Empoli vs Pescara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Carlo Castellani Sun, 22 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Empoli EMP
4 Winner 2
Pescara PES
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Stiven Shpendi - 9', 65'
Matteo Lovato - 33'
Daniel Fila - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Antonio Di Nardo - 41', 47'
|
Red Card Gennaro Acampora 13'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Empoli securing a 2-1 victory over Pescara. All the scoring occurred in the first half, as the hosts took a 2-1 lead into the break and successfully maintained it until the final whistle. The outcome aligned with the pre-match market, which correctly established Empoli as the stronger team with a 45.3% win probability, compared to a 27.3% chance for both a draw and a Pescara win. In terms of match control, Empoli dictated the tempo with 56% possession, leaving Pescara with 44% of the ball. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, the overall efficiency shift was perfectly in line with match expectations. The dynamics of the game were heavily impacted by a red card shown to Pescara. This disciplinary issue created a noticeable red card distortion in the second half, stifling the visitors' attempts to find an equalizer. Ultimately, the match featured a significant performance deviation of 54.7% favoring Empoli, who comfortably leveraged their pre-match status and numerical advantage to close out the victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Empoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
VS
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Cesena Rank: 55 D
Frosinone Rank: 66 D
Reggiana Rank: 48 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Frosinone Rank: 64 D
Palermo Rank: 64 W
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Avellino Rank: 52 W
Catanzaro Rank: 61 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Empoli
45.33%
Draw
27.33%
Away Pescara
27.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.52
47.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Empoli
Pescara
Power Score
53.52
47.49
League Position
12
20
Global Rank
585
831

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Empoli Pescara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Empoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.13
33.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.41
48.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Empoli +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Pescara -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Pescara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Empoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Empoli Pescara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Empoli Pescara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Pescara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Empoli EMP Home
16 matches
Pescara PES Away
Match Record
7
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
7
Goals
23
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
23
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
M. Curto
Italy
2 M. Curto
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
M. Lovato
Italy
20 (C) M. Lovato
B. Moruzzi
Italy
27 B. Moruzzi
L. Magnino
Italy
8 L. Magnino
G. Yepes Laut
Substitution
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
D. Degl'Innocenti
Substitution
Italy
6 D. Degl'Innocenti
E. Saporiti
Substitution
Italy
70 E. Saporiti
S. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
B. Popov
Substitution
77 B. Popov
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
A. Cagnano
Italy
32 A. Cagnano
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
G. Letizia
Substitution
Italy
3 G. Letizia
F. Caligara
Substitution
Italy
21 F. Caligara
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
G. Acampora
Italy
13 G. Acampora
L. Insigne
Italy
11 (C) L. Insigne
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
A. Di Nardo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Capacity
16284
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Francesco Luciani
Marco Belsanti
Andrea Rapuano
Lucio Felice Angelillo

Statistics

Possession
EMP
55%
PES
45%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 6
59 Dangerous attacks 34
56 Possession 44
6 Corners 9
19 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 6
15 Dribble Attempts 16
0 Hit Woodwork 2
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 4
19 Goal Attempts 11
78 Ball Safe 83
5 Goal Kicks 15
7 Throwins 17
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
3 Assists 0

Attacking

112 Attacks 66
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

442 Passes 359
389 Successful Passes 286
88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
43 Long Passes 58
27 Successful Long Passes 30
21 Key Passes 10
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

4 Saves 5
8 Interceptions 10
20 Tackles 20

Build-up

12 Accurate Crosses 2
27 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Rapuano

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
7.2
2
Marco Curto
Marco Curto Defender
6.07
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato (C) Defender
7.83
27
Brando Moruzzi
Brando Moruzzi Defender
7.94
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
7.63
6
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Duccio Degli Innocenti Midfielder
6.44
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas
Midfielder28'
7.03
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
7.06
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
6.54
18
Andrea Ghion
Andrea Ghion
Midfielder46'
7.44
70
Edoardo Saporiti
Edoardo Saporiti Midfielder
7.87
99
Flavio Bianchi
Flavio Bianchi
Attacker64'
6.59
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Attacker
2
8.55
25
Lorenzo Ignacchiti
Lorenzo Ignacchiti
Midfielder84'
6.48
77
Bogdan Popov
Bogdan Popov Attacker
6.37
17
Daniel Fila
Daniel Fila
Attacker46'
7.25
Referee : Andrea Rapuano

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
6.64
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
6.81
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia Defender
5.91
26
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon
Defender82'
6.45
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
6.63
32
Andrea Cagnano
Andrea Cagnano Defender
6.42
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
6.96
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne (C) Midfielder
6.54
13
Gennaro Acampora
Gennaro Acampora Midfielder
5.6
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
6.44
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer
Midfielder74'
6.56
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara Midfielder
6.27
36
Lorenzo Berardi
Lorenzo Berardi
Midfielder66'
6.53
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker
2
8.11
31
Flavio Russo
Flavio Russo
Attacker82'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lorenzo Ignacchiti → Stiven Shpendi
9th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Flavio Russo → Antonio Di Nardo
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon → Gaetano Letizia
7th Substitution
Event
Daniel Fila
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
80'
74'
Event
Giacomo Olzer → Luca Valzania
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Lorenzo Berardi → Fabrizio Caligara
5th Substitution
Event
Stiven Shpendi
Header / 5th Goal
65'
Event
Flavio Bianchi → Edoardo Saporiti
4th Substitution
64'
49'
Event
Andrea Cagnano
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
47'
Event
Antonio Di Nardo
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Andrea Ghion → Gerard Yepes
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Daniel Fila → Bogdan Popov
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Antonio Di Nardo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Matteo Lovato
Header / 2nd Goal
33'
32'
Event
Antonio Di Nardo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Nicolas Haas → Duccio Degli Innocenti
1st Substitution
28'
Event
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
13'
Event
Gennaro Acampora
Foul / 1st Redcard
13'
Event
Gennaro Acampora
Card adjusted
Event
Stiven Shpendi
Header / 1st Goal
9'
Event
Gerard Yepes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Empoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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