Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Mon, 13 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Eyüpspor Eyüpspor
1 Winner 2
Samsunspor Samsunspor
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Metehan Altunbaş - 45+2' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Marius Mouandilmadji - 76'
Afonso Sousa - 90+4'
Denis Radu 61' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor is finished, with a full-time score of 1-2. The home side led 1-0 at half-time but could not hold off a second-half response from the visitors, who completed a comeback victory. Pre-match expectations positioned Samsunspor as the stronger team. The result represented a significant deviation for Samsunspor, who overcame an early deficit despite the imbalance. Samsunspor controlled 70 percent possession to Eyüpspor’s 30 percent, though no expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the final outcome aligned with the pre-match projection for the away side. A red card to Eyüpspor created clear distortion in the second half, altering the dynamic as Samsunspor pressed forward and turned the contest in their favor. This event proved decisive in shaping the result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Altay
S. Altay
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
T. Doman
T. Doman
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Y. Kol
Y. Kol
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
S. Şenöz
S. Şenöz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Eyüpspor A. Gerin
A. Gerin
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
0.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Kasımpaşa Rank: L
Kocaelispor Rank: L
Göztepe Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rizespor Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: D
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Eyüpspor
22.93%
Draw
27.26%
Away Samsunspor
49.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Eyüpspor
+22.74%
Draw
+24.88%
Samsunspor
-47.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.54
22.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Eyüpspor
Samsunspor
Power Score
15.54
22.21
League Position
17
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Eyüpspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Eyüpspor Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Eyüpspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Eyüpspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.67
24.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.21
34.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Eyüpspor +1.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Samsunspor -1.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Eyüpspor
Samsunspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Eyüpspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Eyüpspor Samsunspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Eyüpspor Samsunspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Eyüpspor
Samsunspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Eyüpspor
vs
Samsunspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Eyüpspor Samsunspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Eyüpspor 0.32
Samsunspor 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Eyüpspor Samsunspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Eyüpspor 0.03
Samsunspor 0.04
Eyüpspor
Samsunspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Samsunspor had peak pressure around 82'.
  • Eyüpspor started the game with stronger pressure.
Eyüpspor Pressure Samsunspor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Samsunspor reached the top pressure at 82' (78.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Eyüpspor Eyüpspor Home
3 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:01:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. de Freitas Monteiro
Brazil
1 M. de Freitas Monteiro
T. Ulvan
Turkey
17 T. Ulvan
L. Claro dos Santos
Brazil
4 L. Claro dos Santos
S. Yaşar
Turkey
16 S. Yaşar
C. Meraş
Turkey
77 C. Meraş
L. Calegari
Substitution
Brazil
2 L. Calegari
M. Łęgowski
Substitution
Poland
20 M. Łęgowski
B. Gezek
Turkey
55 B. Gezek
D. Radu
Romania
22 D. Radu
C. Raux Yao
Substitution
France
15 C. Raux Yao
M. Altunbaş
Substitution
Turkey
26 M. Altunbaş
O. Kocuk
Turkey
1 O. Kocuk
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
Y. Cift
Substitution
Turkey
55 Y. Cift
J. Wooding Mendes
Substitution
Sweden
2 J. Wooding Mendes
J. Ntcham
Substitution
France
10 J. Ntcham
A. Makoumbou
France
29 A. Makoumbou
Y. Kayan
Substitution
Turkey
20 Y. Kayan
P. Ndiaye
Senegal
19 P. Ndiaye
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji
E. Kılınç
Turkey
11 E. Kılınç

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Capacity
14234
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Selahattin Altay
Turgut Doman
Yasin Kol
Selim Şenöz

Statistics

Possession
Eyüpspor
35%
Samsunspor
65%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 13
28 Dangerous attacks 79
30 Possession 70
2 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 11
5 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 13
16 Throwins 24
8 Successful Dribbles 6
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
74 Ball Safe 86
3 Goal Attempts 5
13 Successful Headers 17
7 Goal Kicks 3
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 0
4 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 2

Attacking

59 Attacks 133

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 90
190 Successful Passes 545
47 Long Passes 48
17 Successful Long Passes 32
265 Passes 605
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
5 Key Passes 11

Defensive

46 Duels Won 46
13 Tackles 12
8 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 0

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 32
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcos Felipe
Marcos Felipe Goalkeeper
6.94
4
Luccas Claro
Luccas Claro Defender
6.75
16
Anıl Yaşar
Anıl Yaşar Defender
6.42
17
Talha Ülvan
Talha Ülvan Defender
6.77
77
Umut Meraş
Umut Meraş Defender
6.68
2
Calegari
Calegari Midfielder
6.77
10
Ángel Torres
Ángel Torres
Attacker75'
6.72
20
Mateusz Legowski
Mateusz Legowski Midfielder
6.57
28
Taşkın İlter
Taşkın İlter
Midfielder84'
6.68
22
Denis Radu
Denis Radu Midfielder
6.57
55
Baran Gezek
Baran Gezek Midfielder
6.81
15
Charles-Andre Raux Yao
Charles-Andre Raux Yao Attacker
6.68
23
Lenny Pintor
Lenny Pintor
Attacker78'
6.76
26
Metehan Altunbaş
Metehan Altunbaş Attacker
6.86
25
Abdou Khadre Sy
Abdou Khadre Sy
Attacker84'
6.58
Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
6.72
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Defender
6.44
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru
Defender83'
6.85
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
7.06
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Defender
6.84
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift Defender
6.61
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković
Defender83'
6.68
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham Midfielder
6.86
77
Afonso Sousa
Afonso Sousa
Midfielder69'
6.74
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Midfielder
6.73
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly
Attacker70'
6.6
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
6.89
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
6.71
11
Emre Kılınç
Emre Kılınç Attacker
6.92
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Attacker
6.84

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Taşkın İlter
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Anıl Yaşar
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Afonso Sousa
5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Afonso Sousa
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Taşkın İlter → Mateusz Legowski
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Abdou Khadre Sy → Metehan Altunbaş
8th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Toni Borevković → Yunus Emre Çift
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Zeki Yavru → Joe Mendes
6th Substitution
Event
Lenny Pintor → Charles-Andre Raux Yao
4th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Ángel Torres → Calegari
3rd Substitution
75'
70'
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly → Yalçın Kayan
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Afonso Sousa → Olivier Ntcham
1st Substitution
Event
Mateusz Legowski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Denis Radu
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
61'
1ST-HALF
Event
Metehan Altunbaş
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+2'
Event
Denis Radu
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
9'
8'
Event
Emre Kılınç
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Samsunspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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