. Falkirk controlled the flow of the game, holding 58% of the possession compared to St. Mirren's 42%. The hosts also generated superior scoring opportunities, edging the xG battle 1.17 to 0.85. Despite Falkirk's statistical advantages, St. Mirren was vastly more clinical in front of the net, finishing the match with an efficiency shift in line with the final result. Both teams maintained their discipline throughout the physical contest, as the game concluded smoothly with zero red cards shown to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Mirren showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
VS
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.72
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 57 W
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Dundee United Rank: 63 L
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Dundee United Rank: 60 L
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Motherwell Rank: 68 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 57 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Falkirk
54.05%
Draw
25.94%
Away St. Mirren
20.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.72
57.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Falkirk
St. Mirren
Power Score
59.72
57.8
League Position
6
10
Global Rank
329
550

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Falkirk St. Mirren

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Mirren
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.45
30.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.36
23.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Falkirk -0.58 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Mirren +0.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
St. Mirren
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Falkirk
vs
St. Mirren
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Falkirk St. Mirren
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Falkirk St. Mirren
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Falkirk
St. Mirren
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Falkirk Falkirk Home
17 matches
St. Mirren STM Away
Match Record
4
Wins
8
5
Draws
5
8
Losses
4
Goals
22
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
22
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
S. Bain
Scotland
19 S. Bain
F. Lissah
England
28 F. Lissah
C. Donaldson
Scotland
6 (C) C. Donaldson
L. Neilson
Scotland
15 L. Neilson
L. McCann
Scotland
3 L. McCann
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
D. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
21 D. Tait
B. Broggio
Substitution
England
11 B. Broggio
C. Miller
Scotland
29 C. Miller
F. Yeats
Substitution
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
B. Stewart
Substitution
16 B. Stewart
S. George
England
1 S. George
L. Donnelly
Northern Ireland
4 L. Donnelly
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
J. Devaney
Substitution
England
8 J. Devaney
S. Tanser
Substitution
England
3 S. Tanser
A. Campbell
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
K. Phillips
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
M. O'Hara
Scotland
6 (C) M. O'Hara
J. Young
Substitution
England
20 J. Young
D. Nlundulu
Substitution
England
14 D. Nlundulu

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Falkirk Community Stadium
Capacity
7937
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ross Hardie
D. Roome
Gordon McCabe
Josh Hay

Statistics

Possession
Falkirk
57%
STM
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 3
52 Dangerous attacks 35
58 Possession 42
7 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 4
30 Throwins 20
9 Successful Headers 22
18 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0
90 Ball Safe 85
1 Assists 2
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
4 Substitutions 4
6 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

97 Attacks 71
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

5 Key Passes 9
347 Successful Passes 228
82 Successful Passes Percentage 73
423 Passes 312
91 Long Passes 64
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
56 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

14 Tackles 18
9 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 1

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

19
Scott Bain
Scott Bain Goalkeeper
6.21
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann Defender
6.37
6
Coll Donaldson
Coll Donaldson (C) Defender
7.05
15
Lewis Neilson
Lewis Neilson Defender
6.42
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
6.52
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
6.99
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
6.85
7
Brian Graham
Brian Graham
Attacker82'
6.48
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
6.83
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker68'
6.62
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
7.37
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright
Midfielder82'
6.39
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.31
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker
6.76
18
Gary Oliver
Gary Oliver
Attacker88'
Referee : Ross Hardie

Starting XI ▼

1
Shamal George
Shamal George Goalkeeper
6.84
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Defender
7.92
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
6.55
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
6.94
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Midfielder
6.98
24
Declan John
Declan John
Defender57'
6.36
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara (C) Midfielder
7.3
8
J. Devaney
J. Devaney Midfielder
7.04
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson
Defender80'
6.5
16
A. Campbell
A. Campbell Midfielder
6.97
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Midfielder
7.01
14
Dan N'Lundulu
Dan N'Lundulu Attacker
6.94
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron
Attacker75'
6.5
20
J. Young
J. Young Attacker
6.5
11
Jonah Ayunga
Jonah Ayunga
Attacker57'
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Alex Gogic
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Killian Phillips
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gary Oliver → Barney Stewart
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Henry Cartwright → Dylan Tait
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Brian Graham → Ben Broggio
7th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Jayden Richardson → J. Devaney
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Mikael Mandron → Dan N'Lundulu
4th Substitution
Event
Ethan Ross → Finn Yeats
3rd Substitution
68'
63'
Event
Liam Donnelly
Header / 3rd Goal
57'
Event
Jonah Ayunga → J. Young
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Declan John → Scott Tanser
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Leon McCann
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
18'
Event
Miguel Freckleton
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Barney Stewart
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexander Gogic of St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 91st minute.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Killian Phillips from St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 89th minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Gary Oliver of Falkirk is being substituted in the 88th minute.
82
Substitution Substitution
Brian Graham from Falkirk is being substituted in the 82nd minute.
82
Substitution Substitution
Henry Cartwright is being substituted for Falkirk in the 82nd minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Jayden Richardson is being substituted for St Mirren in the 80th minute.
75
Substitution Substitution
Mikael Mandron has been substituted for St Mirren in the 75th minute.
68
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Ross of Falkirk is being substituted in the 68th minute.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Liam Donnelly from St Mirren scores a goal in the 63rd minute.
57
Substitution Substitution
Declan John has been substituted for St Mirren in the 57th minute.
57
Substitution Substitution
Jonah Ayunga of St Mirren has been substituted in the 57th minute.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leon McCann of Falkirk received a yellow card in the 21st minute.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Miguel Freckleton scores for St Mirren in the 18th minute!

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: St. Mirren exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews